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比特币短期持有者（STH）的成本基础目前在 $101,000。这代表了市场参与者在情绪判断中常用的一个“近期记忆价格”参考点。
$BTC 
BTCUSDT
Permanentní
88,140.9
+3.26%
$ETH 
ETHUSDT
Permanentní
2,979.69
+5.52%

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🥸如果你曾经买在山顶然后被套…… 那就看看这 15 秒的内容，它可能会救你下一轮周期。看看 BTC 的图表（绿色区段 = 上涨阶段）： • 如果暂时把 10 月的高点视为 125,000 美元，那么当前这一轮上涨周期已经持续了相当长时间（约 145 个月） → 这意味着 BTC 已经“长跑”了一段时间，而不是刚涨没几天。 • 历史显示：在一轮强劲上涨之后，BTC 往往会有 1 年左右的“休息期”（下跌 / 横盘，走势折磨人）。如果大环境不变，2026 年可能就是休息的一年。 • 如果出现较深回调，很多人会关注的区域是 65,000–75,000 美元（类似“地基区”，价格回到这里通常会有支撑）。最现实的结论： 1️⃣ 不要在价格疯狂上涨时 FOMO，因为“跑得快”之后往往要“喘口气”。 2️⃣ 如果想买，不要一次性梭哈 → 分批买入，给自己留退路。$BTC $SOL $ZEC

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🔍 2025 is one of the worst years for altcoins Top losers of 2025 on CoinGecko (based on the top 1,000 tokens) show that altcoins dominate the list far more than memecoins: 🖤 Only 3 memecoins are in the top 20 losers of 2025 🖤 L2 and RWA tokens make up the majority of coins on the list Many projects on this list have strong technology, real products, and solid teams, yet that still isn’t enough. Anyone who’s still holding projects stuck in the top losers list at this point is really suffering 🥲 $OM $USUAL $MOVE

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🤔 我们真的还需要更多新的 Layer-1 吗？这个问题被反复提起。而 2025 年给出的答案相当冷酷： $MON、$KTA、$XPL、$PLUME、$BERA、$IP …… 大多数都较高点下跌了 80% 以上。这并不是因为市场一夜之间崩盘，而是因为在上线、主网发布、所有承诺说完之后，现实开始显现。流动性枯竭，成交量消失，用户没有留下来。 2025 年 Layer-1 的核心问题非常清晰： Launch ≠ 拥有生态。现在，做一条链已经不难了。真正难的是：有真实用户，并且持续使用有每天真实发生的交易有用户真正需要的应用有不会“来得快、去得也快”的流动性很多 Layer-1 在技术层面做得没问题：更快、更便宜、更安全。但采用（adoption）不会自动发生。没有用户 → 没有成交量没有成交量 → 没有叙事最终，价格已经说明了一切。 📌 事实是：市场已经不缺又快又便宜的链。当前真正的瓶颈不在技术，而在于分发能力、流动性以及真实需求。在一大堆新 Layer-1 争夺注意力的同时，真正拥有强生态、真实 Builder 和真实用户的项目，才会成为赢家。市场的思维正在从：「新链？直接冲！」转变为：「这条链有人用吗？有人在上面 build 吗？」 $MON $XPL $BERA

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🚨 Scrolling X, seeing many “experts” calling for BTC to drop to $40k or even $20k ⚠️ For now, I personally don’t believe BTC can fall to those levels, but it’s true that every year the market usually experiences one major liquidation event—one that even the biggest whales can’t escape. In the previous cycle, that was the LUNA–UST chain reaction, followed by the collapse of FTX, Alameda, 3AC, Celsius, Voyager, etc., which dragged BTC down 76% from $67k to $16k. This year, the most likely black swan could be Digital Assets Treasury (DAT) companies being forced to liquidate, if crypto prices drop sharply and trigger margin calls or balance-sheet stress. However, I think this cycle will be less brutal, because: Most DAT companies mainly hold large-cap assets like BTC, ETH, SOL, rather than highly speculative tokens. These companies generally have real assets and cash flow as a buffer, unlike 3AC or Alameda, which collapsed entirely. 📌 Therefore, if a deep drop does happen, my view is that BTC could fall around 50% from the top, meaning roughly $50k–$60k, rather than $20k–$40k. From a long-term perspective, I still believe in BTC, ETH, SOL, and the broader crypto market, because the fundamentals are stronger than ever, especially projects that generate real revenue and profits. The most important thing is still capital management—making sure you have cash available so that if the market crashes again, you can DCA instead of being forced out. This is my personal opinion, not financial advice.$BTC $SOL $PTB

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🔎$SOL is not only at its major support level, the same one that has held price for the past 2 years. But there's also a bullish divergence forming on the 3D timeframe, exactly like what we saw before the major bottom in March.📈 $SOLV $LIGHT

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