Continue updating the progress of this experiment. Today’s TGE CAP—ever since ancient times, TGE has always brought out big gains; it’s not a lie. But my score wasn’t enough for 211, so I participated in the wallet booster activities twice, and they deducted 4 points. What a pity. My wife’s account participated.
$CAP sold half for 47u, and the remaining half is now worth 57.7u.
$ARX sold half for 38u, and the remaining half is worth 22u, roughly break-even. $NES sold half for 26u, and the remaining half is worth 23u ---> 14.5u.
暗影萨满
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Recently, Alpha has been a bit scarce. I decided to run an experiment starting last time: every time I cash out, I only sell half and keep the other half in my holding.
I’m not in a rush to fully cash out, nor am I going all-in and holding through thick and thin; it's just a straightforward split. Let’s see if this strategy will help me rake in more profits after three months, or if I’ll regret not making a clean exit sooner.
So far, I’ve executed this strategy twice, and the data is still being recorded. Once the three months are up, I’ll share the complete results (including profit and loss curves, selling timing, and performance of the retained portion) with everyone.
Feel free to join me in observing this little experiment~ Are you a full-sell type, or do you prefer to hold on tight? Or maybe you have your own position management strategies? Let’s discuss in the comments!
$ARX sold half for 38u, remaining half worth 22u $NES sold half for 26u, remaining half worth 23u
Price moved from $0.113 to $0.140, with a 24% amplitude and trading volume of $4.8M. It wasn’t built up by small orders piling in—there’s genuine buying support behind it.
Now longs and shorts are fighting over $0.14—that level is the previous day’s high zone on the daily chart. If it holds above, it suggests the trend may continue; if it gets pushed back down, that becomes a hunt zone for short-term traders.
Keep an eye on $0.14: only a volume-backed breakout has follow-through. A pullback on declining volume means the bears haven’t finished yet.
This ZBT rally’s volume-and-structure is actually pretty solid—are you still watching from the sidelines, or did you get on board? Drop your thoughts in the comments.
Open the market and you'll see the truth—darkness watches the direction.
🧭 Market Overview → BTC $62,442 (-3.33%) · Range 4.21% → ETH $1,777 (-3.10%) · SOL $75.09 (-3.73%) → BNB $568 (-1.83%) · XRP $1.07 (-2.10%) → Fear Index: 22 Extreme Fear
📉 What happened last night?
BTC slid all the way down from above $64K, hitting a low of $61,825. The majors were down across the board by 2–4%. ETH returned to the $1,750–$1,780 range, and SOL lost the $76 level.
With a 4.21% range paired with extreme fear, it wasn’t a small matter—short positions were swept clean in a targeted way. This wasn’t a calm sideways night.
🔥 Unusual activity on both ends
• $XEC — volume surged against the trend +28.33%, $12.8M shows clear accumulation • $ALLO — the heat is still going after two days and three waves; vol=$23.7M, accelerated on day three
Meanwhile, during the same period, second- and third-tier coins that had run too hot earlier were slashed in bulk: PHB -69%、NFP -66%、ATA -54%、LUMIA -38%、SYN -23%
💡 Shadow’s Observation
Two signals are worth thinking about:
1) Extreme moves appear on both the upside and downside at the same time. BTC is only down -3.3%, yet in one night a batch of altcoins shows drawdowns exceeding 50%. This isn’t “a full-market collapse”—it’s capital rotating from micro-cap coins into better liquidity targets. The overhyped junk coins are being cleared out.
2) The $62K level. This is the lower edge of last week’s high-volume trading zone. After last night’s test, it didn’t break down on heavy volume. If Asia holds this, a short-covering move may happen. If it breaks, $60K becomes the next clear trap.
⚠️ Key Levels • Below: if $61,825 breaks → $60K exposed • Above: if it reclaims $64,425 → shorts fail
Don’t chase shorts. Don’t bottom-pick. Wait for the Asia session.
$XEC rose from the low point by 32%, but the high has already been sold off by 21%.
eCash today surged to a high of $0.0000085 and then fell back to $0.0000067, with volume of $12.8M. Turnover rate is 84%. This is a typical pump-and-distribution structure— the squeezed shorts earlier have already been stopped out, and now it’s the chasing retail investors providing the next round of support.
The earlier move was a short squeeze; at this point, stepping in again is basically letting the whales take the bag.
Keep an eye on $0.0000060. If this breaks, the logic behind the pump is dead; after that, what’s left is just tail-end supply.
$ALLO This bullish candle has been running since the early hours and it’s already been up for five hours.
When nobody was watching during the day, it rose quietly. Now everyone is watching, but the trading volume hasn’t converged—this isn’t acceleration; it’s turnover.
