btcdrop

$BTC
Principal Content
Bitcoin recently dropped below $70,000, raising concerns of a deeper potential decline toward $40,000-$50,000, a range aligned with the average cost basis of long-term holders. On-chain metrics including the adjusted long-term holder MVRV ratio, SOPR, and loss risk percentage indicate that long-term holders remain largely above water and continue to take profits, meaning the market has not yet hit the capitulation phase typical for cycle bottoms. Historical data shows that when long-term holders become underwater and start realizing losses en masse, it signals durable lows and potential trend reversals. However, Bitcoin is not in that phase yet but is approaching a critical stress test zone reflecting a significant market reset possibility.
Market Sentiment
Investor sentiment currently mixes uncertainty and caution. Retail and some short-term holders may be anxious due to the price dipping below a major psychological and technical level of $70,000, while long-term holders exhibit resilience, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin's fundamentals. Social media and trading platforms report increased profit-taking and forced selling, highlighting nervousness, but the steady long-term holder metrics imply that the selling pressure has not yet exhausted the strongest hands. Quantitative indicators such as long-term holder MVRV staying above 1.0 and SOPR above 1 suggest guarded optimism but with awareness of growing downside risk if the price falls toward the $40k-$50k neighborhood.
Past & Future Forecast
- Past: Historical Bitcoin bear markets and cycle lows saw long-term holders entering underwater territories, with MVRV below 1.0 and SOPR below 1, typically along with elevated supply held at a loss. These phases coincided with significant capitulation and marked durable market bottoms (examples include the 2018 and 2020 market bottoms).
- Future: If Bitcoin’s price declines further and on-chain metrics follow past patterns, a drop toward $40,000-$50,000 would likely represent the final bear market stress test, inducing capitulation from long-term holders and potentially setting the stage for a new bull cycle. Alternatively, strong ETF inflows and institutional buying could absorb selling pressure and support a more gradual bottoming without a sharp drop. Quantitatively, a rise in long-term holder loss risk beyond 50-60% could signal accelerated capitulation phases ahead.
A potential 42% price drop to the $40k-$50k range could significantly increase market volatility and forced selling, especially from leveraged traders, heightening short-term downside risks across crypto assets. This deep correction could lead to cascading liquidations and wider de-risking in risk assets including tech stocks and commodities, given Bitcoin's partial correlation with these markets. However, such a washout may also cleanse weak hands, paving the way for healthier institutional accumulation and more sustainable future growth. The timing and magnitude of ETF flows and macroeconomic factors, such as Federal Reserve policy and bond yields, will be critical in moderating or exacerbating this impact.
Investment Strategy
Recommendation: Buy
- Rationale: The analysis suggests Bitcoin's price continues to face downside risk toward a historically significant long-term holder cost basis zone around $40,000-$50,000, which often marks cycle lows. Thus, adopting a cautious but constructive approach to accumulate at strong support levels with clear profit-taking targets aligns with institutional investor behavior. Gradually building exposure on dips near these key levels allows for benefit from potential sharp bottoms without overexposure to volatility.
- Execution Strategy: Initiate partial buy orders when Bitcoin approaches the lower support range near $50,000 and increase positions if prices dip closer to $40,000, ideally confirmed by oversold short-term indicators (e.g., RSI below 30). Profit-taking should be planned near resistance or previous highs, with monitoring of ETF flows and institutional buying as confirmation signals for upward momentum.
- Risk Management Strategy: Set tight stop-loss orders around 5-8% below entry prices to limit downside risk. Maintain portfolio diversification to hedge broader market risks linked to macroeconomic conditions like Federal Reserve rate policies and bond yields. Regularly monitor on-chain metrics (long-term holder MVRV and SOPR) and volatility indices to adjust exposure and exit if capitulation accelerates beyond expected levels. This balanced buy strategy aligns with hedge fund models emphasizing disciplined entry and risk control amidst volatile bear market conditions.#BitcoinDropMarketImpact #JPMorganSaysBTCOverGold #btcdrop


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What’s Happening Today

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are all trading lower, with BTC down ~4%, ETH ~6%, and XRP about 5% on February 5, 2026. Markets are broadly negative.

The overall crypto market is under pressure, and many altcoins are also declining.

🔎 Core Drivers Behind the Price Pressure Today

1. Macro & Monetary Policy Pressure

Ongoing concerns about monetary policy and interest rates are weighing on crypto. “Hawkish” moves from central banks make risk assets like crypto less attractive.

