$TAC Two days surge 80%—can you still chase it? Or should you short it?
My answer is: don’t rush at this level first.
After the continuous rally, TAC has not shown any obvious signs of capital flowing out. Based on on-chain data, most of the supply is still staying on the exchange/within the venue. It looks more like the main players are continually rotating positions at high levels, rather than distributing and exiting.
Why has it kept hovering in the high range?
Because what the so-called “banker” needs most right now isn’t pumping price, but collecting chips and gauging market sentiment.
Once the long and short positions gradually become imbalanced—whichever side has more concentrated chips—then the next move is very likely to go against that direction.
So if you chase long now, you’re likely to become the buyer at the top after the pump. On the other hand, going heavily short early could also get swept away by the final squeeze.
My advice is simple:
For conservative friends, continue to watch from the sidelines and wait until the direction truly becomes clear, then follow the move.
For more aggressive friends, you can try to place long orders with a small position size—but you must strictly control your position and set a stop-loss in advance. Never let a single trade disrupt your overall plan.
Conservative friends can wait for a pullback, or follow up by getting the entry levels at 老许公开策略交流群.
A sideways consolidation at high levels isn’t scary. What’s scary is treating range-bound movement as if it were a trend.
June is over—did you make a profit or take a loss this month?
For the same thing, if you look from different angles, what you see will be different. For example, the same rose—some people complain about the thorns that prick their hands, while others just enjoy watching the flowers bloom.
Making choices is the same. Returns and risks are always linked together, and ups and downs are simply part of normal life.
The key isn’t whether you’re afraid or not—it’s whether you can see things clearly, stay steady, and be sure of your timing.
Opportunities are there. Whether you dare to take them, and how you take them, all depends on you.老许公开策略交流群
Brothers, good morning!!! Today is the last trading day of June, and it’s also the timing for many institutions to rebalance monthly positions and adjust their quarterly allocations.
At this kind of time, the market often shows a particular characteristic: the direction may not appear immediately, but money starts lining up early.
Recently, BTC has been trading back and forth around 60,000. Many people think the price action is boring, but in my view, this consolidation isn’t that there’s no opportunity—it’s waiting for new capital to reset the valuation.
You’ll notice that in recent drops, there hasn’t been a sustained panic sell-off, and the rebounds have also lacked FOMO chasing. This suggests that the order book liquidity is relatively stable right now. What’s really affecting the market isn’t retail traders—it’s who is the first to push incremental capital into the market.
There’s also another phenomenon worth paying attention to.
Recently, many strong altcoins have started to break away from BTC and move independently. This often means that the market’s risk appetite is gradually recovering.
Even though it’s not enough to prove that a bull market is back, it at least indicates that capital has begun trying to find new opportunities to make money, instead of defending at all costs.
What you really need to watch this week isn’t who says the bull market is here or who says the bear market is coming, but whether the first week of July will see volume pick up again.
If trading volume can expand in tandem, and BTC reclaims and holds above 60,000, then market sentiment will see a clear recovery;
If volume remains low and it continues to chop, then most likely it will keep range-trading—shaking out the impatient people.
My view is simple:
It’s not that the market is weak—the market is just missing a real catalyst that can ignite sentiment.
Until that signal appears, short-term trading is still the most comfortable rhythm.
Key levels to watch:
BTC: 58,500—61,000
ETH: 1,550—1,650
SOL: 72—77
Trading isn’t about who can guess more accurately—it’s about who can stand on the right side of direction the first time when capital truly moves in.
The biggest variable in the current market is no longer the technicals, but rather the final outcome of the Iran-Iraq (Iran-US) negotiations on the 28th and 29th.
If ETH manages to hold above 1500 until next Wednesday, what would you do?
If the talks release positive signals, market panic is likely to cool down quickly and risk appetite could rebound.
BTC and ETH both have the potential to see a round of corrective recovery.
On the other hand, if the negotiations drag on or show more back-and-forth again, risk-off sentiment could intensify further, and the short-term could still face pullback pressure.
Personally, I’m more focused on the price action before next Wednesday.
As long as ETH consistently holds the key support at 1500 and there is no large-volume breakdown, this area is very likely to be a phase bottom zone.
The real opportunity isn’t chasing breakouts, but scaling in when the market is panicking.
