Extracting truly useful information from countless information is the key to getting rich.
For example, area 1: learning is superficial.
Every day I hang out in various WeChat groups, Twitter, and Telegram groups, listening to other people's opinions and reading things that are repeated by the crowd. I lack my own thinking and judgment and fall into a vicious circle involving myself.
Usually, deep learning is a must in the cryptocurrency circle. What is deep learning? For example, if you are talking about a project, you must become an expert in this project and know more about it than others. When you see anyone's research report or opinions on this project, you can tell at a glance whether it is right or correct, good or bad.
Note: Being able to research and being able to invest are indeed two different things, and being able to invest and being able to make money are even different things.
I studied the project very early, but by the time I had some investment systems I had already suffered big losses several times, and it was even later before I could make money.
Misconception 2: Stroke the hair aimlessly.
There are countless information in front of the Mao Party. No matter whether it is big or small, they would rather kill the wrong one than let it go. They are always rushing from morning to night every day - this is hard-earned money and it is great, but in fact, this may very likely miss the real dividends of the development of the currency circle.
Because the practice of making money by making a profit is not something that has always existed in the past, but is a natural result of the evolution of the gameplay in the cryptocurrency circle - from UNI to the national airdrop to ARB's more than ten scoring standards, to various tasks and points PUA such as Odyssey, this gameplay has not existed since ancient times and will not always exist.
If you only focus on rushing in without doing enough research, you will get involved in a lot of useless things and waste a lot of time. In addition, if your investment research capabilities are not improved and your investment system is flat, you will miss a lot of opportunities.
The advantage, of course, is stability—at least still.
So back to the topic: What is high-value information? And how to find and use this information?
1. What is high-value information?
For high-value information in the cryptocurrency circle, I will set a relatively quick-success standard: information that can help us make money!
Making money is a somewhat low standard, but whether it is a large institution or a small retail investor, whether it is idealism or realism, there is no shame in making legitimate money.
If the information is right, it should help us make money.
1. Everyone has different sensitivity to information, and it is difficult to replicate
First of all, it must be emphasized that different people receive the same information completely differently. There is no way to change this except through practice.
This section attempts to provide some simple concepts through some examples and then define what high-value information is.
Here are some examples from my own experience. You can compare them to others. Given the same information, how would you judge it? How would you act? This information is public and can be seen by many people, but the actions may be completely different:
$AIDOGE
When I saw it, the market value was 5 million. A few weeks after I bought it, its market value reached more than 200 million, about dozens of times higher.
So why did I include it in the "One Day of Charity Donation"? Why do I think it is worth buying? You should know that there are countless MEME coins on the Internet every day, and you will see some local dog communities posting the one worth paying attention to today every day.
However, how many people have caught this $AIDOGE, the second big golden dog in the meme this year? How much position will those who rush every day have? How long will they run? In fact, there is a high probability that they will be numb and earn only a few cents every day.
If you have made up your mind but are not brave enough to take on the opportunity, and you hold a large position, it will be of no use.
PS: The Golden Dogs mentioned above: based on the standard of rising to a market value of more than 100 million, the first one is BONK, and AIDOGE is the second one.
The judgment criteria at that time were: this MEME coin was issued on ARB, which was quite popular at the time, and the economic model of this MEME coin had a lot of innovations, including a 15% tax, the tax was used to do one thing, etc. It was a naked Ponzi model, which would be easily and quickly transplanted as long as the market FOMO.
Judging from the market conditions at the time, the market sentiment had been hurt by some mainstream coins and king coins. The model of this MEME coin is different from other "useless" coins, and you can see its specialness at a glance.
I issued the pepe coin and AIDOGE on Wednesday. At that time, the total market value of PEPE was only 10 million, but it has actually increased by dozens of times.
Why is this coin attracting attention again?
Because Aidoge follows any Ponzi model that is extremely complex, and PEPE is just right, with 0 taxes, 0 industry, and only the narrative of the PEPE meme, without the Ponzi routine, transcending extreme complexity and being the simplest at the peak (all of this was written on Twitter at the time).
But the question is: why is this the project with 0 tax and 0 construction volume?
First, the meme is contagious enough. Secondly, looking at the size of the on-chain pool, transaction rate, turnover, Twitter popularity, etc., we can also see that it has a vitality that is obviously different from other local dogs.
So, you see, one is because the model is complex, and the other is because the model is simple. There are no advance scores to follow. You have to have the highlights of the discovery and be diligent to see opportunities in time.
