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Bitcoin Power Law Mean Reversion Math
Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process, continuous-time “damped spring” model

Bitcoin’s long-run “fair value” follows a power law in time (log(FV_t) = a + b·log(t)). Price wanders around this trend, but the deviation tends to decay back toward zero.

Key quantities
d_t = log(P_t) − log(FV_t)
z_t = d_t / σ (σ = residual std dev)

Model (the backbone)
Treat deviations as an AR(1) / OU-like process:
d_{t+1} = φ d_t + ε_{t+1}, with |φ| < 1
E[d_{t+k} | d_t] = d_t · φ^k

Mean reversion speed
ρ(k) ≈ e^(−λk), with λ = −ln(φ)
Half-life h = ln(2)/λ ≈ 133 days ⇒ φ ≈ 2^(−1/133) ≈ 0.995 per day

Practical meaning (Feb 2026)
The “pricing error” shrinks roughly exponentially:
50% closes in ~4–5 months (1 half-life)
75% closes in ~9 months (2 half-lives)
90% closes in ~14–15 months (~3.3 half-lives)

Physical analogy
Damped spring: restoring pull ∝ −dt, noise shocks = ε.

Bottom line
Bitcoin behaves like a noisy, slow mean-reverting process around its power-law trend. Bigger |z| today implies stronger expected pull toward trend value over the next 6–18 months.
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$BTC
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$SUI 🦅🦅🦅#DYOR 📢
♻️♟️SUI /USDT obchodní pár zažívá mírný medvědí trend, s poklesem o 2,04 % za posledních 24 hodin. Aktuální cena je 4,3340 $.

Technická analýza

Technické indikátory ukazují na medvědí signál, s 7denním EMA (4,3076 $) pod 25denním EMA (4,2452 $).

Klíčové úrovně

Odpor: 4,4900 $
Podpora: 3,8590 $

Obchodní strategie✔️

Krátká pozice➡️ Vstup při 4,3340 $, cíl na 4,2181 $ (2,7% zisk), a stop-loss na 4,4360 $ (2,4% ztráta).

Dlouhá pozice➡️ Vstup při 4,0752 $, cíl na 4,3340 $ (6,3% zisk), a stop-loss na 3,9147 $ (4,0% ztráta).

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➡️Poměr rizika a odměny (krátká): 1:1,13 (2,4% riziko, 2,7% potenciální zisk)
➡️Poměr rizika a odměny (dlouhá): 1:1,58 (4,0% riziko, 6,3% potenciální zisk)
➡️Velikost pozice: 2,5% z celkové hodnoty portfolia
#BURNGMT #2024withBinance #Debate2024

Guys i was think this calculations definitely help you for open short🔰🔴😇

To calculate the position size for a short trade based on your risk percentage, you can follow this step-by-step method:

Determine your total trading account balance. For example, $10,000.

Decide the percentage of your account you are willing to risk on this trade. For example, 1% risk

risk = capital × risk percentage
= $10000 × 1%
= $100

Identify your short trade entry price. For example, $50 per share.

Determine your stop loss price above the entry price. For example, $52.

Calculate the risk per share:

risk per share = Stop Loss Price - Entry Price = $52 - $50 = $2 risk per share.

Calculate position size:

Position Size = Risk per Trade / Risk per Share
= $100 / $2 = 50 shares.

This means you can short 50 shares while risking only 1% of your account if the price hits your stop loss.

This calculation helps you manage risk precisely by sizing your position according to how much you are willing to lose per trade 

So if you think about this something change please comment bellow

Thank you ladies & gentle❤️🫡
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