币星驰
106 Posts
币星驰
头部资管首席顾问、头部VC合伙人
摒弃市场噪音，解构底层流动性
专注于全球宏观周期与Crypto资产定价模型
寻找非对称盈亏比，只做高确定性的右侧交易
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$SPCX In the short term, the two most crucial timestamps are as follows:
First key timestamp: July 7th. This day marks the first trading day after the Independence Day weekend and also the 15th trading day post-IPO, when the Nasdaq 100 index will officially include SpaceX. Market estimates suggest that the passive buying pressure could be between $8 billion to $18 billion (closer to $15 billion). Since existing shareholders can’t offload their stocks at this point, the circulating supply in the market will hit its lowest.
Second key timestamp: Two business days after the Q2 earnings call (expected around July 22nd or 29th). Rumor has it that following the second quarter earnings call, early insider shareholders will face the first wave of major unlocks.
First key timestamp: July 7th. This day marks the first trading day after the Independence Day weekend and also the 15th trading day post-IPO, when the Nasdaq 100 index will officially include SpaceX. Market estimates suggest that the passive buying pressure could be between $8 billion to $18 billion (closer to $15 billion). Since existing shareholders can’t offload their stocks at this point, the circulating supply in the market will hit its lowest.
Second key timestamp: Two business days after the Q2 earnings call (expected around July 22nd or 29th). Rumor has it that following the second quarter earnings call, early insider shareholders will face the first wave of major unlocks.
Last night, SpaceX officially went public, with an IPO price of $135 per share and a closing price of $160.95.
By this calculation, Elon Musk's personal net worth is nearing $1.10 trillion. What does that even mean? Since the day Zhu Yuanzhang became emperor, if you hit a jackpot of $4.57 million every single day up until now, you still wouldn't have amassed Musk's current fortune.
The employees are also cashing in big time; around 4,400 SpaceX employees have become millionaires due to stock ownership, with over 400 holding shares worth more than $100 million. This includes core R&D engineers, launch pad techs, chefs, and even janitors—all of them got equity. For instance, a welder earning $28 an hour became a millionaire overnight.
#SpaceX首日开盘超IPO价格29% $SPCX
By this calculation, Elon Musk's personal net worth is nearing $1.10 trillion. What does that even mean? Since the day Zhu Yuanzhang became emperor, if you hit a jackpot of $4.57 million every single day up until now, you still wouldn't have amassed Musk's current fortune.
The employees are also cashing in big time; around 4,400 SpaceX employees have become millionaires due to stock ownership, with over 400 holding shares worth more than $100 million. This includes core R&D engineers, launch pad techs, chefs, and even janitors—all of them got equity. For instance, a welder earning $28 an hour became a millionaire overnight.
#SpaceX首日开盘超IPO价格29% $SPCX
Duan Yongping made a big news $币安人生
Duan Yongping is also starting to draw K-lines. He wants to buy Pop Mart, and his method is to sell puts. If you don’t understand, it doesn't matter, you just need to know that selling a put is equivalent to saying: 'If the stock price drops to 150 Hong Kong dollars, I will buy your stock at this price.'
As a result, Duan Yongping sold a total of 225,000 puts at the system limit. He thought it was a U.S. stock rule, where one put corresponds to 100 shares. He calculated in his mind: with an exercise price of around 150 Hong Kong dollars, that totals about 3.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, which is small change.
But Hong Kong stocks don't play like this. One put for Pop Mart corresponds to 200 shares. He only realized after confirming: what was originally a 3.4 billion transaction directly doubled to 6.8 billion.
If the stock price truly drops to 150, he would have to come up with nearly 10 billion Hong Kong dollars, buying 45 million shares and directly becoming Pop Mart's third-largest shareholder, next to Wang Ning and the management.
Duan later also posted a message saying: 'I indeed didn’t notice this, fortunately, I sold puts, otherwise it would have been troublesome.'
What!!! 30 billion feels like just a few dollars.
