Kralice 1
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Kralice 1
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Bugün Bitcoin için 64.2k yine ana seviye. Dün satış yedi ama bugün fiyat bu bölgeye geri dönmeye çalışıyor. Cuma ETF’lerinin pozitif gelmesi güzel: $BTC ETF’lerine 132 milyon dolar giriş var, IBIT güçlü. Ama tablo tamamen pozitif değil. CLARITY Act ihtimali %32’ye düşmüş. Yani regülasyon netliği gecikiyor. Bir de Çin’in Kimi K3 modeli AI/çip trade’ini sarstı; BTC de son dönemde bu risk iştahıyla beraber hareket ediyor. Bitcoin için: 64.2k üstü kalıcılık pozitif. 65k-65.6k yeniden test edilebilir. 63.2k altına sarkarsa temkinli olurum. Bugünkü yönüm: sabit-yukarı. FOMO yapamayız ama ETF tarafı sayesinde umut var.
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Bitcoin bize çok net bir şey söyledi: 65K hâlâ direnç ve satış baskısını kırmak zor olacak. Dün enflasyon verisiyle güzel bir ralli geldi ama bugün o ralli satıldı. $BTC 64.2k’yı kaybetti ve beklediğimiz destek bölgesi olan 62.7k-63k’ya geri döndü. Bence sorun sadece grafik değil. Hem uzun vadeli yatırımcılar hem kısa vadeli yatırımcılar 65k rallisini satış fırsatı olarak kullanıyor. Bu da 65k’yı psikolojik bir tavana çeviriyor. ETF’ler pozitifti, evet. Ama +79 milyon dolarlık giriş bu satış duvarını kırmaya yetmedi. Bir de dış piyasa var: chip/AI trade çözülüyor. $ETH daha sert düştü, $HYPE %10 geriledi. Yani kripto bugün global risk iştahıyla beraber satıldı. Bitcoin için: 62.7k korunursa tepki gelebilir. 64.2k geri alınırsa piyasa nefes alır. 62k altı gelirse 61.6k ve 60k yeniden masada. Bugünkü yönüm: aşağı-sabit.
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Kripto için makro taraf iyi. Evet, ETF’ler pozitif. Ama 65k üstünde hâlâ satış baskısı yüksek. $BTC enflasyon verileriyle güzel yükseldi ama bugün 65k bölgesinde tutunamadı. Hem yüksekten alan uzun vadeli yatırımcılar yükselişi çıkış fırsatı olarak kullanıyor, hem de dipten alan kısa vadeli yatırımcılar kâr alıyor. Yani burada sorun yukarıda satış duvarı olması. O yüzden daha kuvvetli bir momentum gerekiyor. Bitcoin için bu seviyeler önemli: 64.2k geri alınırsa piyasa nefes alır. 65.6k üstü kalıcılık gelirse hedef olarak 67.2k konuşuruz. Bugünkü yönüm: SABİT-AŞAĞI. 65k henüz destek değil, hâlâ sınav :/
Today’s CPI reduced pressure on the Fed. That’s net positive for $BTC. But for a real bull run, three things are needed: • A decline in inflation risk • A decline in Oil/Hormuz pressure • Ensuring BTC can hold above 65.6k and 67.2k A nice ignition came today. But confirmation is still needed for a trend reversal. Today’s Direction: UP
Today, the market clearly priced in the US CPI data. US inflation came in at 3.5%, below expectations. The monthly CPI also showed a decline. With core inflation coming in softer than expected, the market priced in this: “The Fed’s pressure to raise interest rates is easing.” That’s why $BTC very quickly broke through the 64.2k resistance and rose to the 64.6k–64.8k zone, as we can see on the chart.
Despite the weekend war news, Bitcoin hadn’t collapsed. That’s why I said we should be careful against sudden drops. On Monday, when the real liquidity arrived, the market priced in the bad news. $BTC got rejected at the 64.2k resistance (this part is very important), then with the war-news-driven selling accelerating, it dropped into the 62k area. Oil is rising, the Hormuz risk is increasing, and the Fed’s inflation pressure is coming back to mind. On the strategy side, the good news is this: this time, they didn’t sell BTC. They increased cash reserves, but the BTC position didn’t change. WARNING: If 62.1k is held, a reaction could come. If 61.2k breaks, 60k comes back onto the table. Today’s direction: stable-down.
Today the crypto market is surprisingly calm. 🥲 Despite the U.S. carrying out new attacks on Iran and Iran saying it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, $BTC stayed roughly flat around 64.1k; $ETH is also calm around $1,800. The real big reaction will most likely come from the oil market at the Monday opening. 💥🤯 Iran says “Hormuz is closed,” while the U.S. says “open to all ships.” This contradiction is important because the market is trying to figure out whether this is an actual closure right now or just a political threat. While U.S. Central Command says traffic is continuing, some sources say crossings are below normal. But the fact that BTC doesn’t fall today is important. For now, the market isn’t pricing this news in panic. Sustainability above 64.2k: Positive.
