🚨 WARNING: A Major Storm Is Setting Up

A U.S. government shutdown is now highly likely at 12:00 AM ET tomorrow, when funding expires.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing roughly an 86% chance of a shutdown.

If this happens, it’s not just political theater — it’s a data blackout.

Here’s what that actually means for markets:

• Jobs Report (NFP):
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is affected by a shutdown. If this drags on, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report gets delayed. No jobs data, no clear read on the labor market.

• Inflation Data (CPI / PPI):
CPI data collection slows or stops. That means we lose visibility on whether inflation is cooling or reaccelerating — right when markets are most sensitive to it.

• GDP & PCE:
The Bureau of Economic Analysis typically halts operations. No GDP updates, no PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

• CFTC Reports:
The Commitment of Traders (CoT) report stops. That’s one of the few ways we see how large institutions are positioned. That transparency disappears.

• SEC Activity:
The SEC mostly shuts down, aside from emergency enforcement actions.

• IPOs & M&A:
New IPOs and merger approvals get delayed. Deals stall. Timelines stretch. Uncertainty increases.

Historically, government shutdowns shave ~0.1% to 0.2% off GDP growth for every week they last.

The longer it goes on, the more markets price in an “uncertainty discount.”
Stocks don’t like trading blind.

This isn’t about panic.
It’s about recognizing when information flow shuts off — and volatility tends to fill the gap.

I’ll keep tracking developments and updating as things evolve.

I’ve studied macro for over 10 years, and major market moves rarely come from one headline.
They come from pressure building quietly, then releasing all at once.

This is one of those moments to stay alert.