📅 December 4 | New York

The movement that could redefine how economics and politics are reported has just happened. Kalshi, the regulated “prediction markets” platform where you legally bet on real events, closed an exclusive agreement with CNBC. This alliance makes Kalshi an official provider of probabilistic data and brings an information model based on probabilities and real money to television.

📖Over the past few months, Kalshi had gained ground after obtaining regulatory approval and capturing growing volumes, especially linked to macro and electoral events. But it had never achieved a window to the traditional public.

Now, thanks to CNBC, millions of households will have access to percentages and probabilities about inflation, Fed decisions, wars, elections and legislative changes.

The interesting thing is that CNBC will not only use the data: it will integrate it into television segments, in digital analyzes and in economic narratives. This occurs just when traditional media does not know how to compete with social networks, sports betting and quantitative content.

Kalshi brings a cold, hard fact, with money behind it, and CNBC turns it into a massive conversation. In practice, Kalshi becomes the first probabilistic source legitimized by an institutional means.

The magnitude of the agreement sets a precedent. With CNBC taking this data, the incentive for other platforms, media or even banks to act similarly is immense.

What once seemed like a parallel industry is now presented as an official economic indicator. And, although there are no public figures yet on future volume, Kalshi could skyrocket its user numbers at rates never seen before, driven by television visibility and the 2026 electoral narrative.

Topic Opinion:

For a long time, economic narratives were based on opinions and surveys. Today, probabilistic data is integrated where real money is at stake, something much more honest and reliable. I see this step as the definitive institutionalization of predictive markets.

💬 Do you think predictive markets will replace traditional surveys?

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