Also, today is Saturday—there’s no U.S. stock market open—so the market lacks an external capital trigger. Mainstream coins’ volatility typically drops noticeably today, making it easier to enter a narrow range consolidation.
So there’s no need to act urgently today. Wait patiently for the news to land and for confirmation of the key support, then decide on the next strategy.
If you don’t understand, do less. If you understand, then act.
Get the timing right and slowly make your trades more solid.
$RAVE This wave is being dug back up and discussed again. In plain terms, the market never “remembers a forgotten coin” out of nowhere.
What’s interesting is that, with the rumored linkage to $LABT.US , this story gains another layer of imagination. Same dog-pack/instigators controlling the trades.
But you need to understand: demon/“妖” coins never run on logic; they run on emotional switches.
The people buried in the early phase are still there, while the newcomers start to fantasize. Once this structure forms, the most common move in the market isn’t to keep pumping higher—it’s first to “wipe/clear a round of cognition.”
Don’t romanticize demon coins too much, and don’t underestimate how ruthless they are.
When you think it’s about to take off, it might only be swapping in a new batch of bag-holders.
As for people saying you can still see dozens—ten-somethings, twenty-somethings—just listen to it for what it is. If it really plays out, it won’t follow this kind of storytelling tempo all the way.
At this stage, it’s more like:
Emotions are starting to heat up, but the capital hasn’t truly made its stance yet.
I’d rather observe the rhythm first. After the market’s disagreements have played out, then we can look for whether there’s a real opportunity to get involved.
From the daily and 4-hour structure, ETH is still operating within a clearly weak trend channel. The trend has not changed, and the bearish structure continues to dominate.
After rebounding to around 1610 over the weekend, it quickly pulled back and consolidated near 1560-1580. This move was not a sign of bottoming, but a typical bearish continuation structure — a corrective rebound + liquidity redistribution.
Many people are likely to misjudge this area and think the market has stabilized, but structurally, the rebound could not continue, which itself shows that the trend has not changed.
As long as the correction ends, the market will most likely return to its original downward rhythm and continue testing lower liquidity zones.
From a larger time frame, the broader market is still in a consolidation phase. Volatility is relatively low, but overall rebound strength continues to weaken, and market sentiment remains cautious.
This week’s core view remains: a weak range-bound market, waiting for a real bottoming structure to appear rather than trying to call a bottom too early.
On the news side, the main focus this week is the development of the US-Iran situation.
Although the previous agreement has already been implemented in stages, there is still room for reversals. Market risk-off sentiment has increased significantly with the news flow, and uncertainty remains relatively high.
At the same time, there are two key time points this week:
Wednesday: Central bank governors from multiple countries will speak together, and the market will watch for any new monetary policy signals
Thursday: US non-farm payroll data will be released, which will directly affect the market’s expectations for liquidity
From the funding side, over the past 5 days, crypto ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $1.9 billion, indicating that institutions are still reducing risk exposure. The overall defensive stance has not changed.
Intraday structure:
$BTC watch support near 58000; if broken, further downside room may be released
$ETH watch support near 1500
$SOL relatively stronger in the short term; focus on structural support near 69
The most important point in the current market is not directional judgment, but rhythm confirmation.
Until the trend changes, all rebounds can only be treated as corrections.
What do you guys think the main rhythm for BTC/ETH will be next?
The biggest variable in the current market is no longer the technicals, but rather the final outcome of the Iran-Iraq (Iran-US) negotiations on the 28th and 29th.
If ETH manages to hold above 1500 until next Wednesday, what would you do?
If the talks release positive signals, market panic is likely to cool down quickly and risk appetite could rebound.
BTC and ETH both have the potential to see a round of corrective recovery.
On the other hand, if the negotiations drag on or show more back-and-forth again, risk-off sentiment could intensify further, and the short-term could still face pullback pressure.
Personally, I’m more focused on the price action before next Wednesday.
As long as ETH consistently holds the key support at 1500 and there is no large-volume breakdown, this area is very likely to be a phase bottom zone.
The real opportunity isn’t chasing breakouts, but scaling in when the market is panicking.
Also, today is Saturday—there’s no U.S. stock market open—so the market lacks an external capital trigger. Mainstream coins’ volatility typically drops noticeably today, making it easier to enter a narrow range consolidation.
So there’s no need to act urgently today. Wait patiently for the news to land and for confirmation of the key support, then decide on the next strategy.
