macrorisk

Standoff mezi USA a Íránem již není jen politický titulek. Proměňuje se v reálný časový stresový test pro globální trhy. Jak napětí eskaluje, tradiční riziková aktiva váhají, likvidita se zpřísňuje a volatilita se vrací do každého grafu.
$BTC
Kryptoměny reagují rychle. Někdy příliš rychle.
Bitcoin je často označován jako „digitální zlato“ během geopolitických otřesů, ale realita je složitější. V první vlně strachu mohou $BTC a $ETH klesnout spolu s akciemi, jak se obchodníci žene ke cash. Pak přichází fáze dvě: nejistota přetrvává, důvěra v tradiční systémy slábne a kryptoměny se začínají odpojit.

“What markets are repricing is not volatility, but trust—specifically, the reliability of institutional boundaries that once anchored global capital.”
A broader and increasingly shared view is taking shape across institutional desks: what many label as a “loss of control” is not an emotional response to a single political headline, but a rational repricing of governance risk. Repeated stress tests on institutional independence—particularly in the United States—are forcing investors to revisit assumptions that once felt immovable.
The criminal investigation involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell strikes at the core of modern financial architecture: central-bank independence. If monetary policymakers can face legal pressure tied to policy decisions, markets must account for a new variable. Governance risk is no longer abstract; it is being embedded directly into discount rates. In this context, recent strength in select haven currencies looks less like a vote of confidence in fundamentals and more like defensive positioning against rising uncertainty within the U.S. system.
At the same time, tariff measures connected to the Greenland dispute highlight a deeper shift in trade policy. Tariffs are no longer confined to economic objectives such as competitiveness or trade balances. Instead, they are increasingly deployed as geopolitical instruments. When trade actions can rapidly extend from rivals to allies—and when political considerations outweigh economic logic—forecasting corporate earnings, supply-chain costs, and capital flows becomes significantly harder.
For institutions, the implication is straightforward: almost any financial channel can be politicized. Tariffs can reshape cost structures overnight, the dollar can function as a tool of financial pressure, and equity markets can be treated as political scoreboards. Traditional macro indicators like inflation and employment still matter, but their influence on risk appetite has diminished in an environment dominated by event risk rather than data.
For years, global asset allocation relied on a core assumption: U.S. institutional stability would ultimately reassert itself. Even during periods of tension, markets expected policy to return to a familiar path. As governance conflicts shift from rhetoric to action—through investigations, sanctions, and abrupt trade decisions—that assumption weakens. The result is a broader rise in risk premia across asset classes.
From an asset-pricing perspective, investors are adding a distinct “governance uncertainty” component to standard models. This can produce seemingly contradictory market behavior. Equity indices may hold up, supported by earnings momentum and buybacks, yet new capital becomes less willing to enter at previous valuations. Allocation behavior shifts subtly but decisively toward lower leverage, reduced exposure, and lower correlation.
Importantly, this adjustment does not require a market crash. Institutional risk management is typically incremental. Rather than aggressive selling, USD exposure is reduced through quieter mechanisms: reinvestment rates fall, maturing positions are not fully rolled, hedge ratios increase, and portions of risk budgets migrate toward non-USD settlement channels or jurisdictions perceived as less exposed to U.S. policy volatility. Over time, this makes the dollar system more sensitive to sentiment shocks and more vulnerable to sudden liquidity discounts.
More Rallies, Less Follow-Through
In this macro regime, crypto markets behave less like independent safe havens and more like extensions of global liquidity conditions. The recent rebound in prices is not unusual. In periods of elevated uncertainty, short-lived recoveries often become more frequent, driven by short covering, normalization in futures basis, and temporary shifts in stablecoin supply.
However, institutional expectations have not materially improved following this rally. The underlying constraint is liquidity. When uncertainty around U.S. fiscal and monetary governance increases, crypto struggles to attract consistent, long-duration capital.
This may appear counterintuitive. In theory, rising institutional uncertainty should benefit non-sovereign assets. In practice, crypto remains deeply embedded in the dollar system. Leverage, settlement infrastructure, derivatives, and stablecoins are overwhelmingly USD-linked. When dollar funding becomes harder to assess and political events dominate price discovery, market-makers reduce risk, leverage contracts quickly, and liquidity becomes thinner and more expensive.
Crypto prices can still rise, but rallies face a structural challenge: sustained trends require stable, affordable, and predictable inflows. In an event-driven environment, those conditions are difficult to maintain.
Another constraint emerges during periods of macro stress: correlations tend to rise. As a higher-volatility asset, crypto is often used as an early adjustment lever in institutional portfolios. Exposure is reduced or hedged not because of long-term skepticism, but because crypto efficiently absorbs risk budget changes. Rallies are fueled by technical flows; drawdowns are driven by hedging and tighter constraints.
A deeper shift is also underway. Inflation and employment—once central to the market’s policy framework—are increasingly sidelined by political priorities. The old reaction function, where data guided expectations in a relatively stable way, is breaking down. When tariffs, investigations, and regulatory actions can override macro signals, the informational value of data declines, and event risk takes center stage.
This also weakens a long-standing stabilizer: the “central-bank put.” If central-bank independence is questioned, the credibility of policy backstops diminishes. Institutions respond predictably—shorter duration, heavier hedging, reduced concentration in any single currency system, and broader diversification across regions and legal frameworks.
There has been no panic. But there has been adjustment. Institutional capital is quietly reducing reliance on USD-linked exposure in a gradual, systematic way that rarely shows up in headlines. For USD assets, valuations are increasingly shaped by governance-related risk premia. For crypto, this means more frequent rebounds, but fewer rallies that develop into durable trends.
Markets are moving from a data-driven regime to an event-driven one. The institutional response is not about predicting a single outcome—it is about updating constraints in advance, preserving liquidity, strengthening hedges, and waiting for a new and credible pricing anchor to emerge.
#MacroRisk #GovernanceRisk #MarketStructure #CryptoEducation #ArifAlpha

DLAŽEBNÍ KAMENY DLUHŮ 9–10 BILIONŮ USD 2026: Hromadíte aktiva, nebo tiše nabíráte „bombu“ likvidity do portfolia

Zatímco trh stále váhá mezi nákupním dipem a mrtvou kočkou, jedno systémové makro riziko tiše postupuje velmi blízko: přibližně 9–10 bilionů USD dluhopisů amerického ministerstva financí (U.S. Treasury) bude splatných a musí být refinancováno v roce 2026 (podle odhadů od Deloitte, Apollo, ZeroHedge makro desk a dat z Treasury).