comexupdate

20 Million Ounces $XAG Draining Monthly. A 26% Physical Premium. Delivery at 98%.
This is no longer a price story.
It is a liquidity story.
More precisely:
a physical liquidity story inside a system built on paper leverage.
Silver at COMEX is not behaving like a normal commodity market.
It is behaving like a warehouse under stress.
I. Registered Silver: The Structural Drawdown
Five months ago:
200 million ounces of registered (deliverable) silver.
As of February 19, 2026:
88.79 million ounces remain.
A decline of more than 55% in less than half a year.
Average monthly drain:
~20 million ounces.
That represents roughly 30% of global monthly mine production.
If this pace continues — and if March contracts are not sufficiently rolled — registered inventory could mathematically approach zero by March 6, 2026.
A futures exchange without deliverable inventory is not a volatility event.
It is a structural event.
II. The Paper Price vs. The Real Price
COMEX reference price: ~ $55/oz.
Meanwhile:
First Majestic reports realized silver prices of ~$69.74/oz.Hecla Mining reports realized prices of ~$69.28/oz.
Two companies.
Two jurisdictions.
Two independent audit systems.
Same number: ~ $69.
That implies a 26–30% premium over COMEX pricing.
Industrial buyers are paying roughly $14 more per ounce to secure metal directly from miners rather than rely on exchange delivery.
This is not a temporary dislocation.
It is the physical market establishing its own clearing price.
COMEX may still set the reference.
It no longer appears to set reality.
III. Market Distortions Accelerating
1. Delivery Rate: 98%
Normal historical range: 5–20%.
February 2026: 98%.
Nearly every contract holder is demanding physical settlement.
When participants prefer metal over cash at scale,
the system is no longer functioning as a hedging venue.
It is functioning as a stress point.

2. Backwardation
Spot and near-dated contracts are trading above deferred months.
In commodity markets, persistent backwardation signals immediate physical scarcity.
It reflects urgency.
It reflects preference for present metal over future promises.

3. The China Arbitrage Channel
Shanghai silver $XAG trades up to $18/oz above New York.
Result:
Physical metal flows from the U.S. to China.
And it does not return.
Arbitrage is not just price convergence.
It is inventory extraction.
IV. Policy Friction: The Emerging Price Floor
While bullion banks attempt to contain paper pricing, U.S. policy signals move in the opposite direction.
Senior officials have confirmed the development of sophisticated price-floor mechanisms for strategic minerals — including silver.
The objective is clear:
Encourage domestic investment.
Secure supply chains.
Strengthen national resilience.
Strategic metals are not incentivized by suppressed pricing.
This creates a structural tension between short positioning and national industrial policy.
V. Five Indicators Over the Next Five Trading Days
Ahead of first notice day:
Roll rate
If open interest does not decline materially, March delivery pressure intensifies.
Registered inventory below ~85 million ounces
Delivery optionality becomes constrained.
Deeper backwardation spreads
Signals escalating physical stress.
Margin hikes
Indicates exchange intervention to reduce long positioning.
Eligible inventory declining alongside registered
Escalates risk from tightness to system-wide constraint.
Conclusion
The paper silver $XAG market is running out of time.
The physical silver market has already repriced — around $69 per ounce.
Such divergences rarely persist indefinitely.
Either:
Paper prices adjust upward,
orDelivery mechanisms face intervention or technical failure.
In this environment, the primary risk is not volatility.
It is availability.
When a centralized exchange begins to lose deliverable credibility,
repricing becomes less about speculation
and more about system integrity.
Quietly.
But decisively.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#SilverDrain #Silver #COMEXUpdate

2025 wasn’t a rally.
It was a regime shift.
Gold $XAU didn’t just rise — it detonated higher.
Up 55% in a single year.
Fifty-three all-time highs.
Nearly one new record per week.
Strongest annual performance since 1979.
And we are now pressing against $5,000 per ounce.
This is not late-cycle euphoria.
It’s early-stage repricing.
1. Wall Street Is Still Underestimating the Move
The big banks are adjusting — but cautiously.
Goldman Sachs sees $5,400 by end of 2026, while openly admitting “significant upside risk.”JP Morgan sets a $6,300 base case.Their bullish scenario? $8,000–$12,000.
Those are not retail YouTube targets.
That’s institutional modeling.
And yet — allocations remain tiny.
More on that later.
2. Silver: The Quiet Structural Break
While gold headlines dominate, silver is where the imbalance is more violent.
Inventory Reality
COMEX silver inventories are down ~75% from 2020 levels.The global silver market has run a cumulative deficit of roughly 800 million ounces in recent years.That’s approximately one full year of global mine supply.
This isn’t cyclical.
It’s cumulative.

