#bitcoin
*Bitcoin Cycles: Current Drawdown Only -50%, Much Shallower Than Past Bears*
*Source*: NYDIG | *Data*: Mt Gox, Bitstamp, Coinbase
*Key Data*
1. *Current Cycle*: Dark blue line = "Cycle 5 - Peak on 10/6/25". *Max drawdown ~-50%* so far, marked by green dot. Only ∼300 days into drawdown.
2. *Historical Comparison*:
- *Cycle 1*: -93% drawdown, 800+ days
- *Cycle 2*: -85% drawdown, 400+ days
- *Cycle 3*: -83% drawdown, 350+ days
- *Cycle 4*: -77% drawdown, 500+ days
Current cycle is the shallowest and fastest recovery so far.
3. *Pattern*: Every cycle follows same shape: Big drop → 1-2 year accumulation → parabolic recovery to new ATH. After bottom, price recovers 0% and makes new highs.
*Bottom Line*: Bitcoin's current -50% drawdown is mild vs history of -80% to -90%. If cycle repeats, bottom may already be in and recovery phase started. But crypto = past ≠ guarantee.
*Disclaimer*: Educational only. Not financial advice. Cycles are based on past data. Black swans, regulation, or macro can break patterns. Always use risk management. DYOR.
*Bitcoin Cycles: Current Drawdown Only -50%, Much Shallower Than Past Bears*
*Source*: NYDIG | *Data*: Mt Gox, Bitstamp, Coinbase
*Key Data*
1. *Current Cycle*: Dark blue line = "Cycle 5 - Peak on 10/6/25". *Max drawdown ~-50%* so far, marked by green dot. Only ∼300 days into drawdown.
2. *Historical Comparison*:
- *Cycle 1*: -93% drawdown, 800+ days
- *Cycle 2*: -85% drawdown, 400+ days
- *Cycle 3*: -83% drawdown, 350+ days
- *Cycle 4*: -77% drawdown, 500+ days
Current cycle is the shallowest and fastest recovery so far.
3. *Pattern*: Every cycle follows same shape: Big drop → 1-2 year accumulation → parabolic recovery to new ATH. After bottom, price recovers 0% and makes new highs.
*Bottom Line*: Bitcoin's current -50% drawdown is mild vs history of -80% to -90%. If cycle repeats, bottom may already be in and recovery phase started. But crypto = past ≠ guarantee.
*Disclaimer*: Educational only. Not financial advice. Cycles are based on past data. Black swans, regulation, or macro can break patterns. Always use risk management. DYOR.