Because Duan Yongping's 6.8 billion buy order is just sitting there, the shorts were instantly dumbfounded. They wanted to push the stock price down, but underneath was a 10 billion-level 'Duan Yongping ATM', he must buy, how can you push it down? Whatever you push down, he will take. The shorts thought, what is this nonsense, better retreat quickly.
The short sellers retreated in a panic, and Pop Mart actually rose. It is said that some shorts complained to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission about Duan Yongping's illegal operations...
It seems Duan Yongping also wants to learn from Trump the supreme realm of stock trading, drawing K-lines himself... #泡泡玛特 #BTC
Duan Yongping is also starting to draw K-lines. He wants to buy Pop Mart, and his method is to sell puts. If you don’t understand, it doesn't matter, you just need to know that selling a put is equivalent to saying: 'If the stock price drops to 150 Hong Kong dollars, I will buy your stock at this price.'
As a result, Duan Yongping sold a total of 225,000 puts at the system limit. He thought it was a U.S. stock rule, where one put corresponds to 100 shares. He calculated in his mind: with an exercise price of around 150 Hong Kong dollars, that totals about 3.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, which is small change.
But Hong Kong stocks don't play like this. One put for Pop Mart corresponds to 200 shares. He only realized after confirming: what was originally a 3.4 billion transaction directly doubled to 6.8 billion.
If the stock price truly drops to 150, he would have to come up with nearly 10 billion Hong Kong dollars, buying 45 million shares and directly becoming Pop Mart's third-largest shareholder, next to Wang Ning and the management.
Duan later also posted a message saying: 'I indeed didn’t notice this, fortunately, I sold puts, otherwise it would have been troublesome.'
What!!! 30 billion feels like just a few dollars.
Because Duan Yongping's 6.8 billion buy order is just sitting there, the shorts were instantly dumbfounded. They wanted to push the stock price down, but underneath was a 10 billion-level 'Duan Yongping ATM', he must buy, how can you push it down? Whatever you push down, he will take. The shorts thought, what is this nonsense, better retreat quickly.
The short sellers retreated in a panic, and Pop Mart actually rose. It is said that some shorts complained to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission about Duan Yongping's illegal operations...
It seems Duan Yongping also wants to learn from Trump the supreme realm of stock trading, drawing K-lines himself... #泡泡玛特 #BTC
The bottom of the river has increased several times, and in the past two days, it has been exploding contracts.
The annualized cost of short positions is more than a hundred times, what does this mean? The big players will definitely continue to push the price up and explode short positions.
I bet that the river will reach one hundred, what do you think? #river
The annualized cost of short positions is more than a hundred times, what does this mean? The big players will definitely continue to push the price up and explode short positions.
I bet that the river will reach one hundred, what do you think? #river
$alpaca is truly the most impressive stock I have ever seen. After a crash, it has quickly increased tenfold again. The ability to pump and dump repeatedly is truly top-notch. This kind of short-term pumping and dumping can lead to losses if not handled with care.
This also indicates that, in the face of a manipulated coin, all fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and financial analysis are futile. One can only assume the identity of the manipulator and predict their actions, which is very difficult for retail investors.
This also indicates that, in the face of a manipulated coin, all fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and financial analysis are futile. One can only assume the identity of the manipulator and predict their actions, which is very difficult for retail investors.
Is $alpaca's pricing serious? 4% per hour?
$TRUMP has clearly entered a short-term correction phase on the 4-hour chart. The current price has fallen to 13.75 USDT, consistently breaking below the MA/EMA 7 and 30, with a weak technical outlook.
The middle band of the Bollinger Bands has been breached, and the price is approaching the lower band, indicating that downward momentum is still being released.
The MACD death cross continues to expand, with green bars extending, and bears remain in control; the RSI has fallen to 25.8, nearing the oversold zone, suggesting a potential technical rebound in the short term.
The trading volume has slightly increased, indicating some selling pressure support during the decline.