$ORDI
When did you notice it? I started to count the ecology on March 9th, and started to read relevant articles every day in late April, and I felt that the market was paying attention to this.
Moreover, the MEME narrative on Bitcoin is powerful enough, more powerful than anything else. Just look at its market value and you will know whether you can buy it.
The first MEME on the Bitcoin chain has a market value of half of the MEME of the AIDOGE wave. Isn’t that an exaggeration?
The above content may seem a bit mysterious, and I hope I have not made it clear how to discover new projects. In fact, this requires a lot of dedicated funds and long-term learning. There is no quick way, and everyone has different perspectives and views.
What’s more important is that the market is ever-changing, and I really have no way to tell you what kind of opportunity is a good opportunity - I just feel that some of me are confident in seizing opportunities. I don’t know what the next opportunity will be, but I just know that I can discover it earlier than others and judge it more accurately.
2. Characteristics of high-value information
1. High-value information must include opinions, attitudes, data, research, etc.
Since there is so much information, it is best for us to efficiently obtain information from the media, KOLs, research reports, etc., and try to keep the information source so that we can directly see the data, viewing points, attitudes, etc.
On the contrary, if a piece of information only has an attitude or opinion but no data or logical support, it may generally be of low value - but not absolutely, because many KOLs just share useful information out of love, but because they are afraid of being scolded, they only give some minimal information, which requires comprehensive judgment.
Positive examples:
——I am optimistic about XX because it can provide multiple dimensions of answers.
——It is worth paying special attention to XX at present, because XX
——XX in-depth research report
Note: Most of this high-value information still cannot directly help make money, especially some institutional research reports, which are seriously delayed. At the same time, some researchers write research reports just to research projects, and do not involve buying and selling. Therefore, they tend to conduct investigations and research clearly - rather than mature investors who interpret some institutions writing about a project as "they are optimistic and can buy now", which is very wrong.
High-value information should provide information while helping us save a lot of research time.
Bad example:
——Bitcoin has just rebounded, and I am firmly bearish. (Market Forecast)
——XX coin can be bought now, it has fallen to the bottom. (Market Forecast)
——I will start investing in XX from now on. (Only attitude)
——The current market is suppressed by the United States, and the risks are seriously relieved; but EDX and other indicators show that institutions are entering the market, and the overall outlook is bullish. Secondly, it is recommended to make plans before taking action, pay attention to risks, and do not miss opportunities. (A lot of empty talk is meaningless)
2. High-value information is not necessarily directly related to the code of wealth
High-value content may often be presented in the form of chicken soup or simple logic, or a very specific thinking framework, investment logic, etc. It does not necessarily directly involve the buying and selling of a certain project.
It may involve investment logic, investment cognition, etc.
But these articles are all other people's opinions. What is important is to learn other people's thinking and frameworks in operation, and accumulate your own experience from other people's success.
However, as a reader, first of all, do not be superstitious about any so-called framework, because anyone's thinking may be flawed or imperfect. Even if it tends to be perfect, the external environment is always changing, just like us in the cryptocurrency circle, there is no one-size-fits-all trick.
UNI, DOT and other unempowered air coins were the protagonists of the last bull market.
But ARB and OP are coming up with a new way of playing things, and the market is not willing to buy into it, at least that’s the case for now.
Many teams became rich in 2022. Now in June 2023, some people are still rushing in to set up studios, but in fact the wealth effect of this event will soon disappear. The reason is very simple. There are very few new projects like ARB, and there are more and more freeloaders entering the market. This is not a good thing for the project owners and VCs. It is foreseeable that it will be like NFT freeloading, and it is impossible to continue forever.
So, the key is to find something valuable in the success of others.
This so-called opportunity is meaningless when there are many opportunities, because as mentioned before, the source of information is not only the recording results, but more importantly the process, why did you play? How many times did you play? How much did you earn?
If you just randomly rush in, some of them will increase, but the total transaction volume may be only 20 ETH, which actually doesn’t make any sense.
—— Negative Example 2: "Trading is nothing more than buying low and selling high. It sounds simple, but to achieve it requires self-cultivation. Trading is a psychological game." (The content is mysterious and empty, with no guiding significance. Sincerity is the key to success)
3. High-value information often comes only from the winners in the market
In fact, it is far better to define what is high-value information based on some performance phenomena than to judge from the information provider.
For example, when we are browsing Twitter, it is easy to see a person’s past speeches, his or her reputation and fame in the industry, etc., to comprehensively judge the other person’s true strength.
