$ENSO

đ¨ CHINAâS $48T FLASHING WARNING â AND MARKETS ARE STILL WHISPERING đŁđ
Chinaâs latest macro data isnât background noise. Itâs a signal flare.
Its M2 money supply has surged past roughly $48 trillion (USD equivalent). Thatâs more than double the U.S. supply â and the trajectory isnât flattening. Itâs accelerating.
This isnât a headline cycle. Itâs a structural shift.
Hereâs the part most people miss:
When China expands liquidity at this scale, the capital doesnât stay locked inside paper markets. It migrates.
And that migration is already visible.
China is quietly:
⢠Trimming U.S. Treasury exposure
⢠Pulling back from Western equity risk
⢠Redirecting capital into gold, silver, copper, and hard commodities
Less paper. More physical.
Now zoom in on the pressure point no one wants to talk about: silver.
Roughly 4.4 billion ounces are tied up in paper shorts, while global mine supply sits near 800 million ounces a year. Thatâs over five times annual supply sold short.
You canât unwind exposure to metal that isnât there.
If physical demand keeps tightening while paper leverage remains inflated, this stops being a normal price adjustment. It becomes a forced repricing.
Long-term, the setup is asymmetric.
On one side:
⢠Currency dilution
⢠Central banks accumulating hard assets
⢠Surging industrial demand from solar, EVs, and electrification
On the other:
⢠Excess leverage
⢠Structural supply gaps
⢠Institutions crowded into fragile positions
This isnât about calling a top or a bottom.
Itâs about pressure quietly building underneath the system.
And when real assets finally reset, history suggests it rarely happens gently.
Stay sharp. Cycles tend to break silently â right up until they donât.
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