I don't think Bitcoin is out of the bear market yet. The overall trend still looks weak, and most technical signals still point lower. The interesting part for me isn't the price itself. It's the way the selling is changing. The market is still falling, but it doesn't feel as aggressive as it did before. That catches my attention because trends often slow down before they turn around.
Jamie Coutts from Real Vision sees something similar. He believes Bitcoin is moving through the later stage of this bear market, even though it isn't over yet. Bitcoin is trading around $63,000, almost 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. His point isn't that Bitcoin has recovered. It's that the strongest selling pressure may already be behind us.
One number stood out to me. Bitcoin's volatility is about 50% lower than it was during the previous bear market. I don't automatically see lower volatility as a bullish signal. I see it as a sign that panic is becoming less intense. The market can still move lower, but the way it moves is starting to change.
Another point I found interesting is momentum. Coutts says longer-term momentum is starting to improve even while the overall market remains bearish. That makes sense to me because momentum often changes before price does. Slower selling doesn't mean a new bull market has started, but it's usually one of the first things I watch.
I also agree that this isn't only about global liquidity. On-chain activity has slowed down along with the broader market, which tells me demand has cooled as well. When both liquidity and network activity weaken together, expecting a quick recovery becomes much harder.
The long-term forecasts are where I'm more careful. Some people still talk about Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030, but Coutts is more comfortable with $200,000 to $250,000 over the next two or three years. I find that view more realistic because it's based on things we can actually measure instead of trying to predict the distant future.
My view is simple. I'm spending less time trying to guess the exact market bottom and more time watching whether market behavior is changing. I still don't see enough evidence to call a new bull market. What I do see are early signs that the bear market may be running out of strength, and for me, that's a much more useful signal to watch. NFA.DYOR.
