NYDIG said Bitcoin’s 2025–2026 drawdown is increasingly resembling the four-year cycle corrections seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022. If the current decline follows the depth and duration of previous bear markets, BTC could reach a cycle low near USD 38,000–USD 39,000 later this year. Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of about USD 126,000 and has underperformed assets including U.S. Treasuries, silver and the Swiss franc this year.