On Thursday (February 5), the last major nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia expired after US President Donald Trump rejected Russia's offer to voluntarily extend the restrictions for another year. This move dismantled a cornerstone of the post-Cold War security system and prompted arms control advocates to warn of an accelerating global arms race.
This event fueled persistent global risk concerns, attracting safe-haven buying of gold. Spot gold rebounded from its lows in Asian trading on Friday, currently trading around $4,820 per ounce, up about 1.3% on the day. Earlier in the session, it fell as much as 2.5% to $4,670, before bargain hunting helped recover the losses. The expiration of the New START Treaty has a profound and multi-layered impact on gold. It is not merely an event that brings short-term gains, but a strategic turning point that could potentially change the global security paradigm and reshape the long-term value of gold.
In the short term, gold, as the most direct safe-haven asset, received strong buying support. In the medium to long term, the new era of global strategic uncertainty ushered in by this event endows gold with stronger "strategic insurance" attributes and a more enduring bullish narrative.
Against the backdrop of the dismantling of global security "barriers," gold's safe-haven appeal will be particularly dazzling. The market needs to recognize that the pricing logic for gold is shifting partly from "economic and financial cycles" to "geopolitical and security cycles."