Although defining a person by results is a bit utilitarian, it can generally help us save some time.
But it should be noted that, as mentioned earlier, investment research ability does not equal the ability to make money. Everyone is good at different things, and when we pay attention to KOLs or information sources, we should pay attention to what they are good at.
Translation:
——When reading some macro bloggers, such as what Phyrex_Ni writes, he mainly analyzes macro information, but in fact he doesn’t play much at the second level, and he doesn’t know how to open a contract. In that case, don’t use some information to open one because the impact of the macro is inherently slow and complicated.
——When looking at some cryptocurrency OGs, in addition to thinking about the framework, you still have to invest yourself
2. How to find high-value information?
The focus is on optimizing the information flow, which can be divided into several categories of input:
1. Public research reports.
Many institutions in the cryptocurrency circle, such as De Capital and Mint Ventures, do not charge for their research reports, because they are mainly driven by investment research. At the same time, they also hope that a certain amount of programming can help the public understand the projects and do user education, etc. As the saying goes, good wine needs no bush.
At the same time, various media and MIRROR occasionally have high-quality projects.
2. Aggregation of high-quality information
A daily must-read content that I carefully select from the entire Internet. Every article in it is one that I have read carefully and think is valuable - that is, it can help you make money, so I put it up. A certain level of programming skills can help many people save a lot of time.
I spend an average of 2-6 hours a day doing this, and it helps me personally to read and sift through the information.
3. High-quality KOL
It is not necessary to go straight for KOLs who make money. There are also many types of tables, macro, data, etc. As long as they can provide useful information, they are all high-quality sources.
But be more insightful about those who often give negative feedback, belittle others and exalt themselves. Investing is similar to being a human being. Investing should be an upright and aboveboard path. People with bad or even inferior conduct cannot invest. People who make money have a good mentality and a broad vision.
Try not to involve yourself in all that boring emotional garbage.
For example, on some domestic news platforms, Douyin, Weibo, etc., what you see every day are some "not-so-interesting garbage things", which greatly distract your attention and waste your time.
It's the same everywhere, we try to take investing more seriously and not focus our precious attention on useless things.
No matter who you are or what you are doing, just focus on whether it can be of any help to you, and what kind of help it can be.
The high-quality KOL here is not recommended
3. How to use high-value information?
From "knowing" to "realizing", there are 10 losses in between.
When you think you understand a project, you place a bet or even a heavy bet (the more you understand, the easier it is to place a heavy bet and not leave when you are stuck). If you are right, it means you have read everything correctly. If you lose money, it means there must be a blind spot. Every blind spot in knowledge may be the reason for recovery later.
For example, top investment institutions, including Paradigm, Multicoin Capital, etc., have the best researchers and investors, and they also have advantages in investment position. Does that mean they will definitely make money?
Multicoin Capital was the most prominent institution in the last bull market. Its highlight was that it had the highest returns among all institutions, but it also suffered the most severe losses in the bear market. I remember that its assets shrank by more than 90%.
They established an investment logic at the beginning: the cryptocurrency circle needs ETH's high-performance public chain.
So they initially invested heavily in EOS, but ended up losing a lot of money and nearly going bankrupt. But they stuck to this investment logic, learned from their failed investment experience in EOS, and finally bet on SOL again, earning a 10,000-fold return.
As a result, in this round of bear market, LUNA, Three Arrows, FTX, and SOL all stepped on big mines and suffered heavy losses.
What revelation is there?
To this end, we motivate our investment logic and pay for the logic.
Second, investment is a long-distance race, not a game of guessing heads or tails. Don’t treat the other person as a god just because he guessed right 10 times, and don’t treat the other person as a dog just because he guessed wrong once. The key is still what I said before, to establish your own investment logic, and make comprehensive judgments and integrate various information based on logic.
Third, you can’t learn to swim without getting in the water. Investment is about results. Talking on paper and watching the fire from the other side of the river, Buffett’s investment is not appreciated by a minority of people. Everything Jack Ma does is guided by people who are smarter than him.
Things in the world are easier said than done. Try more on your own. If you fail, don't give up. Figure out why you failed. If you succeed, don't be proud. Think about how much luck played a role in it.
So the key to using high-value information is nothing more than gravity:
First, combine the previous judgment methods and information sources to receive high-quality information as needed.
The second is to practice in practice. No matter the size of your position, go to the market to test and constantly correct your logic.
For example, when it reaches 1 million for the first time, or 10 million for the first time, it will be very easy to have a high pullback!