Binance Square

Bluechip

image
Потвърден създател
AI Crypto Specialist AI Agents & DePIN alpha calls Market trends & trading insights Technical and on-chain analysis Daily content (X: @wachngolo)
Чест трейдър
5 години
19 Следвани
58.8K+ Последователи
69.3K+ Харесано
23.7K+ Споделено
Публикации
PINNED
·
--
I’ve been in crypto for more than 7 years...Here’s 12 brutal mistakes I made (so you don’t have to)) Lesson 1: Chasing pumps is a tax on impatience Every time I rushed into a coin just because it was pumping, I ended up losing. You’re not early. You’re someone else's exit. Lesson 2: Most coins die quietly Most tokens don’t crash — they just slowly fade away. No big news. Just less trading, fewer updates... until they’re worthless. Lesson 3: Stories beat tech I used to back projects with amazing tech. The market backed the ones with the best story. The best product doesn’t always win — the best narrative usually does. Lesson 4: Liquidity is key If you can't sell your token easily, it doesn’t matter how high it goes. It might show a 10x gain, but if you can’t cash out, it’s worthless. Liquidity = freedom. Lesson 5: Most people quit too soon Crypto messes with your emotions. People buy the top, panic sell at the bottom, and then watch the market recover without them. If you stick around, you give yourself a real chance to win. Lesson 6: Take security seriously - I’ve been SIM-swapped. - I’ve been phished. - I’ve lost wallets. Lesson 7: Don’t trade everything Sometimes, the best move is to do nothing. Holding strong projects beats chasing every pump. Traders make the exchanges rich. Patient holders build wealth. Lesson 8: Regulation is coming Governments move slow — but when they act, they hit hard. Lots of “freedom tokens” I used to hold are now banned or delisted. Plan for the future — not just for hype. Lesson 9: Communities are everything A good dev team is great. But a passionate community? That’s what makes projects last. I learned to never underestimate the power of memes and culture. Lesson 10: 100x opportunities don’t last long By the time everyone’s talking about a coin — it’s too late. Big gains come from spotting things early, then holding through the noise. There are no shortcuts. Lesson 11: Bear markets are where winners are made The best time to build and learn is when nobody else is paying attention. That’s when I made my best moves. If you're emotional, you’ll get used as someone else's exit. Lesson 12: Don’t risk everything I’ve seen people lose everything on one bad trade. No matter how sure something seems — don’t bet the house. Play the long game with money you can afford to wait on. 7 years. Countless mistakes. Hard lessons. If even one of these helps you avoid a costly mistake, then it was worth sharing. Follow for more real talk — no hype, just lessons. Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA! 📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.

I’ve been in crypto for more than 7 years...

Here’s 12 brutal mistakes I made (so you don’t have to))

Lesson 1: Chasing pumps is a tax on impatience
Every time I rushed into a coin just because it was pumping, I ended up losing.
You’re not early.
You’re someone else's exit.

Lesson 2: Most coins die quietly
Most tokens don’t crash — they just slowly fade away.
No big news. Just less trading, fewer updates... until they’re worthless.

Lesson 3: Stories beat tech
I used to back projects with amazing tech.
The market backed the ones with the best story.
The best product doesn’t always win — the best narrative usually does.

Lesson 4: Liquidity is key
If you can't sell your token easily, it doesn’t matter how high it goes.
It might show a 10x gain, but if you can’t cash out, it’s worthless.
Liquidity = freedom.

Lesson 5: Most people quit too soon
Crypto messes with your emotions.
People buy the top, panic sell at the bottom, and then watch the market recover without them.
If you stick around, you give yourself a real chance to win.

Lesson 6: Take security seriously
- I’ve been SIM-swapped.
- I’ve been phished.
- I’ve lost wallets.

Lesson 7: Don’t trade everything
Sometimes, the best move is to do nothing.
Holding strong projects beats chasing every pump.
Traders make the exchanges rich. Patient holders build wealth.

Lesson 8: Regulation is coming
Governments move slow — but when they act, they hit hard.
Lots of “freedom tokens” I used to hold are now banned or delisted.
Plan for the future — not just for hype.

Lesson 9: Communities are everything
A good dev team is great.
But a passionate community? That’s what makes projects last.
I learned to never underestimate the power of memes and culture.

Lesson 10: 100x opportunities don’t last long
By the time everyone’s talking about a coin — it’s too late.
Big gains come from spotting things early, then holding through the noise.
There are no shortcuts.

Lesson 11: Bear markets are where winners are made
The best time to build and learn is when nobody else is paying attention.
That’s when I made my best moves.
If you're emotional, you’ll get used as someone else's exit.