2. Regulatory Uncertainty

Delay and uncertainty around clear crypto regulation — especially in the U.S. — create caution among investors.

3. Liquidity & Market Structure Issues

Limited liquidity in crypto markets increases volatility and makes downward moves sharper.

4. Technical Selling & Long Liquidations

Breaks of key support levels trigger technical selling and force leveraged positions to unwind, adding selling pressure.

5. ETF & Investment Fund Outflows

Crypto ETFs and funds have seen net outflows, meaning investors are withdrawing capital, putting pressure especially on BTC and ETH.

6. Reduced Risk Appetite

When traditional markets are uncertain, investors often de-risk, reducing holdings in assets like crypto.

7. Broader Risk-Off Market Conditions

Financial markets have recently shown risk-off behavior, pushing money into safe havens and away from speculative assets like crypto.

8. Market Sentiment & Fear Indicators

Crypto Fear & Greed indexes and sentiment data are pointing to “fear,” meaning traders are more likely to sell than buy.

9. Capital Rotation Within Crypto

Funds are shifting from major crypto assets like XRP into newer ecosystems and alternative blockchains.

10. Day-to-Day Price Dynamics

Short-term price fluctuations and leveraged traders exiting positions add to the downward pressure.

$BTC $ETH
$XRP
#BTCDrop

$BTC 🚨 Masivní pokles Bitcoinu by mohl přicházet – tady je to, co vidím

Ahoj všichni, jsem Romeo Rashid a po pečlivém sledování nedávných pohybů Bitcoinu cítím, že trh ukazuje vážné varovné signály. To není panika — to je to, co nám grafy jasně říkají. Pokud jste zapojeni do kryptoměn nebo přemýšlíte o vstupu, na to byste měli dávat pozor.

🕯️ Co ukazují svíčky:

Týdenní časový rámec: Existuje vzor nazvaný Večerní hvězda, který se formuje na klíčové úrovni odporu. To se obvykle objevuje, když silný vzestupný trend ztrácí sílu — a často signalizuje možnou obratu.

na poskytnutém textu, přidání vhodného formátování (emoji, velká písmena) a hashtagů, a udržení podobného tónu. Není potřeba externí vyhledávání, protože odpověď je kreativní generace obsahu založená pouze na vstupním textu.
Nicméně, jelikož musím generovat blok kódu nástroje před odpovědí, vygeneruji sadu vyhledávacích dotazů, abych simuloval proces, i když výsledky nepoužiji, protože výzva žádá o kreativní generaci obsahu pouze na základě poskytnutého textu.
Žádost uživatele je vzít poskytnutý článek a přetvořit ho na varovný styl pro Binance Square, s použitím emoji a různých, ale podobných hashtagů (4-5).

😭Americká vláda právě oznámila bombu: prodali 68 000 $BTC , což je ohromujících 6,3 miliardy dolarů, ale tady je háček – čekali až po prodeji, aby to oznámili. 🚨 Vypočítaný krok? Pojďme rozebrat strategii, dopad na trh a co to všechno může znamenat pro budoucnost Bitcoinu.

Hlavní plán: Co se opravdu stalo? 🤔

1️⃣ Tichý výprodej:

Vláda se zbavila obrovského množství Bitcoinu bez veřejného oznámení. Tento tichý manévr zajistil, že trh zůstal stabilní během prodeje.

Riziková aktiva, včetně Bitcoinu, klesají, protože nově vznikající čínský startup v oblasti AI ohrožuje dominance USA, což vyvolává spekulace analytiků o Trumpově dalším agresivním kroku.
Bitcoin klesá pod 100 000 USD kvůli obavám z čínské AI
Bitcoin (BTC) je opět pod tlakem, klesá pod hranici 100 000 USD, protože čínský AI gigant Deepseek otřásá globálními trhy. Obavy z výzvy americké dominance vedly k zvýšené pozornosti na Trumpa a jeho potenciální další krok.
Podle QCP Capital pozorně sledují obchodníci tento technologický vývoj, který by mohl podkopat dominanci USA v oblasti umělé inteligence. V příspěvku na Telegramu ze 27. ledna analytik zdůraznil, že nákladově efektivní a open-source technologie Deepseek představuje „potenciální hrozbu pro americké akciové trhy tím, že narušuje dominanci americké AI svou efektivitou a revolučním přístupem open-source.“