FED Watch
The Federal Reserve's policy committee held its key interest rate steady on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. This marks a pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in late 2025 and indicates a "wait-and-see" approach to future policy adjustments amid mixed economic signals.
Key Insights
Policy Decision: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 to keep rates unchanged, with two dissenting members preferring another rate cut. The decision aligns with market expectations for a pause to assess the impact of previous cuts and incoming economic data.
Economic Outlook: The Fed noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, but job gains have remained low, and inflation is still above the 2% target. Policymakers are looking for convincing evidence of cooling inflation or a weakening labor market before making further adjustments.
Market Expectations: Financial markets, as tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool, anticipate a low probability of a change in rates at the next meeting, with expectations for potential rate cuts shifting to later in 2026, possibly in June.
Political Context: The meeting occurred amidst significant political pressure from the Trump administration for lower rates, including a Department of Justice investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's handling of office renovations, which Powell has called a pretext to undermine the central bank's independence.
Upcoming Meetings
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings each year. The upcoming meeting dates for 2026 are as follows:
- March 17–18
- April 28–29
- June 16–17
- July 28–29
You can find more detailed information and the full schedule on the Federal Reserve Board website.
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