Lesson 12: Don’t risk everything
I’ve seen people lose everything on one bad trade.
No matter how sure something seems — don’t bet the house.
Play the long game with money you can afford to wait on.

7 years.
Countless mistakes.
Hard lessons.
If even one of these helps you avoid a costly mistake, then it was worth sharing.
Follow for more real talk — no hype, just lessons.

Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA!
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
PINNED
How Market Cap Works?Many believe the market needs trillions to get the altseason. But $SOL , $ONDO, $WIF , $MKR or any of your low-cap gems don't need new tons of millions to pump. Think a $10 coin at $10M market cap needs another $10M to hit $20? Wrong! Here's the secret I often hear from major traders that the growth of certain altcoins is impossible due to their high market cap. They often say, "It takes $N billion for the price to grow N times" about large assets like Solana. These opinions are incorrect, and I'll explain why ⇩ But first, let's clarify some concepts: Market capitalization is a metric used to estimate the total market value of a cryptocurrency asset. It is determined by two components: ➜ Asset's price ➜ Its supply Price is the point where the demand and supply curves intersect. Therefore, it is determined by both demand and supply. How most people think, even those with years of market experience: ● Example: $STRK at $1 with a 1B Supply = $1B Market Cap. "To double the price, you would need $1B in investments." This seems like a simple logic puzzle, but reality introduces a crucial factor: liquidity. Liquidity in cryptocurrencies refers to the ability to quickly exchange a cryptocurrency at its current market price without a significant loss in value. Those involved in memecoins often encounter this issue: a large market cap but zero liquidity. For trading tokens on exchanges, sufficient liquidity is essential. You can't sell more tokens than the available liquidity permits. Imagine our $STRK for $1 is listed only on 1inch, with $100M available liquidity in the $STRK - $USDC pool. We have: - Price: $1 - Market Cap: $1B - Liquidity in pair: $100M ➜ Based on the price definition, buying $50M worth of $STRK will inevitably double the token price, without needing to inject $1B. The market cap will be set at $2 billion, with only $50 million in infusions. Big players understand these mechanisms and use them in their manipulations, as I explained in my recent thread. Memcoin creators often use this strategy. Typically, most memcoins are listed on one or two decentralized exchanges with limited liquidity pools. This setup allows for significant price manipulation, creating a FOMO among investors. You don't always need multi-billion dollar investments to change the market cap or increase a token's price. Limited liquidity combined with high demand can drive prices up due to basic economic principles. Keep this in mind during your research. I hope you've found this article helpful. Follow me @Bluechip for more. Like/Share if you can #BluechipInsights

How Market Cap Works?

Many believe the market needs trillions to get the altseason.

But $SOL , $ONDO, $WIF , $MKR or any of your low-cap gems don't need new tons of millions to pump.
Think a $10 coin at $10M market cap needs another $10M to hit $20?
Wrong!
Here's the secret

I often hear from major traders that the growth of certain altcoins is impossible due to their high market cap.

They often say, "It takes $N billion for the price to grow N times" about large assets like Solana.

These opinions are incorrect, and I'll explain why ⇩
But first, let's clarify some concepts:

Market capitalization is a metric used to estimate the total market value of a cryptocurrency asset.

It is determined by two components:

➜ Asset's price
➜ Its supply

Price is the point where the demand and supply curves intersect.

Therefore, it is determined by both demand and supply.

How most people think, even those with years of market experience:

● Example:
$STRK at $1 with a 1B Supply = $1B Market Cap.
"To double the price, you would need $1B in investments."

This seems like a simple logic puzzle, but reality introduces a crucial factor: liquidity.

Liquidity in cryptocurrencies refers to the ability to quickly exchange a cryptocurrency at its current market price without a significant loss in value.

Those involved in memecoins often encounter this issue: a large market cap but zero liquidity.

For trading tokens on exchanges, sufficient liquidity is essential. You can't sell more tokens than the available liquidity permits.

Imagine our $STRK for $1 is listed only on 1inch, with $100M available liquidity in the $STRK - $USDC pool.
We have:
- Price: $1
- Market Cap: $1B
- Liquidity in pair: $100M
➜ Based on the price definition, buying $50M worth of $STRK will inevitably double the token price, without needing to inject $1B.

The market cap will be set at $2 billion, with only $50 million in infusions.
Big players understand these mechanisms and use them in their manipulations, as I explained in my recent thread.
Memcoin creators often use this strategy.

Typically, most memcoins are listed on one or two decentralized exchanges with limited liquidity pools.

This setup allows for significant price manipulation, creating a FOMO among investors.

You don't always need multi-billion dollar investments to change the market cap or increase a token's price.

