btcfebruary

Bitcoin (BTC) is wrapping up January 2026 on a shaky note, currently trading around $82,000–$83,000 USD (with flashes as low as $78,500–$81,000 in recent sessions and modest rebounds failing to push past $85,000). This caps off a brutal month, down roughly 30–35% from the late-2025 peak near $126,000, fueled by heavy ETF outflows, macro headwinds (U.S. government funding risks, potential shutdown drama, tariff uncertainties), and risk-off flows favoring traditional assets like gold (despite its own sharp corrections recently).
February 2026 Outlook (Month-Specific Prediction)
February historically ranks as one of Bitcoin's stronger months (average ~+14% returns in past cycles), often providing relief after January weakness. With sentiment in extreme fear territory (Fear & Greed Index in the low 20s/teens), oversold RSI levels (~20–30 on daily/weekly charts), and BTC stuck in a descending channel, a relief bounce looks plausible if key supports hold.
Key Scenarios for February:
- Base/Relief Case (~$85k–$105k): If $80k–$83k defends firmly (aligning with major holder cost bases and prior lows), expect a bounce early in the month toward $90k–$95k, potentially testing $98k–$101k mid-February. This could be driven by reduced outflows, stabilizing macro (e.g., Fed signals or avoided shutdown), ETF inflows resuming, and seasonal strength. Many models point to $98k as the first major upside target on a decisive $90k reclaim, with possible controlled dips back to $95k.
- Bear Case (~$70k–$80k): Failure at $83k could trigger deeper capitulation toward $74k–$76k (cycle lows and support clusters) or even $70k if macro worsens (e.g., prolonged shutdown fears or more liquidations). Some cautious forecasts warn of $75k–$80k holds if downside momentum builds.
- Bull Case ($100k+ push): A strong macro pivot (clearer regulation, rate cut hints) combined with capitulation exhaustion could spark a rapid recovery to $100k–$105k+ by late February, matching optimistic historical patterns and models eyeing $101k–$103k averages.
Overall consensus leans toward mild recovery and consolidation rather than fireworks:
- Early February averages around $85k–$96k, building toward $93k–$100k+ if momentum picks up.
- Higher-end targets like $105k–$114k show in bullish seasonal adjustments, but broad conviction stays tempered amid volatility.
- Extreme outliers (e.g., parabolic $276k claims) exist but aren't widely supported—most view February as a potential "shakeout" setup for spring gains, not an instant moonshot.
Volatility remains elevated—monitor $80k as critical support (break risks a flush) and $90k as resistance (break signals reversal). Long-term drivers like post-halving supply crunch, institutional adoption, and ETF flows still favor bulls once this corrects.
This could be another classic "buy the fear" window for those with diamond hands. February often flips the script after painful Januaries. Are you accumulating on these dips, or holding off for $90k+ confirmation? What's your personal February target—$100k bounce or sub-$80k test first? 📉➡️📈
#bitcoin #BTC #crypto #BTCFebruary

Únorový nárůst bitcoinu: Bude rok 2025 pokračovat v trendu?
Podle historických údajů z CoinGlass si Bitcoin (BTC) v únoru trvale vedl dobře a zaznamenal zisky v 10 z posledních 12 let od roku 2013. S průměrnou návratností +15,66 % vyniká únor jako jeden z nejlépe výkonných měsíců bitcoinu .
Pozoruhodné je, že v únoru 2024 došlo k masivnímu nárůstu o +43,55 %, což posílilo silný rekord bitcoinu za tento měsíc. Největší únorový zisk však nastal v roce 2013 (+61,77 %), naopak nejhorší únorový výkon byl v roce 2014 (-31,03 %).