The jump to 43% is almost certainly because of the news that hit Monday. Traders are reacting to a breakthrough on the ethics issue that had been blocking progress.
The White House reportedly agreed to an ethics provision that addresses Democratic demands for restrictions on elected officials profiting from crypto, especially after Trump's 2025 disclosure showed over $1 .4 billion in crypto income . The White House called it "the most comprehensive and wide-ranging ethics provision in history" . Senator Bernie Moreno said the deal is done and it's now up to Democrats to accept it, with the Department of Justice reportedly handling enforcement rather than state attorneys general .
Two other signals moved the odds. Patrick Witt, the White House crypto dealmaker, was supposed to leave for military training on July 27. He deferred it to stay and see the bill through . That signals the administration is still pushing hard for a vote. And the Senate calendar is tight, with the August 7 recess as the real deadline, giving traders a reason to move on momentum .
But the 43% number isn't the full picture. It represents the probability of the bill becoming law by year-end, not just a Senate vote . Kalshi still prices a Senate vote before recess at over 70%, while the full enactment odds on Polymarket are lower . Also, Democrats have not seen the updated bill text yet, and the bill still needs 60 votes, meaning at least seven Democrats must cross the aisle, so far, zero have committed publicly .
The White House reportedly agreed to an ethics provision that addresses Democratic demands for restrictions on elected officials profiting from crypto, especially after Trump's 2025 disclosure showed over $1 .4 billion in crypto income . The White House called it "the most comprehensive and wide-ranging ethics provision in history" . Senator Bernie Moreno said the deal is done and it's now up to Democrats to accept it, with the Department of Justice reportedly handling enforcement rather than state attorneys general .
Two other signals moved the odds. Patrick Witt, the White House crypto dealmaker, was supposed to leave for military training on July 27. He deferred it to stay and see the bill through . That signals the administration is still pushing hard for a vote. And the Senate calendar is tight, with the August 7 recess as the real deadline, giving traders a reason to move on momentum .
But the 43% number isn't the full picture. It represents the probability of the bill becoming law by year-end, not just a Senate vote . Kalshi still prices a Senate vote before recess at over 70%, while the full enactment odds on Polymarket are lower . Also, Democrats have not seen the updated bill text yet, and the bill still needs 60 votes, meaning at least seven Democrats must cross the aisle, so far, zero have committed publicly .