Warum handeln Millionen von Menschen immer wieder?

CryptoMaksymus · 2026-07-06T14:56:56.000Z

In den letzten Jahrzehnten wurden umfangreiche Studien über Privatanleger in den USA, Europa, Indien, Brasilien und Taiwan durchgeführt. Trotz unterschiedlicher Märkte, Länder und Zeiträume war das Fazit fast dasselbe: Etwa 70–90% der Privatanleger verlieren langfristig Geld, und nur eine sehr kleine Gruppe von Menschen schafft es, dauerhaft stabile Gewinne zu erzielen. Es scheint, dass das Interesse am Trading nach einer solchen Datenmenge allmählich nachlassen müsste. Aber das Gegenteil passiert. Jeder neue Bullenmarkt bringt Millionen neuer Teilnehmer hervor, die aufrichtig davon überzeugt sind, dass ausgerechnet sie es sein werden, die Erfolg haben.

 Over the past decades, major studies of retail traders have been conducted in the USA, Europe, India, Brazil, and Taiwan.  Despite different markets, countries and time periods, the conclusion was almost the same: approximately 70–90% of retail traders lose money in the long term, and only a very small group of people manage to make stable money.
 It would seem that after such a volume of data, interest in trading should gradually decrease.  But the opposite happens.  Each new bull market brings millions of new participants who sincerely believe that it is they who will succeed.
 Why does this happen?  Because the problem rarely lies in the absence of information.  It lies in how our thinking works.  Most people know that there are few successful traders.  But almost everyone believes that it is he who will be able to get into their number.
 We almost always see winners and almost never see losers.  We are shown a trader who turned a small amount into a fortune, interviews with successful investors, beautiful profitability charts and photos of an expensive life.  But practically no one shows thousands of people who lost money, closed their account and simply disappeared from the information field.
 As a result, a very natural thought arises in a person: "Yes, the majority loses, but I, most likely, will be among the excluded."  And this is where the main error of thinking begins.
 Instead of the question "What usually happens to people who do the same thing?"  we begin to ask a second question: "What if it happens that I will succeed?"  It seems like a small thing, but it is at this moment that we stop leaning on reality and start leaning on hope.
 Moreover, this mechanism works not only in trading.  For the same reason, people open restaurants, start startups, buy franchises, start a new business or go to Gumroad with the confidence that their product will be the exception.  They study success stories, but rarely study the fate of the majority.
 The more I read long-term studies, the more convinced I am of one simple principle.  Any serious decision should start not with inspiring history, but with statistics.  First, understand what usually happens to people who have already gone through this path.  And only then honestly answer the question: what exactly is so different in my situation that it gives reason to expect the second result?  If there is no such answer, then, most likely, we are not analyzing reality, but simply hoping to be among the rare exceptions.  That is why rational thinking begins not with optimism, but with attention to reality.