Industrial Pressure Is Exploding
Silver $XAG isn’t just a monetary metal.
It’s an industrial input:
AI semiconductorsSolar panelsEV battery systems
Industrial buyers used to hold 3–4 months of inventory.
Now?
Closer to one month.
That is not comfort inventory.
That is just-in-time vulnerability.
When buffer shrinks, price elasticity disappears.
3. The Three Forces Driving the Precious Metals Supercycle:
This isn’t a trade.
It’s macro physics.

Force #1: Currency Debasement
Governments don’t confiscate wealth directly.
They dilute it.
U.S. money supply expanded from $15 trillion to $21 trillion during COVID — over 40% expansion.
National debt: $38 trillion.
Interest expense?
Tripled in five years.
Governments do not default when debt becomes unbearable.
They inflate.
They allow the currency to lose purchasing power against real assets.
For 5,000 years, gold has survived one constant:
Paper eventually expands.
Metal does not.

Force #2: Central Bank Realignment
In 2022, Western nations froze Russia’s FX reserves.
That was a watershed moment.
It shattered the illusion that dollar reserves are politically neutral.
Since then:
Central bank gold purchases have increased fivefold.Poland, China, Turkey and others are aggressively accumulating physical metal.
Here’s the structural asymmetry:
Gold represents roughly:
~70% of reserves for the U.S., Germany, Italy.Only ~8% of reserves for China.
That gap is strategic.
If China merely rebalances toward Western reserve ratios, demand pressure becomes seismic.
This isn’t speculation.
It’s reserve diversification.

Force #3: Retail Has Barely Arrived
Despite the headlines, retail participation is still minimal.
Global fund allocation to gold?
Under 1%.
JP Morgan estimates that if allocations rise by just 0.5%, gold could mechanically reprice to around $6,000 almost immediately.
Think about that.
Half a percentage point.
We are nowhere near speculative mania.
We are in early institutional positioning.
4. Strategy: Understand the Risk Layers
Not all exposure is equal.
Miners: High Beta, High Risk:
Mining equities act as leveraged instruments on metal prices.
Upside can be explosive.
So can drawdowns.
Without risk management, they can destroy capital as quickly as they create it.
This is not passive exposure.
It’s tactical.
Physical Gold: Low Volatility Core:
Physical metal carries lower operational risk.
No management risk.
No counterparty risk.
No production surprises.
It functions as monetary insurance.
Less dramatic.
More durable.

The Bigger Picture:
Record sovereign debt.
Rising interest burdens.
Dollar reserve distrust.
Structural silver deficits.
Central banks accumulating.
Retail underexposed.
That combination doesn’t produce a normal bull market.
It produces repricing.
Gold $XAU approaching $5,000 isn’t a climax.
It’s confirmation.
Silver’s supply squeeze isn’t noise.
It’s pressure building inside the system.
And when institutional money rotates at scale,
price does not drift higher.
It gaps.
The public still thinks this is a rally.
It isn’t.
It’s a reset.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#GOLD #Silver #COMEXUpdate

Trh se stříbrem $XAG právě překročil hranici.
Ne, to není sentiment.
Ne, to není spekulace.
Politika.
Únor 2026 si možná lidé zapamatují jako měsíc, kdy americká vláda tiše přiznala, co trh roky popíral:
Stříbro je strukturálně podhodnoceno — a cena na volném trhu již není důvěryhodná.
Tady je to, co se změnilo.
1. Cenové dno stříbra v USA je skutečné
Podle zpráv potvrzených úředníky ministerstva zahraničí USA Washington zavádí mechanismus cenového dna pro strategické minerály — včetně stříbra.