Overall, the short-term outlook is bearish, and caution is advised when chasing high prices. If it breaks below 13.5, be wary of an accelerated downturn; on the contrary, one can pay attention to the stabilization signals in the 13.3~13.5 range.
The middle band of the Bollinger Bands has been breached, and the price is approaching the lower band, indicating that downward momentum is still being released.
The MACD death cross continues to expand, with green bars extending, and bears remain in control; the RSI has fallen to 25.8, nearing the oversold zone, suggesting a potential technical rebound in the short term.
The trading volume has slightly increased, indicating some selling pressure support during the decline.
Overall, the short-term outlook is bearish, and caution is advised when chasing high prices. If it breaks below 13.5, be wary of an accelerated downturn; on the contrary, one can pay attention to the stabilization signals in the 13.3~13.5 range.
The on-chain address shows that the official address $TRUMP has already started shipping. A few days ago, I mentioned that Trump himself has a strong business aura, and his tokens are likely to experience a pulse-style pump. When he calls out a price, that is the best exit opportunity, not the time to buy in.
Once again, confirming #TRUMP .
Once again, confirming #TRUMP .
The $LAYER layer shows a clear bullish trend on the 4-hour chart, with the current price strongly breaking through the $3 mark, well above the short and medium-term moving averages. The Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating strong bullish momentum. However, the TD sequence shows consecutive '9' signals, combined with the price breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a potential overbought risk and pullback pressure in the short term.
From a trading perspective, holders can continue to hold in the direction of the trend and use EMA(7) as a take-profit reference; those without positions should avoid blindly chasing highs and can wait for the price to pull back to the 2.80~2.90 area before positioning.
The overall strategy is primarily to trade long in the direction of the trend, paying attention to short-term pullback rhythms and managing risk. #layer
From a trading perspective, holders can continue to hold in the direction of the trend and use EMA(7) as a take-profit reference; those without positions should avoid blindly chasing highs and can wait for the price to pull back to the 2.80~2.90 area before positioning.
The overall strategy is primarily to trade long in the direction of the trend, paying attention to short-term pullback rhythms and managing risk. #layer
A brief review of the significant events from last night:
1. Strategy announced last night that it increased its holdings by 1.42 billion USD, acquiring 15,355 BTC last week. Strategy currently holds 553,555 BTC, purchased at approximately 37.9 billion USD, with an average price of about 68,459 USD per Bitcoin. Large holders continue to accumulate BTC.
2. The Arizona State Legislature has passed the BTC state reserve plan, now only awaiting the governor's signature (however, this governor is from the Democratic camp and relatively anti-crypto, so the probability of passage is not very high).
3. Circle has issued another 250 million USDC on Solana. Liquidity continues to grow.
#Strategy增持比特币 #亚利桑那州两项比特币储备法案
1. Strategy announced last night that it increased its holdings by 1.42 billion USD, acquiring 15,355 BTC last week. Strategy currently holds 553,555 BTC, purchased at approximately 37.9 billion USD, with an average price of about 68,459 USD per Bitcoin. Large holders continue to accumulate BTC.
2. The Arizona State Legislature has passed the BTC state reserve plan, now only awaiting the governor's signature (however, this governor is from the Democratic camp and relatively anti-crypto, so the probability of passage is not very high).
3. Circle has issued another 250 million USDC on Solana. Liquidity continues to grow.
#Strategy增持比特币 #亚利桑那州两项比特币储备法案
Bithumb will launch the $ai16z KRW trading pair, and South Korea's sensitivity to altcoins is indeed top-notch.
I wonder if they have seen the next wave of narratives for AI AGENT? Are they going to lead the AI AGENT market? @币安广场
I wonder if they have seen the next wave of narratives for AI AGENT? Are they going to lead the AI AGENT market? @币安广场
$BTC breaks 90k, the risk-off narrative heats up, but the market swings between gold and US stocks. Traditional correlations have broken down—BTC sometimes behaves like digital gold, and other times like a high-risk asset.
The market focus has shifted: it's not about who to follow, but whether it can continue to go Up Only.