The current tug-of-war isn’t about direction; it’s about cost. The low-cost lots that entered in the early hours are looking for a new buyer, while the high-level challengers are betting on continuation. Both sides’ stop-losses are within the recent candlestick range. Whoever lets go first will lose.
Watch $0.42. As long as this level holds and isn’t broken, the structure can still stand. If it falls back, that early-morning move was a抢跑 (rushing in), not a breakout.
$DODO This breakout volume isn’t a revival—it’s because someone’s急着 to get out.
In 24h +40%, but the trading volume is 3x the market cap. After falling 99.7% from the ATH, it suddenly came back to life—what revived was the price, not the project.
Now the fight between bulls and bears isn’t about what the DODO value is worth; it’s whether the person buying in at $0.023 can get out before the sell pressure hits.
Watch the trading volume: if volume is still expanding while the price is slipping, distribution isn’t over; if volume contracts and the price holds sideways, then a bottom may be forming.
🚨 $ALLO saw a surge in volume late at night—this isn’t random fluctuation.
In the past 24h, the price is up +18%. On Binance, trading volume is $7.9M, and cross-exchange (CG) volume is $35M. The turnover rate is under 8%—this isn’t retail chasing the move. It’s someone accumulating in a tight range of $0.37–$0.40.
The AI sector has been quiet all week. But ALLORA—this surge pushed the price toward the day’s high without it falling back, and the buyback/commitment structure is following through. Volume hasn’t cooled off, which suggests the shorts haven’t been fully driven back.
Watch $0.44: if it holds, the bottom float will have completed turnover/rotation, and the next leg has squeeze potential; if it can’t hold, then this is just a low-level test.
What’s the difference between chasing in at this point and making a bet against the orchestrated/“follow the leader” moves? Anyone who entered just now—come discuss your cost basis.
$DODO This bullish candle completely swallowed the shorts’ stop-loss line.
+40%, $9.5M net trading volume—from the $0.016 low, it surged to the $0.027 high, then pulled back. This is not an ordinary rebound in terms of volume.
Position data shows the shorts have already been squeezed once, but the current pullback indicates the longs still aren’t ready for a second push. At this level, whoever moves first will end up passive.
Keep an eye on $0.027. If the trading volume for the second breakout doesn’t decrease, then this won’t be a rebound—it means the shorts have completely surrendered.
━━━ Night Recap · July 13 ━━━ Shadow Shaman · On-chain Hunters
As the day ends, logic remains.
🧭 Today’s Overview → BTC $62,817 24h: -1.75% · ETH $1,778 -1.32% → SOL $76.12 · BNB $568.93 → Fear Index: 28 Fear · Bitcoin amplitude: 1.7%
🔥 Where did the funds come from, and where did they go
The broader market fell across the board, but low-cap sectors saw a burst in volume in pockets.
$DODO +39% — Market makers collectively pulled up; total trading volume for the day was $9.4M. Do you chase at this spot? It depends on whether the volume can continue—if it can’t, it’s distribution. $XEC +30% — eCash’s PoW narrative is back in focus; $8.7M traded, with a clear oversold rebound structure, but overhead resistance from the prior highs is not far. DCR +23% · KITE +22% — Two veteran coins surged in sync, carrying the Decred ecosystem along for the ride; total traded value is still under $10M, and institutional traces are not obvious.
📉 Brutal Cleansing PHB -69% · NFP -66% · ATA -54% — Three coins were cut in half or more within a single day; longs were “precision-targeted” and blasted. This is not just a correction—it’s a structural fund exodus.
📊 Shadow Recap Monday’s overall market was a classic “mask bull” pattern: the broader market drifted down mildly, while low-cap pumps were used to disguise distribution. F&G 28 Fear suggests retail sentiment has already cooled, but the OI structure shows longs haven’t fully exited—this needle hasn’t pierced through completely yet.
Near $62K, BTC closed with a doji; the direction hasn’t been chosen. Tonight, watch the two lines: $63,300 and $61,500—standing above gives longs a chance to breathe; breaking below accelerates for the shorts.
The fingerprint of this targeted “precision blast” is so obvious—if you got swept into it, drop a 1 in the comments and let’s see how many people are still holding positions and didn’t sleep tonight.
$DCR This long green candle looks beautiful, but the shadows see the other side.
After dropping 94% from the ATH $247, a +34% rebound pushed the 5M volume to the $16.47 high; it has now given it all back to $14.91. This isn’t real buy-side support — it’s the bounce the shorts got when they closed their positions.
Decred is an old coin from 2016; the PoW+PoS hybrid consensus is no longer a narrative. Chasing here is a bet against players who bought near the ATH and are holding at costs that are dozens of times lower.
