Russian Crude Production Stable Through 2025, OPEC Data Shows

Russia’s crude oil production has stayed around 9.1–9.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, according to the latest OPEC secondary sources and industry data, underscoring continued resilience despite sanctions and shifting global demand patterns. OPEC reported that Russia’s crude output averaged around 9.129 million bpd in 2025, a slight decline from 2024 levels and below its quota under the OPEC+ agreement.

Monthly tracking data also show that production was about 9.803 million bpd in August 2025 and continued near similar levels through September, reflecting ongoing output stability even as global energy markets grapple with oversupply and demand uncertainty.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has previously indicated that Russia expects to meet or gradually increase production toward its OPEC+ quota by late 2025 or early 2026, although actual compliance has been mixed amid sanctions and logistical challenges.

External pressures — including Western sanctions, reduced imports from key buyers such as India and slower export flows — have contributed to downward revenue pressure and periodic fluctuations in output, but production has remained broadly within a tight range.

Market Implication: Russia remains a major crude producer globally, with output near 9.2 M bpd, but shifting trade dynamics and sanctions could influence near-term production and export trends as 2026 progresses.