$FIL just printed its lowest daily close EVER — down 10% with no FIL news behind it
Filecoin (FIL) is at $0.6161, down 10.4% in 24h (range $0.5863-$0.6918, Binance volume $16.3M — about 2x its 30-day daily average of $8.0M). Yesterday's close was $0.6176, down 13.0% on the day — the lowest daily close in FIL's entire Binance history since its Oct 2020 listing. Snapshot 11:49 PKT, 15 Nov 2026. BTC $64,480 (-4.3%), ETH $1,795 (-5.8%). Fear and Greed 10, Extreme Fear.
FIL is the token of Filecoin, the decentralized storage network — FIL pays for storage. About 99.7% below its $236.84 all-time high; market cap near $522M, rank 97.
Technicals (closed candles): price below EMA20 $0.8079, SMA50 $0.9694 and SMA200 $0.8610. RSI 14 is 17.7 — deeply oversold. 7 days -21.7%, 30 days -46.8%.
Catalyst: none confirmed for FIL itself. No FIL-specific news per CoinStats and CoinMarketCap AI — this is the broad selloff (hot US CPI, a December Fed hike now priced in, ETF outflows, heavy liquidations). Background, not today's driver: vesting ended 15 Oct, cutting new supply growth about 75%; Solstice upgrade live 19 Oct; Filecoin Onchain Cloud launches 18 Nov; paying customers rising (156, up from 115 in 90 days).
Expectations (not a guarantee): no Deribit options market for FIL, so odds come from a base-rate study on FIL's own daily candles — fingerprint: daily close down 8% or more, symmetric plus/minus 8% barriers ($0.6670 / $0.5682), 7-day window, de-clustered, current episode excluded, full Binance history (2,222 closed candles). N=77: DOWN first 35 (45%), UP first 33 (43%), FLAT 9 (12%). Higher after 7 days: 27 of 77 (35%). Cross-checks: minus 4% N=185 DOWN 52% / UP 47%; minus 12% N=30 DOWN 50% / UP 43%. No edge — a coin flip with a slight down lean.
Plan: do not chase. Dip-long only in the $0.5863-$0.6176 zone, stop on a daily close below $0.5682. Breakout-long only on a daily close above $0.6670. Targets: $0.6670, then $0.71, then $0.8079 (EMA20). A daily close below $0.5682 opens $0.50 next. Tiny size, spot only, no leverage. Confidence: Low.
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