Limited liquidity combined with high demand can drive prices up due to basic economic principles. Keep this in mind during your research.
I hope you've found this article helpful.
Follow me @Bluechip for more.
Like/Share if you can
#BluechipInsights
Detailed analysis
Detailed analysis
Bluechip
·
--
$54K $BTC Mispricing: Choppy Short-Term (Tied to Nasdaq), Bullish Long-Term

Bitcoin runs on two clocks: power law reversion and fast macro/liquidity moves.

Short-term macro clock:
BTC is tightly linked to risk assets right now.

30d correlation: Nasdaq +0.731, S&P +0.727, HYG +0.665, VIX +0.543.

Recency-weighted correlation confirms it: Nasdaq +0.585, S&P +0.584.

Lead/lag signal: S&P and Russell tend to lead BTC by ~1 day, HYG by ~2 days, VIX by ~3 days, Nasdaq by ~4 days, DXY by ~10 days.

What that means:
If equities/credit soften, BTC usually feels it shortly after.
Short-term direction is macro-led, not narrative-led.

Microstructure clock:
Spot: $69,318
Gamma flip: $68,692
Max gamma pin: $70,000
Put wall: $65,000
Call wall: $75,000
Net GEX: -$32M
Squeeze score: 58/100
30d realized vol: 80.2%

Gamma Expires:
15.4% gamma expires Feb 13, then 20.8% Feb 27 and 26.1% Mar 27 each expiry raises breakout odds.

What that means:
Below/around flip = choppy-to-bearish risk.
Sustained hold above $70K = cleaner path toward $75K.

Long-term valuation clock:
Power-law trend value: $122,915
Current price: $69,243
Gap: -$53,672 (-43.7%)
Z-score: -0.82 (oversold)
Mean-reversion half-life: 133 days

Projected reversion path (from 2026-02-07):
2026-06-20: ~$111,751
2026-10-31: ~$142,452
2027-03-13: ~$166,516

Most important thing right now:
Short-term = fragile and macro-dependent.
Long-term = bullish from a large valuation dislocation.

Near-term chop does not invalidate long-term repricing math.
$54K $BTC Mispricing: Choppy Short-Term (Tied to Nasdaq), Bullish Long-Term Bitcoin runs on two clocks: power law reversion and fast macro/liquidity moves. Short-term macro clock: BTC is tightly linked to risk assets right now. 30d correlation: Nasdaq +0.731, S&P +0.727, HYG +0.665, VIX +0.543. Recency-weighted correlation confirms it: Nasdaq +0.585, S&P +0.584. Lead/lag signal: S&P and Russell tend to lead BTC by ~1 day, HYG by ~2 days, VIX by ~3 days, Nasdaq by ~4 days, DXY by ~10 days. What that means: If equities/credit soften, BTC usually feels it shortly after. Short-term direction is macro-led, not narrative-led. Microstructure clock: Spot: $69,318 Gamma flip: $68,692 Max gamma pin: $70,000 Put wall: $65,000 Call wall: $75,000 Net GEX: -$32M Squeeze score: 58/100 30d realized vol: 80.2% Gamma Expires: 15.4% gamma expires Feb 13, then 20.8% Feb 27 and 26.1% Mar 27 each expiry raises breakout odds. What that means: Below/around flip = choppy-to-bearish risk. Sustained hold above $70K = cleaner path toward $75K. Long-term valuation clock: Power-law trend value: $122,915 Current price: $69,243 Gap: -$53,672 (-43.7%) Z-score: -0.82 (oversold) Mean-reversion half-life: 133 days Projected reversion path (from 2026-02-07): 2026-06-20: ~$111,751 2026-10-31: ~$142,452 2027-03-13: ~$166,516 Most important thing right now: Short-term = fragile and macro-dependent. Long-term = bullish from a large valuation dislocation. Near-term chop does not invalidate long-term repricing math.
$54K $BTC Mispricing: Choppy Short-Term (Tied to Nasdaq), Bullish Long-Term

Bitcoin runs on two clocks: power law reversion and fast macro/liquidity moves.

Short-term macro clock:
BTC is tightly linked to risk assets right now.

30d correlation: Nasdaq +0.731, S&P +0.727, HYG +0.665, VIX +0.543.

Recency-weighted correlation confirms it: Nasdaq +0.585, S&P +0.584.

Lead/lag signal: S&P and Russell tend to lead BTC by ~1 day, HYG by ~2 days, VIX by ~3 days, Nasdaq by ~4 days, DXY by ~10 days.

What that means:
If equities/credit soften, BTC usually feels it shortly after.
Short-term direction is macro-led, not narrative-led.

Microstructure clock:
Spot: $69,318
Gamma flip: $68,692
Max gamma pin: $70,000
Put wall: $65,000
Call wall: $75,000
Net GEX: -$32M
Squeeze score: 58/100
30d realized vol: 80.2%

Gamma Expires:
15.4% gamma expires Feb 13, then 20.8% Feb 27 and 26.1% Mar 27 each expiry raises breakout odds.