If you don’t understand, do less. If you understand, then act.
Get the timing right and slowly make your trades more solid.
$ETH empty positions—let’s do a stage-by-stage review of this move. First, since the short setup failed, we’ll focus on capital preservation. Overall, the pace and rhythm are fine.
After US stocks opened last night, the market sold off rapidly. The BTC price dropped to around 1520, just one step away from our expected 1515 target. This part is indeed a bit regrettable.
This is a typical case of “the space was just a little short, but the structure was completely on point.”
However, on the BTC side, the other short position at 58,500 has already been realized smoothly. It bottomed at 58,468, fully capturing the 2x move. That segment was a clean and decisive profit release.
The real issue now isn’t the trade itself, but the shift in timing.
Today is Saturday—without US market participation, liquidity is clearly lower. The chart is more prone to back-and-forth sweeps and fake breakout structures, so it’s not suitable to continue aggressively chasing shorts.
Meanwhile, from the intraday structure, there are already signs of some stabilization. Bear momentum is weakening, which suggests this stretch of continuous selloff is entering a consolidation/refresh phase.
So the next strategy is simple:
First, wait and observe—don’t chase shorts, don’t bottom-pick early. Let the market give a new direction.
Trading isn’t about pushing every segment to the limit. When it’s time to take profit (or reduce), take it back.
$ETH Before the US stock market even opened, the aunt/secondary trend of decline had already started to cascade downward
Brothers, did you all follow this short position with at least 100 points of potential?
The main overall trend still remains bearish—keeping to the idea of shorting on rebounds and staying up in the high zone is right. If you still don’t know how to find entry points, you can take more looks at @老许bit 老许公开策略交流群
$ETH Before the US stock market even opened, the aunt/secondary trend of decline had already started to cascade downward
Brothers, did you all follow this short position with at least 100 points of potential?
The main overall trend still remains bearish—keeping to the idea of shorting on rebounds and staying up in the high zone is right. If you still don’t know how to find entry points, you can take more looks at @老许bit 老许公开策略交流群
$ETH The issues in the market right now are very clear: it’s not that there’s no rebound, but that every rebound is giving the shorts a better chance to add to their positions.
Especially on BlackRock’s side, they are still continuously distributing shares. This kind of sustained, institutional-level selling pressure is, in essence, not just short-term price volatility, but rather trend-level capital behavior.
So you’ll notice a very typical structure:
The harder the rebound tries, the more decisive the pullback.
That’s also why we set up our short positions in advance—not as a bet on direction, but to follow the flow of funds.
The target for this move is very clear: at least 150 points of space is only the baseline expectation. If the structure doesn’t change, the move won’t be limited to just this much.
The most important thing in trading isn’t calling it right—it’s holding on.
When the timing is right, profit is only a matter of time.
$ETH I saw it posted by my good brother, and the last sentence was just too much—I can’t take it. The E-guards really went into the water; it’s too damn brutal.
Is there any brother who wants to support?
The intraday ideal short position has already arrived, brothers. Current price: 1585—enter with the first lot.
$ETH I saw it posted by my good brother, and the last sentence was just too much—I can’t take it. The E-guards really went into the water; it’s too damn brutal.
Is there any brother who wants to support?
The intraday ideal short position has already arrived, brothers. Current price: 1585—enter with the first lot.
Intra-day $ETH bounced from 1520 to 1555—essentially it’s still a typical weak “repair” rather than a reversal.
Many people, seeing a bounce, mistakenly think it signals a bottoming out. But in reality, this kind of price action is the easiest to trick with the illusion of “just stopped falling.”
From the volume and energy (momentum), this rebound has already clearly weakened. Momentum has basically been exhausted, which indicates that the bulls do not have sustained follow-through.
Once volume momentum is depleted at this kind of level, the most common market move is— a second pullback.
So the key now isn’t how strong the bounce is, but whether it can still continue to “lure” prices higher.
Once the bounce ends, that’s the window for the bears to take over the rhythm again.
That’s also why I’m paying renewed attention to short opportunities at this point.
As for whether today is Black Friday, it doesn’t matter.
What matters is: the structure itself doesn’t support sustained upside.
For the more aggressive brothers: at the current price 1555, place your target to watch for a break of the 1500 level and then the 1470 breakdown.
