They’re hiding this, but you deserve the truth.
I’ve been analysing the Q4 earnings for 14 hours and it’s worse than I thought.
If you have any amount of money in a bank account, you need to hear this…
Here’s what I uncovered:
1. THE "A/B NOTE" FRAUD
I found multiple instances of lenders quietly restructuring office loans into A/B Splits.
– The "A-Note": The amount the building is actually worth (paid first).
– The "B-Note": The "Hope Note", a phantom asset they keep on the books at face value, pretending it will be paid back someday.
They’re literally bifurcating the loans to avoid a write-down.
If they marked the B-Notes to zero (where they belong), Tier 1 Capital ratios would crash below 4.5% immediately.
2. THE SILENT LIQUIDITY RUN (FHLB)
Depositors (YOU) are actually at risk, despite FDIC insurance.
The market is obsessed with the Fed Discount Window, but the real death signal is in the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances.
I checked the filings: The FHLB has a statutory 'Super Lien' that most people ignore.
They get paid BEFORE the FDIC if a bank fails.
When the regional banks collapse, the FHLB drains the liquidity first, leaving the insurance fund (and your deposits) holding the empty bag.
This is a senior secured robbery.
3. THE "SASB" CLIFF
Forget the conduit CMBS. The real body count is in the Single Asset Single Borrower (SASB) market.
The delinquency rate on 2021 vintage SASB office paper just crossed 12%.
CHECK THIS OUT:
I found a mid-sized bank carrying a downtown tower at $400/sqft in their Held to Maturity (HTM) bucket.
The building next door just cleared at auction for $80/sqft.
By moving these assets to HTM, they can opt out of AOCI (Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income) recognition.
Translation: They’re legally allowed to ignore the market price as long as they promise never to sell.
BUT THE TRAP IS ALREADY SET…
They’re keeping the stock prices up to trap retail while the insiders offload their toxic paper via Synthetic Risk Transfers (SRT) to private credit funds.
1. Book Value: A lie maintained by A/B splits and HTM accounting.
2. Market Value: ZERO.
They’re shaking the tree one last time to get you to buy the dip...
BUT DO NOT TOUCH IT.