What that means:
Below/around flip = choppy-to-bearish risk.
Sustained hold above $70K = cleaner path toward $75K.

Long-term valuation clock:
Power-law trend value: $122,915
Current price: $69,243
Gap: -$53,672 (-43.7%)
Z-score: -0.82 (oversold)
Mean-reversion half-life: 133 days

Projected reversion path (from 2026-02-07):
2026-06-20: ~$111,751
2026-10-31: ~$142,452
2027-03-13: ~$166,516

Most important thing right now:
Short-term = fragile and macro-dependent.
Long-term = bullish from a large valuation dislocation.

Near-term chop does not invalidate long-term repricing math.
Bluechip
·
--
Бичи
Your welcome.

I have just saved you all. $BTC
The Liquidity Earthquake: Is the era of “American Exceptionalism” coming to an end? Numbers don’t lie. And what’s happening behind the scenes on Wall Street suggests we’re witnessing one of the largest liquidity rotations in years. Bank of America’s latest report shows $1.5 billion in outflows from crypto funds in a single week the largest since last November. But the real story isn’t crypto itself. It’s the pattern of where money is moving now. Clear inflection signals From spending to benefiting: Capital is rotating out of companies that are spending heavily on AI and into those that are actually monetizing AI through manufacturing and services. The end of solo dominance: Wall Street is quietly shifting away from the idea of US Exceptionalism toward a global rebalancing, which helps explain the recent strength in emerging markets we discussed earlier. The search for “peak yield”: Money is fleeing loss-making bonds and rotating into sectors like REITs, which tend to benefit most when yields peak. The real risk behind the curtain The most important warning in Michael Hartnett’s report is the growing K-shaped economy: wealth at the top continues to rise while payroll growth weakens. This divergence raises the risk of a collapse in US Treasury yields a scenario that would completely reshuffle the market landscape. Bottom line Markets are now separating signal from noise. Smart liquidity is starting to realize that: overvalued growth assets and full dependence on tech alone are no longer enough. Balance will be the dominant theme in 2026. Dear investor, is your portfolio built to withstand a global rebalancing or is it still betting on a single horse that’s starting to tire? For a deeper dive into fund flows and capital movements… $BTC
The Liquidity Earthquake: Is the era of “American Exceptionalism” coming to an end?

Numbers don’t lie. And what’s happening behind the scenes on Wall Street suggests we’re witnessing one of the largest liquidity rotations in years.

Bank of America’s latest report shows $1.5 billion in outflows from crypto funds in a single week the largest since last November.

But the real story isn’t crypto itself. It’s the pattern of where money is moving now.

Clear inflection signals

From spending to benefiting: Capital is rotating out of companies that are spending heavily on AI and into those that are actually monetizing AI through manufacturing and services.

The end of solo dominance: Wall Street is quietly shifting away from the idea of US Exceptionalism toward a global rebalancing, which helps explain the recent strength in emerging markets we discussed earlier.

The search for “peak yield”: Money is fleeing loss-making bonds and rotating into sectors like REITs, which tend to benefit most when yields peak.

The real risk behind the curtain

The most important warning in Michael Hartnett’s report is the growing K-shaped economy: wealth at the top continues to rise while payroll growth weakens.

This divergence raises the risk of a collapse in US Treasury yields a scenario that would completely reshuffle the market landscape.

Bottom line
Markets are now separating signal from noise.

Smart liquidity is starting to realize that: overvalued growth assets and full dependence on tech alone are no longer enough.

Balance will be the dominant theme in 2026.

Dear investor, is your portfolio built to withstand a global rebalancing or is it still betting on a single horse that’s starting to tire?

For a deeper dive into fund flows and capital movements…
$BTC
What can I say....🤷‍♂️ $BTC
What can I say....🤷‍♂️

$BTC
Bluechip
·
--
$BTC

People want to believe otherwise but the simulation will repeat itself.
Data from multiple major exchanges show abnormal price fluctuations in $BTC and $ETH between 00:05 and 00:17 today, with peak-to-trough moves of approximately 1%–5%. The market speculates that the move may be related to irregular grid-trading activity by some market makers.
Data from multiple major exchanges show abnormal price fluctuations in $BTC and $ETH between 00:05 and 00:17 today, with peak-to-trough moves of approximately 1%–5%. The market speculates that the move may be related to irregular grid-trading activity by some market makers.
We also have an additional pivot on the 11th. Over the past 11 months, 7 of these pivots led to a drop of more than 8% within the following 2 weeks. The remaining 4 resulted in continuation to the upside. However, those upside continuations only occurred after a major sell off or when market structure was clearly bearish heading into the pivot. That’s why how $BTC approaches this level matters. Whether we see a pump or a dump into the area will be key in determining the higher probability scenario.
We also have an additional pivot on the 11th.