This is no longer about price.
It is about delivery.
It is about control.
And it may become the day the Western paper silver system is exposed.
The global silver $XAG market is approaching a structural emergency — and February 27, 2026 could mark the inflection point.
1. The COMEX Delivery Crisis – A Mathematical Event
February 27 is the First Notice Day for March silver $XAG futures on COMEX.
This is when traders must choose:
Roll the contract,Close for cash,Or demand physical delivery.
Under normal conditions, this is procedural.
This time, it is existential.
Over 400 million ounces are tied to March contracts.
COMEX has only 98 million ounces of registered silver available for delivery.
For the first time since modern records began, registered inventory fell below the psychological 100-million-ounce threshold on February 11, 2026.
Withdrawals are accelerating — averaging roughly 785,000 ounces per day.
If just 25–50% of contract holders demand physical metal, the exchange simply cannot perform.
This is not speculation.
This is arithmetic.
2. Investors Are Abandoning Paper
Historically, only 3–5% of futures traders take delivery.
February 2026 shattered that norm.
Delivery demand surged to 98%.
Even more revealing: during the violent price collapse on January 30 — when silver plunged from $121 to $64 — 3.3 million ounces were still withdrawn from vaults.
That behavior does not belong to retail speculators.
It signals something deeper:
Large players no longer trust “paper price.”
They want metal in hand.
When capital chooses custody over leverage, the system is already under stress.

3. The East–West Resource Divide
The silver market is fragmenting into geopolitical blocs — North America, Europe, Asia.
And the metal is flowing East.
China now controls roughly 70% of global refined silver output and added silver to its export control list effective January 1, 2026.
Shanghai inventories have fallen to just 318 tons, while massive short positions — reportedly up to 450 tons — sit exposed.
That imbalance echoes the nickel short squeeze of 2022.
Meanwhile, corporate behavior is shifting.
Samsung recently secured an exclusive two-year offtake agreement for the full output of a Mexican silver mine — bypassing exchanges entirely.
When technology giants stop relying on centralized exchanges for supply, they are voting with capital.
And they are voting against the paper system.
4. Signs of Structural Stress
The January collapse was not a normal correction.
CME raised margin requirements to 9%, creating what many describe as an automatic liquidation machine — forcing long positions to unwind into falling prices.
At the exact bottom on January 30, JP Morgan reportedly stood for delivery of over 3 million ounces at distressed prices.
Liquidity crisis for some.
Inventory acquisition opportunity for others.
Regulatory contrast is equally telling:
The U.S. remained largely silent.China suspended five commodity funds and penalized hundreds of traders for naked short selling to stabilize its domestic market.
Two systems.
Two philosophies of control.
5. The Structural Deficit
The world is running a 40–50 million ounce monthly silver deficit.
Since 2021, cumulative shortages have reached approximately 820 million ounces.
That is not cyclical.
That is structural.
Silver $XAG is no longer just an investment asset.
It is an industrial necessity — solar, electronics, defense systems, AI infrastructure.
Deficits in strategic materials do not resolve quietly.
They reprice.
6. The Force Majeure Scenario
If COMEX cannot deliver on February 27, it may declare force majeure and settle contracts in cash.
Legally possible.
Psychologically catastrophic.
Cash settlement would confirm what many already suspect:
Paper silver is leverage.
Physical silver is reality.
In that scenario, the price outside the paper system could decouple violently.
If the gold-silver ratio compresses under stress, projections of $300–$400 silver move from fantasy to probability.
Final Assessment
February 27, 2026 is not just another contract cycle.
It is a stress test of the Western silver pricing mechanism.
Governments are stockpiling.
Technology corporations are locking in supply.
Eastern markets are tightening control.
Silver is no longer a trade.
It is a strategic resource in a global power contest.
And when the custodians of paper cannot deliver metal,
price discovery will not be negotiated —
it will be forced.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#COMEXUpdate #Silver #SilverDrain

$3,6 nghìn tỷ USD bốc hơi trong 90 phút.
Truyền thông gọi đó là “healthy correction”.
Nhưng thị trường liên thông và dòng chảy vật chất lại kể một câu chuyện khác:
Đây không phải biến động.
Đây là quản trị rủi ro hệ thống.
1. Khi “Giá” Không Còn Là Giá
New York: $XAG $75–76/oz
Thượng Hải: $XAG $82/oz spot – $85/oz futures
Chênh lệch ~10%.
Trong thị trường kim loại, đó không phải là spread.
Đó là tín hiệu đứt gãy niềm tin.
Nếu arbitrage còn hoạt động, khoảng cách này đã bị san phẳng.
Nhưng nó không bị san phẳng.
Lý do đơn giản:
Giấy không còn được xem tương đương với kim loại.
Khi thị trường không tin vào khả năng giao hàng, premium xuất hiện.
Khi premium duy trì, hệ thống bắt đầu rạn nứt.

