#SpaceX is reportedly set to join the Nasdaq 100 on July 7, and my first reaction wasn't excitement—it was surprise.
The IPO was only on June 12, and now it's already being added to one of the world's most-followed indexes. That's incredibly fast. It almost feels like the market was eager to find its next heavyweight.
A lot of people are already celebrating the potential inflows. The logic is simple: once a stock enters the Nasdaq 100, index funds and ETFs have to buy it. That could mean billions of dollars in passive demand.
But at the same time, those purchases aren't happening because investors suddenly believe the business is worth more. They're happening because the rules require them. That's an important difference.
The chart is interesting too. Price has been hovering around 161 for several sessions, with the moving averages almost stacked on top of each other. It feels like the market is building pressure—but no one knows which direction the breakout will go.
I'm interested, no doubt. But I'm also cautious.
On one hand, you have the buying power that comes with joining the Nasdaq 100. On the other, you're looking at a company valued at over $3 trillion while it's still posting losses. That's an unusual combination.
Maybe that's just today's market. Sometimes it's less about whether something is "fairly valued" and more about whether capital is forced to own it.
These situations often create extreme moves. Either the inflows keep pushing the price higher, or everyone sells the news once the buying is done.
For now, I'm staying patient.
I'd rather watch how the market reacts after the open than rush into a trade. Missing part of a move is easier to recover from than chasing the top and catching a falling knife.
What's your view—does Nasdaq 100 inclusion still have enough power to drive the next leg higher, or is most of the optimism already priced in?
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