It may be even more difficult to maintain a leading position in semiconductors

　　JPMorgan Chase believes that the strong lead shown by AI semiconductor companies over hyperscale cloud service providers may not be sustained indefinitely, and that the valuation gap between the two is unlikely to remain at its current level in the long term.

　　In a report to clients, analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou outlined two possible paths to narrow this performance divergence.

　　Two scenarios or a reshaping of the AI investment landscape

　　Under a more optimistic scenario, hyperscalers, AI model developers, and enterprise customers improve their ability to monetize AI investments, driving stronger revenue and profit growth.

　　JPMorgan says this will enable these companies to “catch up and capture a larger share of the massive AI value-added pie.”

　　A less-than-ideal outcome is that semiconductor companies continue to outperform, but at the expense of their largest customer (including hyperscale cloud providers and AI model developers).

　　In this scenario, stronger returns from the chip sector may “begin to curb willingness to increase capital expenditures,” and “eventually become a headwind factor for semiconductor companies’ product demand.”

　　JPMorgan still leans toward a constructive outlook.

　　Although the outlet acknowledges these risks, it says its core view remains consistent with a more optimistic scenario.

　　However, JPMorgan also points out that many equity analysts currently expect that hyperscale cloud providers’ capital expenditure growth will slow significantly starting next year.

　　The outlet says this consensus “on the surface will lean toward a negative scenario.”

　　After chip stocks have outperformed over the long term, they remain fragile.

　　JPMorgan emphasizes that since September last year, the performance of semiconductor stocks (especially AI processor and memory chip manufacturers) has been better than that of hyperscale cloud providers.

　　The outlet believes that if investors’ expectations start to cool, this persistent leading position could expose the sector to growing risks.

　　Money supply and cryptocurrencies are also in focus

　　Aside from the AI sector, JPMorgan expects the incremental growth in the U.S. money supply to rise from $1.6 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion in 2026.

　　The outlet also commented on digital assets, warning that MicroStrategy “has introduced unavoidable two-way risks into the crypto market, increasing uncertainty and volatility.”