MACRO WARNING: BOJ RATE HIKE COULD SHAKE GLOBAL MARKETS
Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates toward 1.00% in April (per major bank forecasts).
That may not sound dramatic.
But history says it is.
Japan hasn’t operated around 1% since the mid-1990s.
And the last time rates were in this zone, global markets were already fragile.
Let’s break this down simply.
In 1994, the bond market experienced what became known as the “Great Bond Massacre.”
Roughly $1.5 trillion in bond value evaporated.
By early 1995, stress intensified.
Then USD/JPY collapsed toward ~79.75 — one of the strongest yen moves in history.
Soon after, the BOJ had to reverse course and cut rates again.
That tells you something important.
When Japan tightens policy during a sensitive macro environment, the impact doesn’t stay inside Japan.
It spreads.
Here’s why that matters today:
🇯🇵 Japan is a global funding hub.
🇯🇵 Japan is one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries (~$1.2T).
🇯🇵 Japanese capital flows influence global liquidity.
If Japan tightens meaningfully:
• Funding costs rise
• Carry trades unwind
• Treasury flows shift
• Risk assets feel pressure
This isn’t about panic.
It’s about liquidity.
Markets rarely price in structural shifts early.
They react when flows move.
Watch:
• USD/JPY
• U.S. bond yields
• Global risk sentiment
• Crypto correlation to liquidity
Macro shifts start quietly.
Then they move fast.
Stay alert.
$BTC $USDC $USDT
#Macro #liquidity #GlobalMarkets #crypto #usdjpy