Watch $16.47. If it can’t reclaim it, this pump is just the pullback driven by the inertia after a short squeeze."
$KITE This kite has someone on the ground pulling the line—it's not drifting up naturally.
From $0.112 to $0.139, 24h +23%, with turnover of $6.3M taken out on Binance. A mid-cap target with a market cap of $332M ranked #127 —retail FOMO alone can’t push it to this level.
Now the bulls are betting the main force hasn’t dispatched everything yet, while the bears are betting this high-volume breakout candle is the distribution (selling) structure. Whoever can’t hold and closes out first is the one getting squeezed.
Watch $0.13, this level—if it holds, the bulls are buying; if it breaks, the kite string snaps.
$XEC This +36% move is not a normal rebound—it’s someone accumulating.
From $0.000005 to $0.0000085 and back to $0.000007, the amplitude is 68%. Longs are trapped around $0.000008, shorts were liquidated at $0.000005—people died on both sides, and the whales ate the order book in low liquidity.
Now there’s a 17% pullback; the accumulator is starting to stop. $5M in trades against a $140M market cap doesn’t really count as volume—it looks more like the standard Pump & Dump structure.
Watch $0.0000065. If it can’t hold, this round is the last page. If you chased the price earlier, come to the comments section and report your cost basis.
$DCR This long bullish candle means that old liquidity has started moving.
Decred went from $11 to $15, a +31.7% volume breakout. In the past 24h, it surged almost directly from the opening price to the high and closed at the high—selling pressure is very light, this isn’t a distribution structure.
This project fell 94% from $247. The $11 range has accumulated a lot of short positions. The conflict in this bullish candle is that—the short squeeze hasn’t finished yet, but chasing longs is already not cheap.
Watch whether it can hold above $15. If it closes above, there’s still room for the short squeeze; if it pulls back to $13, that’s a classic short trap plus a long squeeze.
With how big the OG project’s moves have been, which side are you on? Let’s talk in the comments.
Today, DODO—this long-established DEX aggregator—suddenly got targeted: up 43% in 24 hours, with $5.5 million in trading volume on Binance. After climbing up from ATL, this is the first time that large-scale capital has started to probe the market.
Right now, longs and shorts aren’t arguing about whether it will rise—they’re arguing whether this bounce has fundamental support. After all, following a 99.7% drop from ATH ($8.38), any rebound will be suspected of being a dead-cat bounce.
Watch $0.020. If it reclaims that level, it indicates real accumulation by funds; if it breaks below, then this is another round of distribution via a pulse.
See the truth at the open—shadow, watch the direction.
🧭 Market Overview → BTC $64,282 +0.62% · ETH $1,838 +2.73% · SOL $77.91 +1.86% → Fear Index: 28 Fear · ETH leads BTC
🔥 Top 3 Gainers (24h) • $DEXE +28% — ATH breakout, entering an area with no resistance • DODO +39% — unusually high volume, watch for distribution risk • $T +16% — new liquidity flows into Threshold Network; volume matches
📉 Top 2 Losers (24h) • NFP -66% — after a dead-cat bounce, it crashed again • SXT -14% — sold into strength with high volume; range broken
⚡ Signals • DEXE $48 breaks ATH—only if $45 holds the structure does it stay valid • The ETH/BTC spread is widening; altcoin sentiment is starting to recover • The losers board (NFP/SXT) shows chasing micro-caps after a spike carries extremely high risk
💡 Shadow Watch DEXE’s ATH breakout is suspicious. After MC flipped to $2.2B, the turnover rate didn’t keep up—this isn’t confirmation volume for a new trend; it’s existing capital talking nonsense to each other during the final push. If $45 breaks, that’s a stage top. If it doesn’t, we can keep watching. ETH leading is worth monitoring—if it holds $1,800, the short-covering in alts isn’t over.
At this point for DEXE, do you believe it can keep making new highs—or do you think the big fish is distributing? Let’s discuss in the comments. #暗影萨满 #晨间雷达 #加密市场
$DEXE I just touched ATH $48.11 and it started to pull back. At this level, both longs and shorts are just gambling.
$48.11 is the historical high, and $46.68 is where it is now. After a volume surge of $140M pushing to the top, it gave back 3%. The traces of whales trading around $48 are very obvious.
The question now is: is the ATH breakout real, or is it just an inertial spike after a cascade of short liquidations?
Watch $48. Only if it goes back above and holds there—does the ATH breakout count as valid. If it can’t return, then this high-volume candle is the tail end of a long-sided inertia dump.
🐋 You just bought at $48—what position are you in now? Chat in the comments.