cryptoanalysis

Hier ist eine brutale Wahrheit, die die meisten Menschen nicht hören wollen: 90 % der Investoren, die einen Lehrbuch-4-Jahres-Bitcoin-Zyklus erwarten, könnten enttäuscht werden.
Vergessen Sie die vereinfachte Denkweise von "Halbierung bedeutet sofortigen Pump."
Bitcoin nähert sich einem Scheideweg, an dem es entweder seine Rolle als wahres Digitales Gold festigen oder unter dem Gewicht institutioneller Erwartungen zerdrückt werden könnte.
🛑 WARUM 2026 MÖGLICHERWEISE NICHT DEN "KRYPTO-WINTER" BRINGT, DEN SIE ERWARTEN
Laut aktuellen Erkenntnissen von Grayscale und Coinbase Institutional verliert der traditionelle Vier-Jahres-Zyklus allmählich an Relevanz. Warum?

Während alle vorsichtig auf den Bildschirm schauen, beweist Bitcoin erneut, dass es unbestritten der König der digitalen Vermögenswerte ist. Nach den letzten Bewegungen stehen wir vor einem interessanten Chartbild:
🔍 Ein Blick auf das Chart:
Analyse des Bitcoin-Charts (Tagesrahmen)
1. Unterstützungszonen:
Wir beobachten eine starke Stabilität über den Niveaus von 80.636 $, die Zone, aus der der Preis kürzlich zurückgeprallt ist (der letzte klare Tiefpunkt im Chart), und es ist ein Bereich, den die Bullen energisch verteidigen, um einen Rückgang in die siebziger Jahre zu verhindern.

After months of persistent downside pressure, XRP has entered a phase of visible stabilization. The market no longer appears chaotic or panic-driven. Instead, price action suggests consolidation, with no fresh breakdowns so far. Although the broader downtrend that began in late July technically remains intact, repeated buying responses around the $1.8 level indicate that bearish momentum is gradually weakening.
At the same time, one structural factor continues to support the market: capital inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds have now extended for seven consecutive weeks. This ongoing flow is reshaping supply dynamics and raising the question of whether the current stabilization can evolve into a broader price recovery.

ETF Inflows Are Reshaping Supply and Absorbing Sell Pressure
Recent XRP price behavior appears to be driven more by sustained capital flows than by short-term speculative trading. XRP ETFs have recorded consistent net inflows for seven straight weeks, averaging roughly $64 million per week. This steady absorption gradually reduces circulating supply and encourages price consolidation.
Crucially, this inflow has not triggered an aggressive rally. Instead, demand seems to be quietly absorbing sell-side liquidity rather than chasing higher prices. At the same time, downside moves have become increasingly shallow, with each pullback losing strength.
Total assets under management in XRP ETFs are now approaching $1.24 billion, signaling longer-term positioning rather than fast-moving capital prone to quick exits. This flow profile helps explain why XRP has held key structural levels despite broader macro-market volatility.
Adding to the longer-term narrative, Standard Chartered has projected that XRP could rise by as much as 330% by 2026. This outlook is based on the cumulative impact of continued ETF participation and improving regulatory clarity, rather than on near-term price acceleration. Still, this scenario depends on the price structure continuing to reflect accumulation rather than a return to distribution.

Price Structure Points to a Controlled Recovery Phase
From a technical perspective, XRP has been trading within a descending regression channel since late July. This pattern typically reflects an orderly decline rather than forced liquidation. The channel has consistently capped upside attempts while gradually guiding price lower.
However, the lower boundary of this channel has become increasingly important. XRP has repeatedly entered a demand zone near $1.8, where selling pressure has slowed and buyers have consistently absorbed supply. Historically, this area aligns with zones where downside momentum has tended to fade rather than accelerate.
Following the latest bounce, XRP moved back toward the midpoint of the regression channel—an area often associated with balance, where market control can begin to shift. Momentum indicators have started to align with this behavioral change. The MACD crossed its signal line while price held above the $1.8 base, reinforcing the view that buyers are defending higher lows rather than selling into minor rallies.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.86, remaining above the key demand zone. Price compression is increasing, volatility is narrowing, and directional energy appears to be building.
If buyers continue to defend the $1.8 level, XRP could move on to test higher supply zones within the channel. The outcome in those areas will depend on whether buying pressure continues to outweigh profit-taking. Should that imbalance persist, the current structure would allow for a gradual move back toward the $3 level once the recovery transitions into a continuation phase.
Conversely, a decisive breakdown below $1.8 would invalidate this setup and reopen the risk of a renewed extension of the broader downtrend.

Summary
XRP appears to be transitioning from a prolonged decline into a stabilization phase. This process is supported by sustained ETF inflows and repeated defenses of the $1.8 demand zone. Rather than signaling a sudden reversal, current conditions point to a slow, absorption-driven recovery.
If buying pressure continues to dominate over distribution as price moves into overhead supply, the broader structure favors a gradual return toward $3. However, a clear loss of support at $1.8 would negate this scenario and restore downside risk.

#xrp , #CryptoMarket , #CryptoAnalysis , #altcoins , #cryptotrading

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