silver

There’s an old saying on the street: "Markets climb a wall of worry, but they slide down a slope of hope." In 2025, silver speculators were climbing that wall with ice picks, delivering a staggering 170% rally. But as we settle into 2026, the hope is fading, and the slope is getting slippery.

While silver is currently up 11% year-to-date, it’s a shadow of its former self, trading roughly 40% below its January peak of ₹4,20,048 on the MCX. Gold, by contrast, is proving why it's the king. Up 16% YTD and having weathered a mere 18% correction, it offers the stability that silver currently lacks.

The narrative shift is clear: the "crowded trade" in silver has unwound. According to Kunal Shah of Nirmal Bang, the cocktail of leveraged positions and China-linked speculation that fueled the white metal’s historic run has been drained. We are looking at a market where supply deficits are old news and prices are no longer driven by scarcity, but by sentiment. Prathamesh Mallya of Angel One suggests that while silver's sprint is over, gold's marathon is just hitting its stride.

For the tactical trader, the gold-silver ratio is the compass. Currently sitting in no-man's-land, it signals that the days of easy money in silver are behind us. The metal isn't broken—industrial demand from solar and 5G infrastructure provides a solid floor—but the ceiling is low. In 2026, deep liquidity and central bank accumulation make gold the anchor trade, while silver remains a volatile option play.
$XAU
$XAG

#GoldSilverRally #silver #gold

The Great Rotation: Why Silver's 2025 Glory Won't Shine in 2026
There’s an old saying on the street: "Markets climb a wall of worry, but they slide down a slope of hope." In 2025, silver speculators were climbing that wall with ice picks, delivering a staggering 170% rally. But as we settle into 2026, the hope is fading, and the slope is getting slippery.
While silver is currently up 11% year-to-date, it’s a shadow of its former self, trading roughly 40% below its January peak of ₹4,20,048 on the MCX. Gold, by contrast, is proving why it's the king. Up 16% YTD and having weathered a mere 18% correction, it offers the stability that silver currently lacks.
The narrative shift is clear: the "crowded trade" in silver has unwound. According to Kunal Shah of Nirmal Bang, the cocktail of leveraged positions and China-linked speculation that fueled the white metal’s historic run has been drained. We are looking at a market where supply deficits are old news and prices are no longer driven by scarcity, but by sentiment. Prathamesh Mallya of Angel One suggests that while silver's sprint is over, gold's marathon is just hitting its stride.
For the tactical trader, the gold-silver ratio is the compass. Currently sitting in no-man's-land, it signals that the days of easy money in silver are behind us. The metal isn't broken—industrial demand from solar and 5G infrastructure provides a solid floor—but the ceiling is low. In 2026, deep liquidity and central bank accumulation make gold the anchor trade, while silver remains a volatile option play.
$XAU
$XAG
#GoldSilverRally #silver #gold

.Historic Peak and Sharp Correction Silver prices surged to a new historical high, reaching over $121 per ounce. However, it then plunged significantly, with some reports indicating a drop of nearly 40% from its peak in a single day, settling around $74-$85. Other sources mention a 31% drop in one day or a 37% drop.
Briefly Outshining Tech Giants Before its sharp decline, silver's market capitalization had soared, briefly surpassing major tech companies like Nvidia, and even Apple, to become the world's second or third largest asset after gold. This was a significant shift, highlighting a growing interest in tangible assets.
Driving Factors Several factors contributed to this volatility, including:
Industrial Demand: Explosive growth in industrial applications, particularly from green energy (solar panels, electric vehicles) and semiconductors.
Supply Constraints: Persistent supply deficits and issues like China's export restrictions.
Monetary Factors & Geopolitical Tensions: Central bank policies, concerns about inflation, and global uncertainties encouraged investors to seek safe-haven assets.$PAXG
Technical Momentum: Silver broke through long-standing resistance levels, attracting algorithmic and momentum traders.
The Crash Trigger The sharp drop appears to have been triggered by news of President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh, known for a hawkish stance on inflation, reportedly caused a strengthening of the US dollar and rising real yields, leading to the liquidation of leveraged positions in precious metals.
Outlook: Despite the sharp correction, many analysts suggest that the structural drivers for silver's long-term gains remain intact, though near-term volatility is expected. Some view the dip as a "healthy correction" and a potential buying opportunity for patient investors.
It really goes to show how quickly things can change in the markets! Let me know if you want to dive deeper into any of these points.$XAG
#GOLD #SILVER #XAG #PAX

