TL;DR

The Fear and Greed Index stands at 24 (extreme fear) on November 13, 2025, close to the record low of 15 on March 11, 2025.

Despite Bitcoin holding above $100,000, on-chain data shows strong whale accumulation, record net outflows, and a 14% decline in exchange reserves this year.

Bitcoin’s individual Fear & Greed Index is 15, the lowest since February 27, 2025.

Historical Context of Extreme Fear

A BTC Fear & Greed reading below 20 often marks major market bottoms.

The level of 15 on March 11, 2025 marked the yearly low around $80,000.

The market then rebounded 40% to $112,000 within two weeks.

Historical extreme fear events:

• COVID crash (Mar 2020): Index ~10, BTC from $8,000 → $4,000 → +1,400%

• Terra Luna collapse (Jun 2022): Index 8, bear-market bottom at $18,000

• Crypto Winter (Dec 2018): Index 5, bottom at $3,200

Current Market Sentiment

The total crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 24, showing “irrational fear” despite BTC remaining in the six-figure zone — a classic reversal condition.

On-Chain Data: Silent Accumulation

Despite negative sentiment, blockchain data tells a different story:

• Record net outflow: –7,500 BTC/day (14D SMA), lowest in 3 years

• Exchange reserves down: 2.39M BTC — lowest in 7 years, down 14% YTD

• Whale accumulation: +45,000 BTC this week — 2nd largest in 2025

• Long-term holders: absorbing supply from short-term sellers capitulating at a loss

Bitcoin is trading below all major moving averages, but the daily RSI is near oversold (30), a common reversal zone.

Derivatives Market

• Open interest: –1.57% (24h), leverage leaving the system

• Max Pain: $103,000 (Nov 13), acting as resistance

• Long liquidations: 83% ($133M), signaling capitulation

Conclusion: Opportunity Within Fear

Extreme fear + positive on-chain accumulation creates a strong contrarian setup.

Historically, 80% of Fear & Greed readings below 25 lead to 10–30% rallies within 1–4 weeks.

Bullish scenario:

• Hold above $101,500 → targets $103,000 → $110,000

Risk scenario:

• Break below $100,000 → cascade liquidations toward $98,000

As Warren Buffett said:

“Be greedy when others are fearful.”

And right now, the market is deeply fearful.