While the crowd, in euphoria, jumps onto the departing train, buying $VELVET on tops, on-chain metrics and technical analysis are screaming one thing: we’re witnessing a classic climax of buying before a grand long liquidation.
If you’re looking for a technically grounded short entry point with a clear mathematical expectation—this breakdown is for you. We’ll examine why the $VELVET is ready to replicate the fate of its previous pump.
1. Repeat fractal: Does history teach nobody anything?
Look at the left side of the chart (the period from 7–10 June). The price flew vertically to the $1.92 marks in exactly the same way, leaving behind a huge empty imbalance. What happened next? An irreversible sell-off back into consolidation—over 70%. Now the market maker is drawing an absolutely identical structure. Waiting for a different outcome is the height of naivety.
2. Extreme technical overheating
RSI(6) on the 4-hour timeframe broke 91! This is a zone of total buyer exhaustion. It’s physically impossible to hold an asset at these levels without deep cooling.
A colossal deviation from average prices. The current price (~$1.83) has detached from its EMA(25) at $1.15 by almost 60%. The market is a rubber band, and right now it’s stretched to the limit. A return to the moving averages is inevitable.
3. On-chain anomalies and the market maker trap
Daily trading volume is inflated to $783 million USDT with Open Interest (O.I.) at $38.4 million. In the rally, an enormous number of leveraged positions piled up. As soon as the big players (and trackers are already recording activity of wallets related to DWF Labs and the team that were bringing volume to CEX) start closing, a cascade squeeze will begin. The first stops of long holders will trigger a chain of liquidations that will pull the price down to the bottom.
🎯 Trading plan: The logic of a SHORT position by #Velvet
Entry: Place limit orders in the range $1.83 – $1.89 (on local attempts to break above)👇
Stop-loss: From the historical peak — $1.93 (with a buffer for the squeeze).
Target 1: $1.55 – $1.60 (first local support and a test of the EMA 7).
Target 2: $1.15 (dynamic support at the EMA 25, where the bulk of the position will be closed).
Target 3 (conservative): $0.70 (full imbalance fill).
The risk-reward in this trade is phenomenal (over 1:4). While everyone is shouting “moon,” smart money is getting ready to take profit on the drop.
What do you think? Will we go for a new high at $2.0, or is this an obvious scam pump for unloading onto the crowd? Share your thoughts in the comments—we’ll discuss it!