According to PANews, hedge fund Kerrisdale Capital has disclosed a subtle investment thesis: going long on Bitcoin (BTC) while shorting MicroStrategy stock. The premise is that MicroStrategy, positioning itself as a BTC investment tool, has an unreasonable premium compared to the underlying crypto asset that mainly constitutes its value.
Kerrisdale Capital's analysis states, "MicroStrategy's stock price has soared with the recent rise in BTC prices, but as is often the case with crypto assets, things have gotten out of control." Kerrisdale also highlighted a key difference, pointing out that MicroStrategy's stock price implies a BTC value of "over $177,000, or 2.5 times the spot price of BTC."
In discussing the reasons behind MicroStrategy's stock price premium, Kerrisdale refuted some views supporting the company's market valuation. The report bluntly states, "The reasons for giving a premium to MicroStrategy's stock are not enough to justify paying more than double the price for the same coin."
This statement emphasizes Kerrisdale's stance on MicroStrategy's overvaluation in terms of direct BTC exposure. Since 1989, under the leadership of CEO Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy has been actively accumulating BTC and making it a core pillar of its investment strategy. From August 2020 to 2023, the company conducted significant financial operations to increase its holdings, currently exceeding 214,000 BTC.
Kerrisdale's valuation method considers MicroStrategy's enterprise software business and its BTC reserves. The conclusion drawn from the analysis is that although the software business is still in operation, it "no longer contributes meaningful value to the entire enterprise," highlighting the overwhelming impact of BTC on the company's valuation.
A key criticism from Kerrisdale is the high premium of MicroStrategy's stock relative to its net asset value (NAV). The report notes, "MicroStrategy's stock premium is 2.6 times, which is exceptionally high."
Kerrisdale believes that if MicroStrategy's stock premium rate is adjusted to a more historically consistent level, the stock will experience a significant decline relative to BTC's performance. The report delves into the potential impact of MicroStrategy's financial strategy, including its reliance on leverage and the dilutive effect of its financing mechanisms.
Kerrisdale's analysis indicates that while MicroStrategy has successfully increased its BTC holdings through aggressive capital market activities, the dilutive effects of debt financing and stock issuance have caused the number of BTC per share to stagnate. Finally, Kerrisdale Capital estimates, "If the current 2.6 times premium contract is adjusted to a more historically consistent 1.3 times, MSTR's decline relative to BTC will be 50%." This conclusion is drawn after studying the interactions between MicroStrategy's stock premium, BTC holdings, and broader market dynamics.