Over the past 11 months, 7 of these pivots led to a drop of more than 8% within the following 2 weeks.

The remaining 4 resulted in continuation to the upside.

However, those upside continuations only occurred after a major sell off or when market structure was clearly bearish heading into the pivot.

That’s why how $BTC approaches this level matters. Whether we see a pump or a dump into the area will be key in determining the higher probability scenario.
$BTC The infamous 14th is approaching. Over the last 7 months, this pivot has produced an average 8% drop afterwards. If price is pushing up into it, I’ll be hunting shorts. If we’re already dumping into the pivot, I’ll observe.
$BTC

The infamous 14th is approaching.

Over the last 7 months, this pivot has produced an average 8% drop afterwards.

If price is pushing up into it, I’ll be hunting shorts.

If we’re already dumping into the pivot, I’ll observe.
You were warned… 121.3K was my prediction for the $BTC top. Only a few % off.
You were warned…

121.3K was my prediction for the $BTC top.

Only a few % off.
Bluechip
·
--
The $BTC bull market top.

BTC nears logarithmic cycle apex, indicating the top is near.

Do not be exit liquidity. It is not worth chasing 10%.

It was fun.
Dissecting the “Structural Breakdown”: What’s really happening in the Bitcoin market?Markets don’t always move on logic they move on nerves. What we’re witnessing today in crypto isn’t just a routine correction or a normal sell-off. We’re looking at a structural liquidity unwind that effectively began on October 6, when total market cap peaked around $4.3 trillion. Since then, the market has been bleeding quietly shedding more than $2.2 trillion in total value. But the question everyone is asking in disbelief: Why is the market collapsing while the fundamentals haven’t changed? 1) The election rally trap vs. harsh reality Bitcoin has now erased all the gains made after Trump’s victory and is trading 10% below election-day levels. The truth is simple: markets had overpriced optimism. With the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed, investors are starting to realize that the era of easy money may not return as quickly as expected and that Fed balance-sheet contraction remains the number one enemy of high-risk assets. 2) October 10th: an earthquake that never healed On October 10, the market experienced a historic $19.5 billion liquidation in a single day. This wasn’t just a loss for overleveraged traders it was a fracture in the market’s backbone: market depth. Since that day, crypto has become a thin market, where a single large sell order from an institution or a whale can move prices thousands of dollars within minutes. That fragility is exactly what we’ve been seeing through recent price gaps. 3) Contagion risk: crypto is no longer an isolated island The real danger lies in liquidation pressure spreading from crypto into mega-cap tech stocks. When institutions are forced to cover crypto losses, they sell liquid assets like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google. This creates a vicious cycle: crypto liquidations--> equity selling--> weaker sentiment--> more crypto selling. 4) Sentiment: the true ruler of markets The Fear & Greed Index has collapsed into single-digit fear. Past crypto cycles taught us one thing: sentiment is everything. When conviction breaks, markets don’t care about network strength or institutional adoption they care about exiting with minimal damage. Conclusion & outlook We are approaching a capitulation zone. Historically, true bottoms only form when: the number of winning coins equals the number of losing onesand leverage is fully flushed from the system What’s happening now is a painful but necessary cleansing process. A bottom isn’t a price it’s a state of collective despair and the restoration of structural liquidity. Until that happens, volatility will remain dominant. The difference between a smart investor and a panicked speculator is the ability to distinguish between: a price collapse and a value collapse. So what do you think are we approaching a historic re-positioning opportunity, or will this “winter” last far longer than most expect? Share your view in the comments. $BTC

Dissecting the “Structural Breakdown”: What’s really happening in the Bitcoin market?

Markets don’t always move on logic they move on nerves.
What we’re witnessing today in crypto isn’t just a routine correction or a normal sell-off. We’re looking at a structural liquidity unwind that effectively began on October 6, when total market cap peaked around $4.3 trillion.
Since then, the market has been bleeding quietly shedding more than $2.2 trillion in total value.

