And tomorrow could turn into one of the ugliest days of 2026…
Most people don’t realize this, but:
Tariffs stay = 📉
Tariffs go = 📉
THERE IS NO BULLISH PATH.
If you hold stocks, crypto, or any kind of assets, you need to watch this closely.
Before we even get into tariffs, look at where the market is standing right now.
– The “Buffett Indicator” (Total Market Cap vs GDP) just touched around 224% a historical extreme.
That’s far above the Dot-Com peak (~150%) and even higher than the 2021 top.
– The Shiller P/E ratio is sitting near 40.
In 150 years, this level has only appeared once right before the 2000 crash.
This market is priced for perfection.
It can’t survive a 1% disappointment let alone a global trade conflict.
Now here’s where things get even darker…
1. THE “GREENLAND” ESCALATION
10% tariffs on European allies (France, Germany, UK, and others) kicking in Feb 1.
This directly hits multinational profits that are already trading at 22x earnings.
2. THE CONSTITUTIONAL STORM
Rumors are spreading that the Supreme Court may declare Trump’s IEEPA tariffs ILLEGAL.
If you’ve been in the market long enough, you already know:
THERE IS NO POSITIVE OUTCOME.
Let me break it down.
SCENARIO A: Tariffs Stay (Profit Shock)
– Corporate margins get crushed.
Consumers can’t absorb 10–20% higher prices, so companies take the hit themselves.
– History Check: In 2002, Bush’s steel tariffs led to 200,000 job losses in steel using industries more than the total steel workforce itself. Markets reacted badly.
– In 2018, just tariff threats caused instant sell offs (CAC 40 dropped 1.7% in one day, Apple fell 2.6%).
The numbers don’t lie:
2026 earnings forecasts are likely 15% too optimistic.
SCENARIO B: Tariffs Get Voided (Financial Chaos)
– This creates a “Refund Disaster.”
If overturned, the U.S. government could owe BILLIONS back to importers.
– 1930 Echo: Smoot-Hawley fears alone caused a 16% market drop before the law was even signed.
– If the court blocks the tariffs, the administration likely responds with Section 232 or emergency orders to avoid refunds.
Markets fear legal uncertainty and solvency risk more than they fear higher taxes.
So pick your poison:
A margin-destroying trade war
OR
A legal and financial crisis.
Either way this is a KNOWN UNKNOWN. ⚠️📉🔥