The options market is buzzing, with a large number of high strike Calls being bought; ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive days, totaling $3.1 billion, with TradFi funds continuing to increase their stakes.
A healthier phenomenon is that leverage has not overheated, perpetual funding rates are stable, and spot buying is dominant.
But the real test is right ahead: this week’s JOLTS job data, preliminary GDP, employment cost index, NFP non-farm payrolls, along with earnings reports from tech giants MSFT, META, AAPL, and AMZN. A massive influx of fundamental data combined with risk events—will BTC's Up Only myth continue or come to an end?
The market focus has shifted: it's not about who to follow, but whether it can continue to go Up Only.
The options market is buzzing, with a large number of high strike Calls being bought; ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive days, totaling $3.1 billion, with TradFi funds continuing to increase their stakes.
A healthier phenomenon is that leverage has not overheated, perpetual funding rates are stable, and spot buying is dominant.
But the real test is right ahead: this week’s JOLTS job data, preliminary GDP, employment cost index, NFP non-farm payrolls, along with earnings reports from tech giants MSFT, META, AAPL, and AMZN. A massive influx of fundamental data combined with risk events—will BTC's Up Only myth continue or come to an end?
$SUI 4-hour continuation of the upward trend, the current price remains stable above the MA7 and MA30 moving averages, with a bullish arrangement of short-term moving averages and a good structure.
The Bollinger Bands have slightly opened after convergence, and the price is rebounding from the middle band (around 3.58), indicating bullish intent.
Although the MACD is above the zero axis, momentum is weakening, and the RSI remains in a high consolidation around 70, suggesting a slight slowdown in short-term momentum.
Overall, the trend remains bullish. If it can break through the previous high of 3.81 with increased volume, it is expected to accelerate upward; if it falls back, pay attention to the support in the 3.60-3.65 range, and if it breaks below, caution is needed for adjustments.
The Bollinger Bands have slightly opened after convergence, and the price is rebounding from the middle band (around 3.58), indicating bullish intent.
Although the MACD is above the zero axis, momentum is weakening, and the RSI remains in a high consolidation around 70, suggesting a slight slowdown in short-term momentum.
Overall, the trend remains bullish. If it can break through the previous high of 3.81 with increased volume, it is expected to accelerate upward; if it falls back, pay attention to the support in the 3.60-3.65 range, and if it breaks below, caution is needed for adjustments.
Sharing a few top-notch fakes, follow, like, and comment to get them from me
The rise and fall cycle of altcoins usually consists of four stages: turning point, testing, unilateral, and acceleration.
A real market trend does not appear out of thin air but unfolds step by step along this path.
Currently, most altcoins remain in the turning point stage, such as $AXL, $JUP, $INJ, $CHZ.
A small number have entered the testing stage, such as $BCH, $RAY, $XRP.
Very few have entered a unilateral upward trend, such as $SUI, $FART, $TRUMP.
As for the acceleration stage, it is not visible in the market yet.
This means that the overall market is still far from a trend reversal, participants' sentiments have not formed a consensus, and the price structure has not completed a real transition of support and resistance.
In such a stage, the best strategy is to quietly find high-odds positions and wait for the market to mature on its own, rather than staring at the candlestick charts and repeatedly hypnotizing oneself with "I'm going to miss out." #山寨币热点
A real market trend does not appear out of thin air but unfolds step by step along this path.
Currently, most altcoins remain in the turning point stage, such as $AXL, $JUP, $INJ, $CHZ.
A small number have entered the testing stage, such as $BCH, $RAY, $XRP.
Very few have entered a unilateral upward trend, such as $SUI, $FART, $TRUMP.
As for the acceleration stage, it is not visible in the market yet.
This means that the overall market is still far from a trend reversal, participants' sentiments have not formed a consensus, and the price structure has not completed a real transition of support and resistance.