But the question everyone is asking in disbelief:
Why is the market collapsing while the fundamentals haven’t changed?
1) The election rally trap vs. harsh reality
Bitcoin has now erased all the gains made after Trump’s victory and is trading 10% below election-day levels.
The truth is simple: markets had overpriced optimism.
With the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed, investors are starting to realize that the era of easy money may not return as quickly as expected and that Fed balance-sheet contraction remains the number one enemy of high-risk assets.
2) October 10th: an earthquake that never healed
On October 10, the market experienced a historic $19.5 billion liquidation in a single day.
This wasn’t just a loss for overleveraged traders it was a fracture in the market’s backbone: market depth.
Since that day, crypto has become a thin market, where a single large sell order from an institution or a whale can move prices thousands of dollars within minutes.
That fragility is exactly what we’ve been seeing through recent price gaps.
3) Contagion risk: crypto is no longer an isolated island
The real danger lies in liquidation pressure spreading from crypto into mega-cap tech stocks.
When institutions are forced to cover crypto losses, they sell liquid assets like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google.
This creates a vicious cycle:
crypto liquidations--> equity selling--> weaker sentiment--> more crypto selling.
4) Sentiment: the true ruler of markets
The Fear & Greed Index has collapsed into single-digit fear.
Past crypto cycles taught us one thing: sentiment is everything.
When conviction breaks, markets don’t care about network strength or institutional adoption they care about exiting with minimal damage.
Conclusion & outlook
We are approaching a capitulation zone.
Historically, true bottoms only form when:
the number of winning coins equals the number of losing onesand leverage is fully flushed from the system
What’s happening now is a painful but necessary cleansing process.
A bottom isn’t a price it’s a state of collective despair and the restoration of structural liquidity.
Until that happens, volatility will remain dominant.
The difference between a smart investor and a panicked speculator is the ability to distinguish between:

a price collapse
and
a value collapse.
So what do you think are we approaching a historic re-positioning opportunity,
or will this “winter” last far longer than most expect?
Share your view in the comments.
$BTC
$BTC Quite the huge stack of liquidity at 71.5-74K. It makes sense to grab considering the current sentiment. If I had to guess, I’d expect a new range to form around 58–72, similar to what we saw previously.
$BTC

Quite the huge stack of liquidity at 71.5-74K.

It makes sense to grab considering the current sentiment.

If I had to guess, I’d expect a new range to form around 58–72, similar to what we saw previously.
$BTC Not much movement so far. Weekend CME closed at 70.2K. As always, I look for 1–2K gaps and aim to target them on Monday if the structure supports it.
$BTC

Not much movement so far. Weekend CME closed at 70.2K.

As always, I look for 1–2K gaps and aim to target them on Monday if the structure supports it.
$BTC 3 bids have been filled so far. I’m still expecting lower levels, but first we were due for a bounce, and that’s what we’re seeing now. The move from 95K down to 59.8K without any meaningful bounce was pretty brutal. From these lows, I see a potential push toward 72–76K at most before we likely move into a range for a while.
$BTC

3 bids have been filled so far. I’m still expecting lower levels, but first we were due for a bounce, and that’s what we’re seeing now.

The move from 95K down to 59.8K without any meaningful bounce was pretty brutal.

From these lows, I see a potential push toward 72–76K at most before we likely move into a range for a while.
Bluechip
·
--
After careful consideration, I’ve decided to begin gradually buying spot $BTC at $70.2K, moving my first entry higher. My next entry will be sub-69K.

We’re currently -43% off the highs. I’m fully aware we could extend to -65% to -70%, and I honestly don’t care. That is what DCAing is for.

If we mimic prior cycle retracements, the maximum downside extension lands around $40–45K. I never try to time the exact bottom. My goal is simply to ride the wave when sentiment shifts.

I’ll address leveraged long positions in a separate post, but for now I wanted to be transparent:

I’m buying my first batch of spot BTC here, fully expecting lower prices ahead.

A retrace back to the current ATH represents roughly 75% upside, which could realistically play out over 2–3 years. By comparison, the S&P 500 averages -10% annually, about 30% over 3 years. Even if this first entry is early, I’m still materially outperforming legacy assets, which is why my RR has shifted.

Everything I do is public and transparent. I know this may be early, and I personally expect lower levels, but historically, I am always a buyer once price retraces more than 40% from ATH.

That hasn’t changed. We can trend lower for the next 3–6 months, but eventually the cycle will change. I don’t mind scaling in sooner rather than later, even if it means enduring temporary drawdowns in the process.

