posthalvingcycle

Bitcoin lags S&P 500. AI capital diversion explains the gap.

Why bitcoin's disconnect from record-high stocks won't last. Researchers at Schwab and Hashdex point to AI investments drawing capital away from digital assets. Bitcoin still tracks its typical post-halving trajectory despite the divergence from equity markets.

The ~30% gap between bitcoin's performance and record-high stocks has sparked debate about correlations breaking down. Historic post-halving cycles show Bitcoin typically outpaces equities 12-18 months after the event. The current setup mirrors 2016 and 2020 patterns where capital rotation into emerging tech sectors temporarily suppressed crypto prices before eventual convergence.

AI infrastructure spending reached unprecedented levels in 2026, with data centers and compute networks absorbing significant investment flows. Institutional portfolios rebalanced toward semiconductor and cloud infrastructure names, reducing exposure to speculative digital assets. This macro capital allocation shift explains the temporary disconnect—not a fundamental breakdown in Bitcoin's store-of-value thesis. On-chain metrics remain stable with long-term holders maintaining positions.

Will the correlation between Bitcoin and equities resume, or has the market structure changed permanently?

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