2. Khoảng Trống Thanh Khoản Được Tính Toán
Ngày 11/02 không phải ngẫu nhiên.
Từ 15/02 đến 23/02, Thượng Hải nghỉ Tết.
Người mua vật chất lớn nhất tạm rời khỏi thị trường.
Trong khoảng trống đó, áp lực bán thuật toán được kích hoạt.
Không phải để phá giá dài hạn.
Mà để quét stop-loss, ép thanh khoản và giải phóng áp lực giao hàng.
Đây không phải chiến tranh giá.
Đây là quản trị thời điểm.
3. COMEX: Khi Toán Học Bắt Đầu Nói Chuyện
429 triệu oz yêu cầu giao dịch tháng 3.
103,5 triệu oz trong kho đăng ký.
Tỷ lệ hơn 4:1.
Mô hình này chỉ vận hành nếu:
– Phần lớn người giữ hợp đồng chấp nhận cash settlement
– Hoặc giá đủ thấp để họ tự nguyện thoát vị thế
Giá bị ép xuống không phải vì cung dồi dào.
Mà vì giao hàng vật chất là rủi ro hệ thống.
Toán học không bao giờ cảm xúc.
Nó chỉ chờ thời điểm.
4. CPI Và Chiến Lược “Reset Trước Tin”
CPI công bố ngày 13/02.
Nếu lạm phát nóng → kim loại bật tăng.
Việc kéo giá xuống trước tin tạo ra:
– Vị thế tích lũy giá thấp
– Reset cấu trúc kỹ thuật
– Giảm áp lực short trước sóng biến động
Không phải phản ứng.
Là chuẩn bị.
5. Bức Tranh Lớn Hơn: Vàng, Bạc Và Dòng Chảy Sovereign
Trong khi thị trường đàm phán, Nga vẫn tiếp tục mua thêm bạc.
Dù kết quả địa chính trị ra sao, các ngân hàng trung ương Trung Quốc và Ấn Độ vẫn tăng dự trữ vàng $XAU .
Và nếu 300 tỷ USD tài sản bị đóng băng được mở khoá?
Khả năng cao một phần sẽ chuyển hoá thành vàng.
Sovereigns không tranh luận trên truyền hình.
Họ hedge.
Dollar có thể trở lại chu kỳ mạnh.
Nhưng vàng và bạc chưa từng rời khỏi cấu trúc dự trữ.
Kết Luận
Đây không phải sụp đổ.
Đây là rung cây.
Cung bạc toàn cầu vẫn thâm hụt năm thứ 6 liên tiếp.
Nhu cầu kim loại vật chất tại châu Á không hề suy yếu.
Câu hỏi không phải là: “Giá đã giảm bao nhiêu?”
Mà là: “Bao nhiêu hợp đồng thực sự có thể giao hàng?”
Ngày 27/02 sẽ cho thấy điều đó.
Toán học không thể bị trì hoãn mãi.
Chỉ có thể được quản lý — cho đến khi không còn quản lý được nữa.
Theo dõi kênh của tôi để nhận thêm các phân tích chuyên sâu và những góc nhìn có tín hiệu cao!
*Đây là quan điểm cá nhân, không phải khuyến nghị đầu tư.

#Silver #SilverDrain #COMEXUpdate

Únor 2026.
Zatímco svět je stále napůl ve spánku, hypnotizován akciemi AI a technologickými narativy, finanční tsunami tiše roste pod podlahou COMEX.
Brutální scénář se formuje:
Největší burza stříbra na světě je na pokraji vyčerpání fyzického stříbra.
.
Ignorujte vyleštěné mluvčí v televizi. Ignorujte narativy o „dobře řízených zásobách“.
Syrová čísla vyprávějí mnohem temnější příběh.
1. Iluze „Zásoby“: 100 bochníků chleba pro 400 hladových lidí.
COMEX aktuálně uvádí pouze 103 miliony uncí registrovaného stříbra dostupného k dodání.