Risk isn’t avoiding volatility, it’s missing the move.
I’ve already talked about this extensivelyAnd I remain convinced that many people are still underestimating the real financial stakes of AI. But over the past few days, a misunderstanding keeps coming back: 👉 markets are not rejecting AI, 👉 they are changing the angle of analysis. In the first phase of the cycle, the logic was simple: the more a company announced massive investments in AI, the more it was seen as securing its future and therefore the higher its valuation should go. Except markets don’t value technological promises; they value discounted future cash flows. And when you look coldly at what an explosion in CAPEX actually implies, recent market behavior becomes far less counter intuitive. 1--> First point: the CAPEX shock When Microsoft, Google, Amazon, or Meta each announce hundreds of billions of dollars in investments in data centers, GPUs, networks, cooling systems, and power infrastructure, it means one very concrete thing: 👉 cash going out now. Even if these expenses may create enormous value in 5 or 10 years, they mechanically weigh on free cash flow today. And for equities, what matters isn’t just future growth, but the path to get there. If the market starts to price in several years of flat or even declining FCF, current valuations must adjust. 2--> A more subtle layer: doubts about AI’s marginal return on capital At the beginning of a tech cycle, every invested dollar looks magical. Then the real question emerges: 👉 does dollar number 101 generate the same return as dollar number 1? Today, many AI tools are being integrated into existing products, often without dramatic price increases. Competition among hyperscalers is intense, and open source is advancing rapidly. Result: the market is starting to question whether AI revenues will actually grow faster than the costs associated with them. 3--> Third key element: fear of commoditization Economic history is clear: highly capital intensive industries often end up generating huge volumes but average margins. Building the infrastructure doesn’t automatically mean capturing all the value. Telecoms are the perfect example. If AI becomes a standardized infrastructure layer, part of the application ecosystem could see margins capped. 👉 Owning the highway doesn’t guarantee collecting all the tolls. 4--> Market mechanics also matter The MAG7 have become ultra-consensus positions. It only takes a slight shift in narrative to trigger profit-taking and sector rotations. And of course, interest rates matter: as long as real rates remain high or cuts are pushed back, distant cash flows are mathematically worth less today putting direct pressure on valuation multiples. Financing becomes the central issue Some big tech companies still generate massive cash flows and can finance part of their investments internally. But even then, financing is never free. Every dollar invested in a data center is a dollar not allocated to: • buybacks • dividends • debt reduction • or acquisitions Add to this a much higher cost of debt: to create value today, a project must deliver returns well above a cost of capital that has become far more demanding. Projects that looked excellent five years ago can become mediocre in this new regime. At the macro level The cumulative effect of all this CAPEX also creates systemic tensions: strong demand for corporate debt, pressure on energy, semiconductors, and equipment. This dynamic pushes costs higher and raises the required breakeven point even further. We enter a loop where the marginal cost of each invested dollar keeps increasing. Markets are selling the MAG7 today not because AI is being questioned, but because this level of CAPEX now raises real questions. We are moving from the narrative: AI = unlimited growth to a far more mature one: 👉 who actually makes money, 👉 how much, 👉 and with what return on capital. This transition is always uncomfortable in markets, even when the technology remains deeply transformative. In markets, almost everything can be forgiven… except when promises stop turning into cash. $BTC

I’ve already talked about this extensively

And I remain convinced that many people are still underestimating the real financial stakes of AI.
But over the past few days, a misunderstanding keeps coming back:
👉 markets are not rejecting AI,
👉 they are changing the angle of analysis.
In the first phase of the cycle, the logic was simple:
the more a company announced massive investments in AI, the more it was seen as securing its future and therefore the higher its valuation should go.
Except markets don’t value technological promises; they value discounted future cash flows.
And when you look coldly at what an explosion in CAPEX actually implies, recent market behavior becomes far less counter intuitive.
1--> First point: the CAPEX shock
When Microsoft, Google, Amazon, or Meta each announce hundreds of billions of dollars in investments in data centers, GPUs, networks, cooling systems, and power infrastructure, it means one very concrete thing:
👉 cash going out now.
Even if these expenses may create enormous value in 5 or 10 years, they mechanically weigh on free cash flow today.
And for equities, what matters isn’t just future growth, but the path to get there.
If the market starts to price in several years of flat or even declining FCF, current valuations must adjust.
2--> A more subtle layer: doubts about AI’s marginal return on capital
At the beginning of a tech cycle, every invested dollar looks magical.
Then the real question emerges:
👉 does dollar number 101 generate the same return as dollar number 1?
Today, many AI tools are being integrated into existing products, often without dramatic price increases.
Competition among hyperscalers is intense, and open source is advancing rapidly.
Result: the market is starting to question whether AI revenues will actually grow faster than the costs associated with them.
3--> Third key element: fear of commoditization
Economic history is clear:
highly capital intensive industries often end up generating huge volumes but average margins.
Building the infrastructure doesn’t automatically mean capturing all the value.
Telecoms are the perfect example.
If AI becomes a standardized infrastructure layer, part of the application ecosystem could see margins capped.
👉 Owning the highway doesn’t guarantee collecting all the tolls.
4--> Market mechanics also matter
The MAG7 have become ultra-consensus positions.
It only takes a slight shift in narrative to trigger profit-taking and sector rotations.
And of course, interest rates matter:
as long as real rates remain high or cuts are pushed back, distant cash flows are mathematically worth less today putting direct pressure on valuation multiples.
Financing becomes the central issue
Some big tech companies still generate massive cash flows and can finance part of their investments internally.
But even then, financing is never free.
Every dollar invested in a data center is a dollar not allocated to:
• buybacks
• dividends
• debt reduction
• or acquisitions
Add to this a much higher cost of debt:
to create value today, a project must deliver returns well above a cost of capital that has become far more demanding.
Projects that looked excellent five years ago can become mediocre in this new regime.
At the macro level
The cumulative effect of all this CAPEX also creates systemic tensions:
strong demand for corporate debt, pressure on energy, semiconductors, and equipment.
This dynamic pushes costs higher and raises the required breakeven point even further.
We enter a loop where the marginal cost of each invested dollar keeps increasing.
Markets are selling the MAG7 today not because AI is being questioned, but because this level of CAPEX now raises real questions.
We are moving from the narrative:
AI = unlimited growth
to a far more mature one:
👉 who actually makes money,
👉 how much,
👉 and with what return on capital.
This transition is always uncomfortable in markets, even when the technology remains deeply transformative.
In markets, almost everything can be forgiven… except when promises stop turning into cash.
$BTC
$BTC Honestly, you just have to laugh at this point. You’d think people would learn by now, but apparently not. This entire move up has been largely short driven, with funding sitting around -0.02 during the rally. That tells you a lot. As shorts close and price pushes higher, the move can continue squeezing. But if the capitulation runs out and there’s no sustained spot demand underneath it, price likely rolls over on the LTFs.
$BTC