For the more conservative brothers: you can come to 老许公开策略交流群 to get the entry levels!!!
Intra-day $ETH bounced from 1520 to 1555—essentially it’s still a typical weak “repair” rather than a reversal.
Many people, seeing a bounce, mistakenly think it signals a bottoming out. But in reality, this kind of price action is the easiest to trick with the illusion of “just stopped falling.”
From the volume and energy (momentum), this rebound has already clearly weakened. Momentum has basically been exhausted, which indicates that the bulls do not have sustained follow-through.
Once volume momentum is depleted at this kind of level, the most common market move is— a second pullback.
So the key now isn’t how strong the bounce is, but whether it can still continue to “lure” prices higher.
Once the bounce ends, that’s the window for the bears to take over the rhythm again.
That’s also why I’m paying renewed attention to short opportunities at this point.
As for whether today is Black Friday, it doesn’t matter.
What matters is: the structure itself doesn’t support sustained upside.
For the more aggressive brothers: at the current price 1555, place your target to watch for a break of the 1500 level and then the 1470 breakdown.
For the more conservative brothers: you can come to 老许公开策略交流群 to get the entry levels!!!
Last night, the broader market fell back again to around 58,000. The overall trend is basically the same as what I judged yesterday. The current market is still extremely weak— it couldn’t even regain and hold above 60,000 again. This shows that the rebound strength is clearly insufficient, and the bears are still in control.
From the current走势, the broader market is still in a downtrend channel, and there are no obvious bottoming signals yet. Therefore, today is likely still dominated by weak consolidation. Regarding contract positioning, personally I still lean toward shorting the rebound—wait until after the rebound to set up, rather than blindly chasing shorts at low levels.
As for when it will truly signal a bottom, I’ve mentioned before that I will first focus on the area around 55,000, to see whether an effective bottom can form there. If later it can stabilize with increased volume, then we can consider whether there is an opportunity for a rebound in the current phase. Otherwise, we still need to guard against further downside.
Let’s look at the current market data:
1. The panic sentiment index has already reached 12, which is in the extreme fear zone, indicating that market sentiment is still very poor. The liquidation map over the past 7 days also shows that the bears are clearly in the lead, and overall short sentiment remains relatively strong.
2. Regarding institutional fund flows, yesterday’s crypto ETF net outflows were about $450 million. This suggests institutions are continuing to de-risk and reduce exposure, and the outlook for the near term is not optimistic.
3. Options: BTC’s biggest pain point is $71,000, with a notional amount of about $9.245 billion; ETH’s biggest pain point is $2,000, with a notional amount of about $1.584 billion.
4. For the funding rate: BTC’s 8-hour average funding rate across the whole network is +0.002%. Although it’s slightly bullish, it’s almost zero, which means there isn’t much bullish conviction. ETH’s network-wide average funding rate is -0.0033%. Most major exchanges are negative as well, indicating that bearish power is relatively stronger, and the market overall is more tilted toward shorting ETH.
Key support levels to watch today: BTC around 57,000, ETH around 1,470, and SOL around 62.5.
Overall, the market has not yet shown a clear bottoming signal. Institutional funds continue to flow out, and sentiment is in extreme fear. For short-term operations, it’s still recommended to stay cautious. Until the trend has truly reversed, try to trade with the trend—don’t rush into bottom-picking longs just because prices have fallen a lot.
Last night, the broader market fell back again to around 58,000. The overall trend is basically the same as what I judged yesterday. The current market is still extremely weak— it couldn’t even regain and hold above 60,000 again. This shows that the rebound strength is clearly insufficient, and the bears are still in control.
From the current走势, the broader market is still in a downtrend channel, and there are no obvious bottoming signals yet. Therefore, today is likely still dominated by weak consolidation. Regarding contract positioning, personally I still lean toward shorting the rebound—wait until after the rebound to set up, rather than blindly chasing shorts at low levels.
As for when it will truly signal a bottom, I’ve mentioned before that I will first focus on the area around 55,000, to see whether an effective bottom can form there. If later it can stabilize with increased volume, then we can consider whether there is an opportunity for a rebound in the current phase. Otherwise, we still need to guard against further downside.
Let’s look at the current market data:
1. The panic sentiment index has already reached 12, which is in the extreme fear zone, indicating that market sentiment is still very poor. The liquidation map over the past 7 days also shows that the bears are clearly in the lead, and overall short sentiment remains relatively strong.
