ARC$ARC /USDT: Technical Analysis & High-Probability Short Setup
Market Context & Rationale
The broader structure remains bullish on the daily and 4-hour charts,indicating any short trade is a counter-trend move within a larger uptrend. The opportunity arises on the 1-hour chart, where a clear loss of momentum is evident. Price is currently holding above its 1H EMA50, but critically, the 1H EMA50 is trading below the 1H EMA200. This configuration signals that the near-term momentum is weak relative to the medium-term trend, creating a potential for a local pullback.
The catalyst for entry is the fading bullish momentum on lower timeframes. The 15-minute RSI has recently cooled from overbought territory (>70), suggesting the intraday buying pressure has exhausted. This aligns with price approaching a key 1-hour support level.
Actionable Trade Setup: SHORT
· Entry Zone: 0.04047 – 0.04090
· Ideal entry is on a confirmed break and retest of the 1H support at ~0.04069.
· Stop Loss (SL): 0.04155
· Placed above the recent swing high and the 1H resistance to invalidate the pullback thesis.
· Take Profit Targets (TP):
· TP1: 0.03984 (Initial target, prior minor support)
· TP2: 0.03898 (Key level, aligning with 4H EMA support)
· TP3: 0.03813 (Primary target, confluence with Daily EMA50)
Risk-Reward Summary
This setup offers a precise,risk-defined opportunity to capitalize on a local bullish exhaustion within a larger uptrend. The trade thesis is invalidated if price reclaims the 1H structure and momentum returns, defined by the stop loss level.
