Everyone's saying it's bullish that the US Congress banned CBDCs, but Bitcoin just dropped from 63100 to 60850—500 points in two minutes. Where's the bullish narrative in that? The market isn't buying it at all—prices are still probing lower, with a 24-hour low already touching 60815. The 61000 level is now just a thin layer of resistance.
The current market divergence is quite interesting. On one side, you have the bulls holding onto the script of "once Trump signs, we're taking off," stubbornly clinging around the 62k mark, with a long-to-short ratio still above 2.0, and retail longs piling up; on the other hand, the bears are eyeing the dwindling trading volume and low funding rates, waiting for liquidity to dry up and pull prices down. Wintermute says $BTC might drop to 59000, reasoning it’s the summer lull—I'm inclined to agree, considering today's volume is only around 900 million U, which clearly isn't enough to support the price.
What we should really focus on isn’t the news, but the structure. The hourly chart has completed a full bearish CHoCH since dropping from 65600, with each rebound peak coming lower, and all moving averages pressing down on the candlesticks. The 30-minute and hourly charts are in a bearish resonance; that morning bounce from 62600 to 63100 didn’t even touch the moving averages before getting smacked back down. This isn't just a shakeout; it's a continuation of the downtrend.
Can 61000 hold? I don't think so. That lower wick at 60850 showed a weak rebound, and if we see a breakout below 60800 tonight with volume, 60000 will be the next stop. The bulls are in a tight spot—holding their positions waiting for bullish news, but when the news drops, prices keep falling. The bears aren't in a rush because the structure hasn’t changed; any rebound is just free points for them.
$BTC
#CBDC禁令 #比特币急跌 #summerlull
The current market divergence is quite interesting. On one side, you have the bulls holding onto the script of "once Trump signs, we're taking off," stubbornly clinging around the 62k mark, with a long-to-short ratio still above 2.0, and retail longs piling up; on the other hand, the bears are eyeing the dwindling trading volume and low funding rates, waiting for liquidity to dry up and pull prices down. Wintermute says $BTC might drop to 59000, reasoning it’s the summer lull—I'm inclined to agree, considering today's volume is only around 900 million U, which clearly isn't enough to support the price.
What we should really focus on isn’t the news, but the structure. The hourly chart has completed a full bearish CHoCH since dropping from 65600, with each rebound peak coming lower, and all moving averages pressing down on the candlesticks. The 30-minute and hourly charts are in a bearish resonance; that morning bounce from 62600 to 63100 didn’t even touch the moving averages before getting smacked back down. This isn't just a shakeout; it's a continuation of the downtrend.
Can 61000 hold? I don't think so. That lower wick at 60850 showed a weak rebound, and if we see a breakout below 60800 tonight with volume, 60000 will be the next stop. The bulls are in a tight spot—holding their positions waiting for bullish news, but when the news drops, prices keep falling. The bears aren't in a rush because the structure hasn’t changed; any rebound is just free points for them.
$BTC
#CBDC禁令 #比特币急跌 #summerlull