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McGlone links bitcoin’s downturn to record U.S. market cap-to-GDP levels, low equity volatility and rising gold prices, warning of potential contagion into stocks.
After climbing back to $70,841 by 07:00 UTC on Feb. 15 from $65,395 late on Feb. 12, bitcoin was hovering around $68,800 by mid-morning. The broader crypto market was also in the red Monday, with 85 of the top 100 tokens posting losses. Privacy-focused coins monero and zcash were down 10% and 8%, respectively over the past 24 hours.
Healthy Correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos,” McGlone wrote. “The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over.”
McGlone pointed to several macro indicators that reflect elevated risk conditions. U.S. stock market capitalization relative to gross domestic product (GDP) has reached its highest level in roughly a century, he noted. At the same time, 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is at its lowest level in about eight years, McGlone added.
He also described the “crypto bubble” as “imploding,” adding that “Trump euphoria” has peaked and is contributing to contagion across markets. Meanwhile, gold and silver are “grabbing alpha” at a pace last seen about half a century ago, with rising volatility that he said could “trickle up” into equities.
McGlone shared a chart comparing bitcoin divided by 10 for scaling, with the S&P 500. As of Feb. 13, both were hovering below 7,000 on his graphic. He said that “volatile and beta-dependent” bitcoin is unlikely to stay above that level if broader equity beta weakens.
The Bloomberg analyst identified 5,600 on the S&P 500, equivalent to roughly $56,000 for bitcoin under his scaling, as an initial “normal reversion” level. Beyond that, part of his base case calls for bitcoin to revert toward $10,000, contingent on a peak in the U.S. stock market.
McGlone’s outlook splits opinion
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, told CoinDesk that McGlone’s thesis assumes market extremes must resolve through collapse and that bitcoin’s equity beta g
That’s false equivalence and single-path bias,” Fernandes said. “Markets can also resolve excess through time, rotation, or inflation erosion. A macro slowdown could mean consolidation or a $40,000 to $50,000 reset, not a systemic unwind to $10,000.”
Fernandes added that a move toward $10,000 would likely require a true systemic event, including sharp liquidity contraction, widening credit spreads, forced deleveraging across funds and a disorderly equity drawdown.
That implies recession plus financial stress, not just slower growth,” he said. “Absent a credit shock or policy mistake that drains global liquidity, that kind of collapse remains a low-probability tail risk.”
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DeFi Education Fund říká, že vývojáři nekustodialních protokolů by neměli být regulováni jako zprostředkovatelé podle navrhovaného kryptorežimu ve Spojeném království.
Kontrola by měla být určujícím faktorem regulativního rozsahu,” uvedla DEF a varovala, že vývojáři softwaru by jinak mohli být zataženi do povinností podobných zprostředkovatelům, přestože by postrádali oprávnění k držení nebo transakční autoritu.
Podání se zaměřuje na oblast konzultace, která zvažuje, jak by měly být decentralizované finance (DeFi) považovány podle vznikajícího kryptorežimu ve Spojeném království. DEF v zásadě podporuje přístup FCA založený na kontrole, ale říká, že musí být vázán na konkrétní provozní pravomoci, jako je schopnost zahájit nebo zablokovat transakce, upravit parametry protokolu nebo vyloučit uživatele.