Crypto today, the real question is this: did the rally stall again, or was it just taking a breather? About $85 million flowed out of the $BTC ETFs. I don’t think that alone is a reason for panic; it could have been expected after yesterday’s drop. But it’s important that the ETH ETFs stayed positive—this means the market isn’t fully backing away from crypto; it’s being selective. On the macro side, unemployment claims came in stronger than expected. That doesn’t really make things easier for the Fed. I think if BTC can’t reclaim 63.2K, the risk of 62K and 60.7K remains on the table. My stance today: FIXED. The market isn’t making a decision right now—it’s either gathering strength or preparing for another selloff, and we’re watching to see which.
Why Did the Rise in Crypto Markets Stop? I said that as long as Bitcoin stays above 63.2k, it would move higher; once it lost support, the upside scenario weakened. On the charts, we can see rejections coming from resistance levels. The recovery may take a bit longer. In the news flow, Trump’s statement that the Iran ceasefire is “over” boosted oil and led to selling in risk assets. $BTC couldn’t escape this sell-off either. Additionally: * Trump threatened to cut trade with Spain * The Central Bank of India may ban crypto. * Even though the ETF trend stayed positive, inflows were still quite low. *** FOMC minutes: to be released tonight in Turkey time. Not yet announced. If a hawkish tone comes through (near a rate-hike tone), USD/bond yields could strengthen and pressure on BTC could increase. Today, the direction looks DOWN. There is pressure on Bitcoin.
Today, after a long break, I’m speaking comfortably for the first time. ETFs are positive again. 🎉🥳 $BTC saw $265 million in inflows into ETFs, and $ETH ETFs are also positive. The $209 million inflow into IBIT is especially important because in the recent drop, the part that was most demoralizing was the disappearance of institutional demand. Bitcoin is currently around 64k. The next real test is 65k–65.6k. Polymarket is pricing this in: the probability of seeing 65k in July is 86%, and the probability of 67.5k is 55%. In other words, the market now seriously sees the possibility of continuation upward, not just a downside. However, the Fed side is still not fully supportive. This year’s rate cut expectations are weak. Also, longs are at twice the level of shorts—this means it can push upward, but it also means there’s a risk of fast liquidations if it goes down. Pay attention! My plan is clear: stay positive as long as we hold above 63.2k. 65k–65.6k is the MAIN EXAM. My direction today: UP.
Today the market fell with the news “Saylor sold it” | Bitcoin immediately reacted. Strategy bought $3,588 BTC. Total is approximately $216 million. Saylor is no longer just the buyer; when needed, he’s the seller too. This is what breaks the market’s morale. But the good side: support wasn’t completely broken (On the charts, clear buy reactions from support are visible). Right now, BTC is still trying to stay afloat. The ISM data also didn’t come in too badly. The services sector is still growing, but slowing a bit. Normally, that could have supported BTC, but the Strategy selling outweighed it. My plan: if 61.3k is preserved, there’s no panic. But if 61.3k breaks, 60k and 58.8k will come back on the table. Today’s stance: NEUTRAL. Neither bullish nor bearish. The market is making a decision right now.
Bitcoin was focused on an upward move over the weekend. 🎉 This move from 58k to above 63k is great—actually morale-boosting. But part of the rally came in low liquidity due to the July 4 holiday. Still, let’s give credit where it’s due: 60k was reclaimed, a test was made above 62.5k, and on the ETF side we finally saw a positive day. My focus now for $BTC is in the 65k–66k zone. If Bitcoin can’t take that area, then this move will likely remain a reaction rally. Today’s direction: steady-up.
10-DAY BITCOIN ETF OUTFLOW SERIES HAS ENDED! 🎉 I think this is the most important news of today. This is the strongest daily inflow in two months. US markets are closed today due to the July 4 holiday. In crypto, weekend volatility may increase because of low liquidity. It was like that last time too. Also, now more $BTC is being held at a loss than at a profit. BTC held at a loss: 10.83 million BTC held at a profit: 9.22 million Historically, similar readings in 2018–2019 and in 2022 were seen close to the bottom regions. 🔴 What bothered me today: we got the news that whales sent 49k BTC to exchanges. This could mean potential sell-pressure. That’s why it’s crucial to see whether the 62K resistance can be broken. And here’s what we should keep in mind: the 200-week moving average is about $62,660. So 62K above is good, but it’s early to say “we’re relieved” without breaking the 62.6k–63k zone.
