More Bitcoin is now held at a loss than at a profit for the first time since the bear market bottom of 2022.
Bitcoin briefly dropped below $58,000 on July 1 before rebounding above $61,000 by July 3. But the damage beneath the surface is already done. The majority of Bitcoin holders who bought during the 2025 bull run are now underwater.
Over the first half of 2026, the total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH shed 22.84% of its value dropping to $666 billion. Liquidity has narrowed. Capital is concentrating in Bitcoin, stablecoins, and a handful of survival narratives.
Here is what history says about this moment. Every time more BTC was held at a loss than at profit 2018, 2020, 2022 it marked either the bottom or the zone just before it. Not a guarantee. But a pattern that serious investors watch closely.
Bitcoin's options market has undergone a notable shift the most popular call option has slipped by $10,000, suggesting traders are lowering their ceiling for BTC's near-term recovery.
The majority is losing money. The options market is turning cautious. And yet historically, this is exactly where the next cycle begins.
Are we at the bottom right now or is the real pain still ahead? 👇

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