In such a stage, the best strategy is to quietly find high-odds positions and wait for the market to mature on its own, rather than staring at the candlestick charts and repeatedly hypnotizing oneself with "I'm going to miss out." #山寨币热点
Most of the explosive mountain stocks lack depth, and there is a divergence between volume and price, which does not suggest a reversal to a bull market.
In a rebound market, be cautious and take profits when they are available 【This does not represent a bearish view】
In a rebound market, be cautious and take profits when they are available 【This does not represent a bearish view】
I have been thinking about a question:
In the context of new currency inflation, the collapse of valuation systems, and the continuous siphoning off of projects like 'Trump' on DEX, how should one invest in altcoins?
■ Should we chase coins with strong capital flow on the right side, capturing short-term explosions but risking high prices;
■ Or should we look for undervalued coins on the left side, needing to endure fluctuations and deeply study the fundamentals;
■ Or should we simply focus on BTC and leading altcoins, prioritizing stability but potentially missing opportunities?
In the context of new currency inflation, the collapse of valuation systems, and the continuous siphoning off of projects like 'Trump' on DEX, how should one invest in altcoins?
■ Should we chase coins with strong capital flow on the right side, capturing short-term explosions but risking high prices;
■ Or should we look for undervalued coins on the left side, needing to endure fluctuations and deeply study the fundamentals;
■ Or should we simply focus on BTC and leading altcoins, prioritizing stability but potentially missing opportunities?
#April 28th Morning Report
Brief analysis of the market
BTC lacks upward momentum, altcoins generally retreat: Recently, the market has entered a short-term consolidation phase due to significant previous gains. BTC's upward momentum is insufficient, and altcoins are experiencing a widespread retreat. From Wednesday to Friday this week, the U.S. will release several key macroeconomic data points, including PCE, GDP, non-farm employment, and PMI, increasing market uncertainty. As a result, some funds have chosen to take profits, leading to a rise in short-term risk-averse sentiment.
ALPACA plummets, selling off meets expectations: ALPACA has seen a sharp short-term decline, in line with previously analyzed trading tactics. The project team quickly liquidated by selling off, and those who do not understand can check my previous updates.
$SUI , $SOL , $TAO and other strong cryptocurrencies show weakened momentum: The leading cryptocurrencies in this round, such as SUI, SOL, and TAO, are gradually losing their upward momentum, but no significant decline has occurred yet. If the macro environment and BTC do not face major negative news, altcoins may still have the potential to continue rising, and market signals should be closely monitored.
CEX/DEX trading volume is sluggish, market nature leans towards a rebound: Currently, CEX and DEX trading volumes are at low levels, with market sentiment high but participation insufficient, reflecting limited capital activity. This indicates that the current market situation is more likely a phase rebound rather than a trend reversal.
Brief analysis of the market
BTC lacks upward momentum, altcoins generally retreat: Recently, the market has entered a short-term consolidation phase due to significant previous gains. BTC's upward momentum is insufficient, and altcoins are experiencing a widespread retreat. From Wednesday to Friday this week, the U.S. will release several key macroeconomic data points, including PCE, GDP, non-farm employment, and PMI, increasing market uncertainty. As a result, some funds have chosen to take profits, leading to a rise in short-term risk-averse sentiment.
ALPACA plummets, selling off meets expectations: ALPACA has seen a sharp short-term decline, in line with previously analyzed trading tactics. The project team quickly liquidated by selling off, and those who do not understand can check my previous updates.
$SUI , $SOL , $TAO and other strong cryptocurrencies show weakened momentum: The leading cryptocurrencies in this round, such as SUI, SOL, and TAO, are gradually losing their upward momentum, but no significant decline has occurred yet. If the macro environment and BTC do not face major negative news, altcoins may still have the potential to continue rising, and market signals should be closely monitored.
CEX/DEX trading volume is sluggish, market nature leans towards a rebound: Currently, CEX and DEX trading volumes are at low levels, with market sentiment high but participation insufficient, reflecting limited capital activity. This indicates that the current market situation is more likely a phase rebound rather than a trend reversal.
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