Today Bitcoin finally took a breath. 🎉🥳 While 58K was being discussed, $BTC moved above 61K. Here’s why: US employment data came in weak, bond yields fell, and the likelihood of the Fed raising rates decreased. Weak employment data is positive for BTC in the short term, because the market is reading it as “the Fed may not be in a rush to hike rates.” By September, the probability of a rate hike after the data dropped from about 65% to 50%. The market no longer expects only downside. The main scenario is a reaction at 62.5k–65k first, but the risk below 57.5k has not been fully erased. “There will be volatility in July, but short-term momentum has turned back up” 🎯 My Bitcoin outlook: As long as we stay above 60.7k, the upward reaction can continue. (Seeing a positive ETF data print will be the catalyst for this move—ATTENTION) 62.5k–63.5k becomes the target zone. 65k is the main test!
BTC and ETH monthly close: Bitcoin: $BTC closed the June month very weak. A large red monthly candle with no wicks, down 20%, and record ETF outflows show that the bears are in control. During the month, sellers did not face a serious reaction :/ Ethereum: $ETH also closed weakly. ETH is around 1.6k and Ethereum ETFs saw -$27.6 million outflows on June 30. For ETH, 1,600 is psychological support; below that, the 1,500–1,450 range comes into view.
BTC chart commentary: On the 5-minute chart, $BTC broke upward out of the consolidation around 58.5k and quickly reacted at 60.2k. In the short term, buyers have stepped in. On the 1-hour chart, the 58.2k–60.7k range is still in play. The RSI is around 69, meaning it’s warmed up a bit in the short term. If 60.7k is broken, the squeeze effect could test above 62k. On the daily chart, the picture is still weak: this is a relief rally, not a trend reversal.
Bitcoin reacted upward to around 60k after slipping below 58k today. We can interpret it as relief following weak data. ADP employment came in weak, ISM manufacturing was reported below expectations, and bond yields eased. BTC investors also saw this positive signal as an opportunity and bought up to 60k. But the bigger picture is still weak: June was extremely taxing. BTC closed the month down 20%. This is BTC’s worst monthly performance since June 2022. US spot BTC ETFs saw $4.5 billion in outflows in June. IBIT alone accounted for $3.55 billion of those outflows. In ETFs, there were outflows for 9 straight days into month-end. On June 30, $BTC ETFs again saw negative inflows of -$222.6 million. On Polymarket, both seeing prices below 55k and a retest of the 65k–70k range by the end of the year are considered possible for BTC. In other words, the market may be pricing a scenario where first the 55k wick is tapped, followed by a reaction toward 65k–70k.
This week’s expectation of a decline in the market deepened. 55K is expected. For $BTC, there is fear; ETF outflows continue; the Strategy side is creating pressure in the market, and other investment instruments are pulling liquidity out of crypto. If 58K breaks, it seems like 55K will follow. Even below 55K, a structural support zone between 54K and 51K is being discussed. BUT in such scenarios, the likelihood of a short squeeze increases! Of course, this doesn’t provide a sustainable long-term uptrend.
This week $BTC fell as low as 58k, then rebounded toward 60k. But the real question is: who is buying in this drop, and who is selling? The ETF side gives a very clear answer: institutional money doesn’t seem to be acting like it’s buying the dip right now—it seems to be reducing risk. The outflows in recent days have been very harsh.
There’s also Strategy stock. In the past, the market used to think, “Saylor will buy again and move Bitcoin.” Now, Strategy’s market value has fallen below the value of its BTC holdings. I think this is an important psychological break. In other words, we’re no longer only watching the Bitcoin chart—we’re also watching whether the big narratives that carry Bitcoin are weakening.
As for Monday… In the past few weeks, we’ve seen “green Mondays,” only to get sold off afterward. So if BTC opens green on Monday again, we shouldn’t get too excited right away. The real question will be: this time, can it stay above 60k? Can it continue up to 62,500? Or will we see the same thing as at the beginning of the week—a reaction on Monday, followed by selling during the week?
There’s also Strategy stock. In the past, the market used to think, “Saylor will buy again and move Bitcoin.” Now, Strategy’s market value has fallen below the value of its BTC holdings. I think this is an important psychological break. In other words, we’re no longer only watching the Bitcoin chart—we’re also watching whether the big narratives that carry Bitcoin are weakening.
As for Monday… In the past few weeks, we’ve seen “green Mondays,” only to get sold off afterward. So if BTC opens green on Monday again, we shouldn’t get too excited right away. The real question will be: this time, can it stay above 60k? Can it continue up to 62,500? Or will we see the same thing as at the beginning of the week—a reaction on Monday, followed by selling during the week?
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