OG selling is cooling off, and that is a bullish sign. But calling a bottom before September is not that simple.
On-chain data shows that holders who have held for over five years have cut their selling to a 90-day average of just 962 BTC, the lowest since November 2024. That is a massive shift. These OGs were responsible for huge selling waves in 2024 and 2025.
A key reason is price. The most expensive coins this cohort bought five years ago were acquired around $63,200, close to current levels. At this price, they are choosing to hold rather than sell. Strong hands have not even flinched. The pressure is mostly coming from newer, weaker holders who are capitulating.
Some analysts point to a potential bottom in early September based on a halving-cycle timing model. The 826-day marker lands on July 6, putting a potential bottom window in early September.
But Galaxy Research analyzed 13 historical bottom indicators and found only four have triggered so far. They project a base-case floor between $40,000 and $46,000 by late 2026. A real bottom typically sees aggregate losses and sustained loss-taking, and that has not materialized yet.
On-chain data shows that holders who have held for over five years have cut their selling to a 90-day average of just 962 BTC, the lowest since November 2024. That is a massive shift. These OGs were responsible for huge selling waves in 2024 and 2025.
A key reason is price. The most expensive coins this cohort bought five years ago were acquired around $63,200, close to current levels. At this price, they are choosing to hold rather than sell. Strong hands have not even flinched. The pressure is mostly coming from newer, weaker holders who are capitulating.
Some analysts point to a potential bottom in early September based on a halving-cycle timing model. The 826-day marker lands on July 6, putting a potential bottom window in early September.
But Galaxy Research analyzed 13 historical bottom indicators and found only four have triggered so far. They project a base-case floor between $40,000 and $46,000 by late 2026. A real bottom typically sees aggregate losses and sustained loss-taking, and that has not materialized yet.