On February 12, 2026, trillions evaporated across global markets.
Silver $XAG — one of the strongest-performing assets in the cycle — was abruptly pushed down 10% within hours.
Mainstream narratives called it a “healthy correction.”
But corrections do not require coordination.
This did.
1. The Perfect Psychological Triggers
Two catalysts were deployed.
Both technically plausible.
Both structurally convenient.
Jobs Report: 130,000 Added
Headline strength.
Detail weakness.
Most gains concentrated in low-wage services and public healthcare.
Manufacturing — the core signal — continued contracting.
Yet the headline was enough to dampen safe-haven flows.
Perception > composition.
Russia–USD Rumor
An anonymous-source headline suggested Russia may reconsider USD usage in energy trade.
No confirmation.
No policy shift.
No structural evidence.
But it directly targeted the de-dollarization thesis —
and that was enough to shock positioning.
Markets don’t need verified information.
They need a trigger.
2. Algorithms Don’t Debate — They Execute
Within minutes, high-frequency systems began selling silver futures aggressively.
In less than an hour, paper silver volume equaled nearly 30% of annual global mine supply.
Not physical supply.
Contract volume.
Sequential red candles.
Stop-loss cascades.
Liquidity vacuum.
The tape was painted.
Once momentum flipped, retail positioning became fuel.
This was not panic.
It was programming.
3. Paper Price vs. Physical Reality
While futures collapsed, the physical market tightened.
Golden State Mint — one of the largest U.S. refiners — halted silver sales, citing inability to source sufficient physical supply.
If silver $XAG were abundant at $76, refiners would be accumulating — not suspending sales.
Meanwhile, Shanghai physical premiums remained elevated — $7 to $10 above Western paper pricing.
That spread is not noise.
It signals preference for possession over exposure.
When buyers pay above spot for metal in hand,
trust in paper settlement is already eroding.
4. COMEX: The Structural Fragility
Delivery claims now stand dramatically above registered inventory.
The system functions under fractional reserve mechanics.
It works — as long as most participants accept cash settlement.
Price suppression in this environment serves one purpose:
Discourage delivery demand.
If even a modest percentage insists on physical withdrawal,
the strain becomes visible.
Not emotional.
Mathematical.
Strategic Context
This pattern is not new.
When financial stress builds,
a “strong report” or “strategic rumor” appears.
Short positioning gains time.
Liquidity is forced.
The cycle resets.
From 2008 to 2020 and beyond,
price has often been managed before structure is repaired.
This is not conspiracy.
It is risk containment.
The Signal
Do not anchor on headlines.
Watch:
– Physical silver $XAG premiums
– Refinery inventory
– Delivery requests
– Settlement behavior
When paper price and physical demand disconnect,
a structural transition is forming.
The screen shows volatility.
The system shows stress.
Those are not the same thing.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#Silver #Silverrumor
#SilverReset

$3,6 nghìn tỷ USD bốc hơi trong 90 phút.
Truyền thông gọi đó là “healthy correction”.
Nhưng thị trường liên thông và dòng chảy vật chất lại kể một câu chuyện khác:
Đây không phải biến động.
Đây là quản trị rủi ro hệ thống.
1. Khi “Giá” Không Còn Là Giá
New York: $XAG $75–76/oz
Thượng Hải: $XAG $82/oz spot – $85/oz futures
Chênh lệch ~10%.
Trong thị trường kim loại, đó không phải là spread.
Đó là tín hiệu đứt gãy niềm tin.
Nếu arbitrage còn hoạt động, khoảng cách này đã bị san phẳng.
Nhưng nó không bị san phẳng.
Lý do đơn giản:
Giấy không còn được xem tương đương với kim loại.
Khi thị trường không tin vào khả năng giao hàng, premium xuất hiện.
Khi premium duy trì, hệ thống bắt đầu rạn nứt.

2. Khoảng Trống Thanh Khoản Được Tính Toán
Ngày 11/02 không phải ngẫu nhiên.
Từ 15/02 đến 23/02, Thượng Hải nghỉ Tết.
Người mua vật chất lớn nhất tạm rời khỏi thị trường.
Trong khoảng trống đó, áp lực bán thuật toán được kích hoạt.
Không phải để phá giá dài hạn.
Mà để quét stop-loss, ép thanh khoản và giải phóng áp lực giao hàng.
Đây không phải chiến tranh giá.
Đây là quản trị thời điểm.
3. COMEX: Khi Toán Học Bắt Đầu Nói Chuyện
429 triệu oz yêu cầu giao dịch tháng 3.
103,5 triệu oz trong kho đăng ký.
Tỷ lệ hơn 4:1.
Mô hình này chỉ vận hành nếu:
– Phần lớn người giữ hợp đồng chấp nhận cash settlement
– Hoặc giá đủ thấp để họ tự nguyện thoát vị thế
Giá bị ép xuống không phải vì cung dồi dào.
Mà vì giao hàng vật chất là rủi ro hệ thống.
Toán học không bao giờ cảm xúc.
Nó chỉ chờ thời điểm.
4. CPI Và Chiến Lược “Reset Trước Tin”
CPI công bố ngày 13/02.
Nếu lạm phát nóng → kim loại bật tăng.
Việc kéo giá xuống trước tin tạo ra:
– Vị thế tích lũy giá thấp
– Reset cấu trúc kỹ thuật
– Giảm áp lực short trước sóng biến động
Không phải phản ứng.
Là chuẩn bị.
5. Bức Tranh Lớn Hơn: Vàng, Bạc Và Dòng Chảy Sovereign
Trong khi thị trường đàm phán, Nga vẫn tiếp tục mua thêm bạc.
Dù kết quả địa chính trị ra sao, các ngân hàng trung ương Trung Quốc và Ấn Độ vẫn tăng dự trữ vàng $XAU .
Và nếu 300 tỷ USD tài sản bị đóng băng được mở khoá?
Khả năng cao một phần sẽ chuyển hoá thành vàng.
Sovereigns không tranh luận trên truyền hình.
Họ hedge.
Dollar có thể trở lại chu kỳ mạnh.
Nhưng vàng và bạc chưa từng rời khỏi cấu trúc dự trữ.
Kết Luận
Đây không phải sụp đổ.
Đây là rung cây.
Cung bạc toàn cầu vẫn thâm hụt năm thứ 6 liên tiếp.
Nhu cầu kim loại vật chất tại châu Á không hề suy yếu.
Câu hỏi không phải là: “Giá đã giảm bao nhiêu?”
Mà là: “Bao nhiêu hợp đồng thực sự có thể giao hàng?”
Ngày 27/02 sẽ cho thấy điều đó.
Toán học không thể bị trì hoãn mãi.
Chỉ có thể được quản lý — cho đến khi không còn quản lý được nữa.
Theo dõi kênh của tôi để nhận thêm các phân tích chuyên sâu và những góc nhìn có tín hiệu cao!
*Đây là quan điểm cá nhân, không phải khuyến nghị đầu tư.

#Silver #SilverDrain #COMEXUpdate