I was looking at the odds on Polymarket, and it’s interesting how strongly people are leaning one way. Around 93% think the Fed will keep rates exactly where they are in March, while only a small group is expecting a cut. It kind of shows the mood right now. Most people don’t feel a big change coming immediately.
When numbers look that one-sided, it feels like the market is settling into a certain expectation. People aren’t really betting on surprises this time. They’re just watching and waiting, almost like everyone is holding their breath for the next few months to see what really happens.