The success of the Venezuelan operation may have gone to the White House's head, but the attempt to apply the same pressure model to Tehran has collided with the harsh reality of the Strait of Hormuz and the ideological resilience of the IRGC.
Vertigo from Success
The beginning of the year proved more than successful for the Donald Trump administration. The operation that led to the de facto capture and extradition of Nicolás Maduro was perceived by the international community and the U.S. domestic audience as a demonstration of exceptional effectiveness. Riding this wave and intoxicated by foreign policy triumph, the White House undertook a sharp escalation on the Iranian front. Airstrikes under the standard pretext of "preemptive self-defense" were intended to end the decades-long standoff. It was expected that Iran would flinch.
However, Tehran responded asymmetrically and with lightning speed. Instead of panic, there followed a blockade of approximately 20% of the world's oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Attempts by the administration to push through the situation with sheer authority and threats to destroy civilian infrastructure (bridges and power plants) ran into a brick wall.
The IRGC Factor and Forty Years of Sanctions Immunity
Washington's main miscalculation lies in a failure to understand the nature of the Iranian regime. This is a state that has existed under sanctions pressure for over four decades. Its economy and military doctrine are adapted to permanent crisis, and the ideology of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—the structure that de facto runs the country—is built on the foundation of struggle against the "Great Satan."
Threats to strike Iran's bridges and power grids do not work as a deterrent. Firstly, they only strengthen the position of hardliners within the Iranian leadership. Secondly, the consequences of such strikes for the initiator of the conflict appear catastrophic. Tehran has made it unequivocally clear that in the event of an attack, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will also be closed. The combined blockade of two key arteries of global energy trade is guaranteed to crash the global economy and send stock markets into a steep dive.
The Domestic Front: Time as the Enemy
Trump faces the classic "hawk's" dilemma. On one hand, the use of full-scale military force risks uncontrollable chaos in the Middle East, a wildfire across the region's oil fields, and a "black swan" event on Wall Street. On the other hand, retreat and concessions to Iran against the backdrop of the upcoming midterm elections will be perceived by the electorate and his opponents as fatal weakness. The President requires the unconditional surrender of his adversary—a scenario absolutely unacceptable to Tehran.
Realizing that the main threat to his position is not the Iranian navy but the chart of oil prices and the Dow Jones Index, Trump has chosen a tactic of information intervention. For the past three weeks, the information space has been flooded with dozens of daily messages about "imminent negotiations" and "progress." The extension of the ceasefire is not a gesture of goodwill toward Iran; it is an attempt to buy time to stabilize the domestic U.S. market.
Dry Facts vs. The Narrative
If one abstracts from the rhetoric, the facts remain relentless: the Strait of Hormuz is de facto closed to large-capacity tankers. White House statements about having an "infinite amount of time" are classic bluff. Currently, oil prices are being held back from explosive growth solely by traders' faith in this bluff. As soon as the market realizes the insolubility of the stalemate, the reckoning will be brutal.
Trump has backed himself into a strategic dead end. He cannot strike—the consequences would destroy the American and global economy right before the elections. He cannot retreat—that would destroy his image as a "strong leader."
Forecast: The Compressed Spring
Experts and observers note that the spring is being compressed to its limit. In the near future, there is a high probability of two parallel shocks: a sharp correction in the stock market with a particularly severe blow to the technology sector (which fades into the background amid a geopolitical storm) and an escalation of hybrid warfare in the Middle East with unpredictable consequences for global energy security. The administration is trying to postpone the inevitable, but unlike oil, time has a tendency to run out.