The Islamabad talks just broke down after roughly 21 hours, and the market reacted instantly. The main sticking points were the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program, with no deal reached despite marathon negotiations.
Now the real pressure point is shipping. The U.S. said it would begin blocking maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports from 10 a.m. ET on Monday, while still allowing passage for vessels heading to non-Iranian ports through Hormuz. That keeps global trade moving, but it also signals that this crisis is entering a more dangerous phase.
Energy traders wasted no time. Oil jumped back above $100 as fears of a prolonged disruption returned, and analysts are warning that prices can stay elevated or climb much higher if flows through Hormuz remain constrained.
This is no longer just a regional headline. It is now an inflation story, a shipping story, and a macro risk story all at once.
Do you think this turns into a short-term spike, or the start of a bigger energy supercycle?