As of today, a new opportunity for market growth has formed, and I would like to consider it. First of all, I want to emphasize the divergence in fundamental factors. The crypto market collapsed against the backdrop of a trigger that I pointed out first – oil WTI fell below 71, and at the opening of the new week, crypto immediately reacted, anticipating a drawdown in the currency market and a rise in the dollar following oil. However, the subsequent mass of negative statistics from the USA completely negated the influence of oil, and the euro rose above 1.050 and even 75, which currently supports purchases. As a result, the crypto market remains in an oversold position relative to other markets.
Considering the picture and aggressive measures by Binance to keep the market at the bottom, the situation resembles another game of push-down. Americans tried to knock down the market by pushing oil. Against this backdrop, Ethereum opened the month below 2250, which gives a technical signal for sales down to 1900. At the same time, Binance was not against helping to delay the retracement on the quarterly candle as close to its closing as possible, which will allow opening a new quarter above 2250 or 2500, giving a signal to maintain purchases. Such a picture and the negative opening of the month cut the targets we can achieve from above this quarter; the target of 3500 for Ethereum is no longer on the table. However, if the altcoin index rises from 8.5% to 10-11, according to my expectations, the ground will be sufficient for breakouts among the coins.
So, after sales in the first half of the month, against the backdrop of the previous bearish candle and the opening of this month below 2250, this week, it is worth preparing for a new attempt to retrace for the quarter, which will begin with the change of the month as it approaches its midpoint. This week, there is a high probability of breakouts similar to rare pros or burger across many oversold coins.
First of all, it is worth noting uft vidt alpaca, which Binance artificially pushed below the technically relevant market levels, assigning a monitoring tag. Given the assignment of the tag, it is advisable to consider the upper boundary of the flat at levels 0.25 for uft, 0.025 for vidt, and 0.15 for alpaca. It is safer to reduce positions and re-enter lower during the next market drawdown when testing these levels. There is a high probability that under the pressure of the new tag, these instruments will flat from the noted lows to the resistance levels until autumn and will only take higher targets by the end of the year. I also believe there is a high probability that the monitoring tag was added temporarily to create profitable entry points for large investors and to shake out retail investors, as the tokens were trading with quite good dynamics, and with a specific goal, futures were added to them by the end of the year. The picture resembles manipulations with pros. These tokens are now in a severely oversold position and are very interesting for trading, as in the event of pullbacks, they could give up to 50-100%+ growth.
Among the coins with the monitoring tag, I also consider troy and cream for trading, but they now have a growth potential of up to 50%. It should be noted that depending on buyer activity, troy may test the left technical signal at 0.0032-35 and repeat the pros pattern. There is no such target for cream. Combo may also show a growth of 30-50%, but it is in a less oversold position, and there is a probability of testing supports at 0.100-125 and subsequent growth with the main resistance at 0.25. Other coins with the monitoring tag are not currently being considered given the current market picture. I want to remind you that there has been no delisting this month so far, and in the first half of the week, it is advisable to keep a short stop below the current price for coins with the monitoring tag in case of delisting.
After changing the frequency of operations with the monitoring tag from quarterly to monthly, coins without a tag are at risk of a double collapse. First, with the assignment of the tag, and then in the event of delisting. We have definitively lost the ability to identify more reliable instruments among the oversold ones that have accumulated significant potential for a rebound. After the assignment of the tag, to more than fifty coins over the summer at this pace, I think Binance will start removing the tag from the coins that have been overtraded at the bottom, where we again lose the ability to identify which coins might spike in this case. However, based on indirect signs of past volatility and the addition of futures, I suspect that the tag may be removed from such coins as alpaca, uft, vidt, pros, ctxc, combo, troy, aergo.
Among the coins without the monitoring tag, vib still stands out significantly, with a high probability of an attempt to break out to 0.1+. Until next month and the new assignment of the monitoring tag, the token is reliable, which could lead to a sharp influx of buyers at the quarter's turnaround. Relative to the market, it is also in a state of extreme oversoldness, and given the current price of Ethereum, the range for vib is more appropriate at 0.075-90. Purchases are still quite sluggish under the pressure of indicators and the drawdown after the breakout of the previous month, but in the near future, there is a high probability of leveling to the specified range at least. In a negative scenario, without confident growth under market pressure this month and the assignment of monitoring in the new one, the token has nowhere to fall, which also makes investments from the current position quite reliable.
In addition to vib, among the coins without the monitoring tag, those reliable until the new month, pda stands out significantly with a growth potential of up to 80%+. For scalping, in case of general market growth, I also consider voxel, farm, og, and wing. For voxel and farm, there is a probability of a drawdown of 25-30% in the case of a negative market and Ethereum dropping to 1900, but with market growth, impulses of 30-40% are probable from their current levels. For wing and og, data about emissions started to diverge across different sources, which may lead to a drawdown to 1.5 and 2.5 respectively, in a negative market and a drop in Ethereum. In case of market growth from the current levels, waves of growth of 30-40% are also probable.
$VIB
$ALPACA
$VIDT