btc70k

Dne 4. června 2024, 14:18 (UTC). Podle Binance Market Data překonal bitcoin (BTC) benchmark 70 000 USDT a nyní se obchoduje za 70 025,851563 USDT s 0,09% nárůstem za 24 hodin.

1. The Week That Whiplashed
Bitcoin entered February near $78,000. On Feb 5, cascading liquidations dragged $BTC to $60,062, roughly 15% intraday, in what Wintermute called the worst single-day drawdown since FTX. Feb 6 brought an 11% snapback above $70,400. By Feb 14–15, BTC settled into a $66K–$72K range (~$69,740 last), over 44% below its October 2025 ATH near $126,080.
This wasn't crypto-only. Tech stocks, silver, and gold sold off simultaneously. $2B+ in crypto positions were liquidated in 48 hours, cross-asset deleveraging, not a crypto event.

2. Data First — ETF Flows and Market Positioning
2.1 From Inflow to Exodus in 72 Hours
Feb 2: +$561.9M net (FBTC +$153.4M, IBIT +$142.0M). Feb 3: −$272.0M (FBTC −$148.7M, GBTC −$56.6M; IBIT lone holdout at +$60M). Feb 5: −$545.0M (IBIT −$373.4M, FBTC −$86.4M). Week ending Feb 14: ~$360M net outflows, fourth consecutive withdrawal week. A $15.2M inflow on Feb 14 broke the daily streak, but it's a data point, not a reversal.

2.2 Outflows Slowed, Volumes Hit Records
Week ending Feb 9: total digital-asset outflows slowed to $187M from $1.7B prior week. BTC bled $264M, but aggregate selling decelerated hard. AuM fell to $129.8B (lowest since March 2025).ETP volumes hit a record $63.1B, repositioning, not capitulation.
Germany (+$87.1M), Switzerland (+$30.1M), Canada (+$21.4M) and Brazil (+$16.7M) posted inflows. BTC was the sole asset with outflows. XRP (+$63.1M), SOL (+$8.2M) and ETH (+$5.3M) attracted capital.
Butterfill noted the pace of outflows has historically been more informative than direction, possible inflection signal, not proof.

3. Macro Tape — CPI Cooling and Rate-Cut Repricing
3.1 CPI: Cooler Than Expected, With a Caveat
January CPI (released Feb 13, delayed by a shutdown)Headline 2.4% YoY (from 2.7%, lowest since May 2025)Core CPI 2.5%MoM headline +0.2% SAShelter rose just 0.2% MoM (annual rate now 3.0%)Energy fell 1.5%Both undercut the 2.5% consensus.
Cooler inflation widens the Fed's runway to cut, constructive for risk assets. But CPI isn't the Fed's preferred gauge (PCE deflator, due Feb 20, is), and the shutdown may have distorted seasonal adjustments. One soft print is encouraging, not conclusive.

3.2 FedWatch: June Cut Odds Jumped
The CME FedWatch tool infers rate probabilities from 30-Day Fed Funds futures, real money, not a forecast.
Post-CPI:
March hold above 91%June cut odds ~83% for 25bpsFull-year pricing: 2–3 cuts, 50–75bps. Current range: 3.50–3.75% after 175bps of easing since Sep 2024Powell's term expires May 2026; Kevin Warsh expected to succeed, genuine policy uncertainty for H2.

4. What Could Change Next
Feb 20: delayed Q4 GDP + December PCE (the Fed's actual gauge). Mar 11: February CPI. Mar 18: FOMC decision (hold expected; statement language matters). May 2026: Powell-to-Warsh transition. Ongoing: stalled Clarity Act and its weight on sentiment.
5. Limits & Uncertainty
One CPI print doesn't confirm disinflation. ETF flows haven't reliably predicted next-day price, a $562M inflow preceded a $272M outflow the next session. The halving-cycle framework rests on three instances, too few for inference. BTC's tech-stock correlation may be temporary. Liquidation data captures on-exchange activity only. The ~$90K average ETF cost basis (Bianco Research) is a model estimate, not audited.
The data shows a market in price discovery, with institutional capital repricing risk alongside macro inputs. Whether that repricing is done, or just starting, no single data point can answer.
#MarketRebound #CPIWatch #btc70k