All three are named China.

Taiwan desk: “Military risk. Contained.”
Macro desk: “Debt spiral. Domestic.”
Tech desk: “Decoupling. Bilateral.”

Not one analyst in any building has modeled what happens when all three detonate simultaneously.

I have.

The numbers nobody’s connecting:

Births collapsed 17% in a single year to 7.92 million. Lowest since 1738.

Property investment: -17.2%.

Trade surplus: $1.19 trillion.

That surplus isn’t strength. It’s a dying economy cannibalizing external demand because internal demand flatlined.

January 15, 2026: Trump signs 25% tariffs on NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X under Section 232.

This severs China’s path to compute parity at the precise moment domestic implosion accelerates.

The timing is surgical.

Here’s the mechanism chain institutional silos cannot see:

Tariffs cripple AI investment. Growth falls toward 4.5%. Xi needs nationalist diversion. Taiwan coercion escalates. Decoupling accelerates globally. Debt rollover becomes impossible. Capital flight triggers CNY breach below 7.5.

Each step feeds the next.

Eight major blockade exercises around Taiwan since 2022. Each larger than the last.

Justice Mission 2025: 130 aircraft sorties. 27 rockets fired into waters near Taiwan’s 24-mile line. Territorial waters breached for first time since 2022.

That’s not posturing.

That’s rehearsal.

The threshold that matters: CNY depreciation below 7.5 historically correlates with capital flight exceeding half a trillion dollars.

One customs inspection in the Taiwan Strait.

That’s all it takes.

Here’s what makes this worse:

Taiwan’s fertility rate just hit 0.72. Lowest on Earth.

Both sides of the Strait are watching their populations collapse in real time.

This compresses every timeline. Xi knows it. Lai knows it.

Markets don’t.

Current institutional positioning: Underweight China, overweight Taiwan semis, 60% EM allocation ex-China.

Their assumption: Taiwan risk is purely military with zero economic spillover.

Their vulnerability: They have never once modeled coercion triggering debt spiral triggering decoupling cascade.

The recognition catalyst: First customs blockade in the Strait.

When that happens, institutional silos collapse in 48 hours.

The repricing: 15-25% EM drawdown in 30 days.

My positioning:

Short CNY to 7.6. Long US fabs. Exit 50% China EM exposure before the catalyst, not after.

What kills this thesis:

GDP above 5% in H1 2026.
No Taiwan incidents for six consecutive months.
US-China tech deal with tariff waiver.

I’m watching all three.

But here’s what I know:

The crisis isn’t Taiwan OR debt OR tech decoupling.

The crisis is Taiwan AND debt AND tech feeding each other in a loop that no institutional model captures because no institution employs analysts who talk to each other.

You’re either positioned before.

Or you’re liquidity for those who were.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

$BTC