2. Regarding institutional fund flows, yesterday’s crypto ETF net outflows were about $450 million. This suggests institutions are continuing to de-risk and reduce exposure, and the outlook for the near term is not optimistic.
3. Options: BTC’s biggest pain point is $71,000, with a notional amount of about $9.245 billion; ETH’s biggest pain point is $2,000, with a notional amount of about $1.584 billion.
4. For the funding rate: BTC’s 8-hour average funding rate across the whole network is +0.002%. Although it’s slightly bullish, it’s almost zero, which means there isn’t much bullish conviction. ETH’s network-wide average funding rate is -0.0033%. Most major exchanges are negative as well, indicating that bearish power is relatively stronger, and the market overall is more tilted toward shorting ETH.
Key support levels to watch today: BTC around 57,000, ETH around 1,470, and SOL around 62.5.
Overall, the market has not yet shown a clear bottoming signal. Institutional funds continue to flow out, and sentiment is in extreme fear. For short-term operations, it’s still recommended to stay cautious. Until the trend has truly reversed, try to trade with the trend—don’t rush into bottom-picking longs just because prices have fallen a lot.
Last night, $ETH took a plunge that smashed through market sentiment. A lot of folks panicked and started cutting losses as the price dropped, and some even went short at the lows. 老许公开策略交流群
But my morning take was crystal clear: after a series of heavy drops, the shorts were already raking in serious profits. At this point, the real threat isn’t further declines, but rather the rapid bounce from shorts taking profits.
So while the market was still soaked in bearish sentiment, I had already guided my crew to stealthily enter long positions.
The logic is straightforward: a genuinely weak market won’t plummet rapidly, and a strong short won’t mindlessly crash when everyone is bearish.
Then ETH started its corrective rally as expected, and we cashed in on the entire rebound, netting a sweet $3000 profit.
The most interesting part of the market is that when most people think it can only go down, that’s often when the bounce begins.
Opportunities always come from anticipation, not chasing highs and cutting losses.
Get the rhythm right, and profits will naturally follow.
Last night, $ETH took a plunge that smashed through market sentiment. A lot of folks panicked and started cutting losses as the price dropped, and some even went short at the lows. 老许公开策略交流群
But my morning take was crystal clear: after a series of heavy drops, the shorts were already raking in serious profits. At this point, the real threat isn’t further declines, but rather the rapid bounce from shorts taking profits.
So while the market was still soaked in bearish sentiment, I had already guided my crew to stealthily enter long positions.
The logic is straightforward: a genuinely weak market won’t plummet rapidly, and a strong short won’t mindlessly crash when everyone is bearish.
Then ETH started its corrective rally as expected, and we cashed in on the entire rebound, netting a sweet $3000 profit.
The most interesting part of the market is that when most people think it can only go down, that’s often when the bounce begins.
Opportunities always come from anticipation, not chasing highs and cutting losses.
Get the rhythm right, and profits will naturally follow.
Morning!!! Bros. Last night, $BTC saw another quick drop, plunging below a key support zone at one point, further squeezing the longs. Old Xu also took his followers along for a couple of short positions!!! For those who are not up to speed on the current market 👉 老许公开策略交流群
From what we see now, the core reason for this drop isn't internal to the market, but rather a continuous decline in global risk appetite.
Lately, whether it's stocks, commodities, or crypto, you can definitely feel that funds are gravitating towards defensive plays.
What the market fears most is not bad news, but uncertainty. When funds start to pull back their risk exposure, high-volatility assets are usually the first to take a hit.
Looking at the charts, BTC has tried to bounce back multiple times, but each rebound lacks sustainability, indicating that outside funds are still in a wait-and-see mood, and short-term buying pressure isn't strong.
The market has entered a phase of emotional release, with panic selling ongoing, but often it's during these times that we get closer to a possible bottoming opportunity.
For spot trading, my view remains unchanged: don't think you can catch the bottom in one shot, and definitely don't go heavy betting on a reversal.
The truly sound strategy is still to scale in gradually, keeping your position size and cost within an acceptable range.
Key levels to watch: BTC: support around 58000
ETH: support around 1500
SOL: support around 63
Trading isn't about guessing the bottom, but waiting for the market to show it.
If you don't understand, don't make rash moves. Understand it before you act.