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Crude oil is caught between hopes of a US-Iran deal and escalation risks. What's next?
Crude oil entered a consolidation phase as markets await fresh US-Iran developments. A breakthrough in negotiations could trigger a sharp selloff, taking prices back towards pre-war levels. Conversely, renewed US military strikes could push oil higher on increasing geopolitical risk premium, although a limited operation followed by a US withdrawal could make the rally short-lived.
Crude oil has entered a consolidation phase recently as markets await new US-Iran developments. So far, nothing has changed.
Trump told CNN that the US is unlikely to resume military action against Iran if negotiations make sufficient progress on Tehran’s nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, he stressed that any decision to avoid further strikes would depend on Iran agreeing to a strong enough deal, adding that the US remains ready to take military action if necessary.