Honestly, you just have to laugh at this point. You’d think people would learn by now, but apparently not.

This entire move up has been largely short driven, with funding sitting around -0.02 during the rally. That tells you a lot.

As shorts close and price pushes higher, the move can continue squeezing. But if the capitulation runs out and there’s no sustained spot demand underneath it, price likely rolls over on the LTFs.
$BTC Strong reaction so far off the 60K range lows. This area marked the bottom of the previous 6 month accumulation range (We held this area multiple times) The key zone to watch now is the 70–76K range, the prior S/R and the point where price would re-accept into the previous range. Bottoms rarely form in a straight V-shaped recovery, so if we see rejection from this box, there’s a high probability of renewed acceptance lower and a move back down. That said, I’m not bearish, as I’ve mentioned before. This is simply an objective read on market structure. Use the LTF to navigate accordingly.
$BTC

Strong reaction so far off the 60K range lows. This area marked the bottom of the previous 6 month accumulation range (We held this area multiple times)

The key zone to watch now is the 70–76K range, the prior S/R and the point where price would re-accept into the previous range.

Bottoms rarely form in a straight V-shaped recovery, so if we see rejection from this box, there’s a high probability of renewed acceptance lower and a move back down.

That said, I’m not bearish, as I’ve mentioned before. This is simply an objective read on market structure. Use the LTF to navigate accordingly.
Great news Jim Cramer (the inverse indicator) just said: “Something is seriously wrong with Bitcoin… people need to get out.” Looks like the bounce is happening Thanks, Jim 🤣
Great news

Jim Cramer (the inverse indicator) just said:
“Something is seriously wrong with Bitcoin…
people need to get out.”

Looks like the bounce is happening
Thanks, Jim 🤣
BREAKING: Micheal Saylor's $MSTR just pumped 31% from yesterday’s lows in 16 hours, adding nearly $9.96B to its market cap. They are now sitting at $3.93 billion in unrealized loss on their Bitcoin position.
BREAKING: Micheal Saylor's $MSTR just pumped 31% from yesterday’s lows in 16 hours, adding nearly $9.96B to its market cap.

They are now sitting at $3.93 billion in unrealized loss on their Bitcoin position.
BREAKING: Over $304 billion has been added to the crypto market in the last 20 hours. Bitcoin is up 17% and has pumped $10,000 from its lows, reclaiming $70,000. ETH surged 18% and reclaimed $2,000 from lows of $1,750. $550 million in shorts were liquidated.
BREAKING: Over $304 billion has been added to the crypto market in the last 20 hours.

Bitcoin is up 17% and has pumped $10,000 from its lows, reclaiming $70,000.

ETH surged 18% and reclaimed $2,000 from lows of $1,750.

$550 million in shorts were liquidated.
Bluechip
·
--
$BTC
Влезте, за да разгледате още съдържание
Разгледайте най-новите крипто новини
⚡️ Бъдете част от най-новите дискусии в криптовалутното пространство
💬 Взаимодействайте с любимите си създатели
👍 Насладете се на съдържание, което ви интересува
Имейл/телефонен номер
Карта на сайта
Предпочитания за бисквитки
Правила и условия на платформата