Bitcoin’s recent bounce looks strong on the surface, but structurally the market is still at a critical decision point. Similar to the 2022 setup, price briefly dipped below the 200-week EMA, quickly reclaimed it, and triggered short-term relief across the market. Back then, that relief proved temporary once $BTC failed to hold and accept above the level over time. The 200-week EMA is not just another indicator it represents a long-term regime boundary that separates bear-market rallies from genuine macro recoveries.
What matters now is not today’s green candles, but what happens next. If Bitcoin can hold the 200W EMA as support, build structure above it and absorb selling pressure without sharp rejections, the current bounce can transition into a sustainable recovery phase. However, repeated failures or weak closes back below this level would signal that the move is corrective rather than structural, keeping the risk of a deeper downside leg alive. At this stage, patience is key this is a market to observe and react to, not rush to predict.
#USIranStandoff #MarketRally #RiskAssetsMarketShock #BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge #WarshFedPolicyOutlook 
