Although various onchain cycle indicators show that it has already exited the oversold phase and is in the recovery phase, it seems that it will take some more time to reach the bull market phase. The reason is that the BTC holdings of whale investors are not increasing. Bitcoin: UTXO Value Bands shows the number of BTC holdings by group, BTC prices have risen after whale investors have accumulated. In particular, the increase in the group holding 1K-10K BTC has played a trigger role in the price rise. However, recently, the group holding 10K or more BTC, which are ultra-large whale investors, have steadily increased during the bear market in 2022, but the BTC holdings of the group holding 1K-10K BTC, which had the biggest impact on the change in BTC prices, have not increased in quantity and are showing a different pattern from the previous trend of increasing. The reason why the trend of increasing their holdings has collapsed is probably because the inflow of US institutional investors has decreased due to US regulations. Looking at the Geographical Supply Distribution by Entities, you can see that the holdings of US institutions have been declining since April 2021. In addition, the fact that the holdings have decreased even though BTC has risen by 100% this year can also be interpreted as a lack of capital inflow from US institutions. The reason why US institutional inflow is important is because the US dollar, the world's reserve currency, is the asset that has the most impact on the change in BTC prices. This shows that the biggest factor affecting the change in BTC prices is the change in the value of the dollar. However, the SEC's regulations are making US institutional investors feel burdened to invest in crypto, and it seems difficult for a bull market to come until these external factors are resolved. However, onchain cycle indicators, BTC is still in the undervalued area and is in a good position to accumulate from a long-term perspective.
Written by MAC_D
