Der XRP-Preis bewegt sich still und heimlich in einen besorgniserregenden Punkt. In den letzten 30 Tagen ist der Preis um etwa 9 % gefallen, der Momentum scheint zum Stillstand gekommen zu sein, während die positiven sozialen Gespräche rund um den Token deutlich negativ geworden sind. Auf den ersten Blick mag diese Situation wie eine Schwäche erscheinen, aber XRP ist bekannt dafür, einer der Coins zu sein, die am besten abschneiden, wenn die Begeisterung verloren geht.
Diesmal könnte das Problem, das die Anlegerstimmung nach unten zieht, möglicherweise die Bedingung sein, die den Boden für die nächste Bewegung bereitet. Darüber hinaus könnte diese Bewegung erneut von einer Schlüsselgruppe von Haltern angeführt werden.
Problem: Positive Investor Sentiment Collapsed When Short-Term Investors Exited
The main issue is not the price. The problem is investor sentiment.
XRP’s positive social sentiment has fallen to its lowest level in the last three months. A very rapid decline was experienced from the recent peak. This metric tracks how often positive comments about XRP are made on social platforms. When sentiment crashes, it indicates that rather than panic, there is a fatigue within the community.
History shows that this issue is significant.
A similar sentiment decline in mid-October triggered an increase of approximately 15% within days. At the beginning of November, another dip in positive sentiment brought a 17% rise within a week. Towards the end of November, the same pattern was observed; while sentiment dipped, the price rose by approximately 14%.
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This time, the sentiment decline is deeper than the previous lows.
This sentiment decline may be triggered by short-term holders. According to HODL Waves data, which tracks how long coins are held; wallets holding XRP for between one day and one week have significantly reduced their share in supply. This group held approximately 2.97% of the total supply at the beginning of the month, but now this figure has dropped to 1.18%. This means there is a decrease of more than 60%.
To explain it straightforwardly, this money, which is likely an individual investor that enters and exits quickly, has lost interest and turned to another direction. This is the main issue suppressing sentiment in XRP.
Solution: Long-Term Investors Are Selling Less
Here is where the story diverges.
While short-term holders are exiting, long-term holders are moving in the opposite direction. Data tracking the net position change of long-term holders shows that the selling pressure from these wallets has significantly decreased.
At the beginning of the month, long-term holders were selling approximately 216 million XRP daily. Now, this figure has regularly decreased to around 103 million XRP per day. In other words, sales transactions have decreased by more than half.
This is important because long-term holders are generally not the late ones but the early movers. When sentiment is low, slowing down distribution often means quiet accumulation or strategic patience.
The main problem for XRP is the community's indifference. The solution is; experienced holders are no longer producing material for this indifference.
XRP Price Levels: Is the Solution Working?
If this sentiment-based scenario occurs once again, XRP price levels will reveal the situation in a short time.
The next immediate target is the resistance at $2.03. There is a potential rise of around 8% from current levels to there. If this area is surpassed, a new momentum can occur towards the resistance bands of $2.09 and $2.17, where previous rises stalled.
In downward movements, XRP must maintain the main support of $1.77. If this support is broken, the sentiment-based expectation becomes invalid and the message that long-term holders have given up on holding spreads in the market.
For now, the technical structure continues to hold.
XRP’s biggest problem is the complete disappearance of positive investor sentiment. However, historical data shows that when optimism fades, the first to exit are the weak hands, and strong hands come into play. If this cycle repeats once more, the same issue that is pressuring XRP’s price today may become the key for the next move in the upcoming period.
